Bill in MS

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I don't know what the issue w/ LR ext modeling is.  It may just be LR ext modeling is not great during Jan/Feb.  I suspect modeling missed the IO/SOI/MC area forecast.   The anomalous GOA slp during December was not great.  I also think the NAO is terribly difficult to forecast at any range, and that was a big miss.  The NAO could have given us a chance for cold later this winter.  When modeling lost it....flipped warm.  So, I think the combo of difficulty in modeling the NAO and also MC regions modeling failures caused the bust.  The strat split miss probably didn't help.  Guessing we also have an ascending QBO and declining El Nino.  Again, not all El Nino winters are cold and stormy.  We thankfully got a decent, little window.  But the 90s El Nino winters were hot garbage with the exception of a couple of really notable events.  And honestly, outside of last winter, three of the last four winters have had some decent winter weather to track for at least some portion of the forum area.  

We have had great winters the last three years in North Mississippi... 4-6 inch storm last month, 2 inches and then a pretty significant ice storm in 2022- 2023 and 12 inches in one week in 2021-2022.  This has been a great set up for the Western half of the forum.

Blocking is good for something in the Spring... lots of overcast days with temps struggling to get into the 40's and a large upper low that won't move for two or three weeks. And then a hard freeze on the last night because the sky finally clears about 6 PM...  Just in time for radiational cooling to set in.

Late frost/ freezes are a common occurrence in non-water protected areas in the Eastern, Central, and Southern USA. They vary from year to year in severity and damage. Most native trees suffer very little or no noticeable damage until temps get below 28F degrees and even then it depends upon how far along they are in their growing cycle. Duration is also a key factor.  I have seen it go below 28F several nights in a row with highs in the 40's and 50's and there was no discernible damage due to the freeze being only 4 or 5 hours long each night.  The bad years are when it is below freezing by say 10 pm and remains there until 8 or 9 am the next morning.  So 28 degrees for 2-4 hours is no big deal but 28 degrees for 8-10 hours+ can do real damage.

My Mother always said that the purpose of a late freeze is to give the trees - fruits, nuts, mast crop - a needed break from over-fruiting and this is a normal part of nature's cycle.  That being said... every 50 years or so we get a devastating late freeze like April, 2007 that actually kills down to the wood.  I hate those types of years.

Daffodils, Red Maples, and Elm in full bloom over here in North Mississippi.  Forsythia about to bloom. Tulip Magnolias showing large pink buds.

14 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

2” now. Roads aren’t covered here yet.

Any ground reports from Northern Mississippi? Radar looks intense there.

3.5 inches in Hernando total.  Got an inch from this band in about 1.5 hours. .. but back edge coming quick. Points 20-50 miles south of me, in the WSW-ENE band around Batesville, MS to Oxford and then Northeast to just below Corinth seeing at least 1  to 1.5 inch an hour rates with huge flakes. Maybe two inch an hour rates. Also, heavy sleet in some of that banding.

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

1 hour ago, Bill in MS said:

Most Mesoscale models were way off the mark for Desoto County, Mississippi.  Despite snowing all night I have just between 1.5-2 inches.  Many models showed us reaching 7 and 8 inches already.  I will be suprised if we get a storm total of 3 inches.

Some good bands still over Arkansas. You may still do well. That being said, the heavier returns right now are setting up east of you on radar.

The Euro and the NBM did really well with their 3-4 inch predictions for my county.  Thee HRR and NAM etc...were way off.

Most Mesoscale models were way off the mark for Desoto County, Mississippi.  Despite snowing all night I have just between 1.5-2 inches.  Many models showed us reaching 7 and 8 inches already.  I will be suprised if we get a storm total of 3 inches.

3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I haven’t kept up with what should be going on in that area. According to the mods, should it be snowing there?


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Yes.  And these sleet showers seem almost convective.  They are much bigger  pellets now and I can here them pouring on the roof.  I hope I don't lose much QPF to sleet.

Moderate sleet under these returns in North MS 30 minutes south of Memphis..  Very little snow. Looks like all the snow is along and north of I-40. Sleet showers to the south.

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Hopefully you get all snow and it's a lot!

Yes, sir!  Keeps trying to change back to sleet/ snow grains.  Looks like table salt size bouncing on the shingles.

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

How cold are you guys?

23F.

Light, fluffy snow falling now.

Very fine sleet/ice pellets falling here in Hernando, MS.

Concerning to see the Euro spitting out lower snow totals in the Memphis, North MS., and E. AR area over the past day and a half. Wonder if sleet or freezing rain will put a dent into snow totals in the second half of the storm.