matt9697

Yea for those of us in the Nashville area, looks like we have another few hours of at least light snow. I started out this am around 10 I think it made it to 14 now back down to 12.2

Just now, PowellVolz said:

That stuff west of Nashville has exploded the last hour. There was a 50 mile dry slot south of Nashville but it filled in fast.


.

Yea seems to just be regenerating and running over the top of us, course, I am not complaining

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Is anyone in the band north of Nashville? It's showing a 45dbz streak on the NWS radar.

Yea, just posted about it, probably gotten another inch in the last 30 minutes 

We are closing in on 7" with this band that is just sitting over Nashville north wow 

1 hour ago, *Flash* said:

Good morning! I woke up at 6:15 pm CT to 4.1" in White Bluff. We're now at 5.5-6". MUCH more than I expected...

Great! Hopefully everyone will have gotten their snow fix for a few days! 

2 minutes ago, zippity said:

Sorry to hear that. 

We are down to 10.9 from 13 about 4 am 

1 hour ago, Knoxtron said:

This late week/weekend cold front looks brutal! 

 

 

 

What does the crystal ball say for Nashville? 

Just now, matt9697 said:

We seem to be in a lucky spot so far, we continue to have these bands develop over or near us. It is snowing again now. 

Radars look to be filling in - anyone know what that impulse is in Northern Arkansas? 

1 minute ago, Jed33 said:

So far this morning have about 1.25in mostly on the grass with a crunchy ice and scattered snow cover layer on the roads and driveway. 

We seem to be in a lucky spot so far, we continue to have these bands develop over or near us. It is snowing again now. 

21 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Updated call from my guy, Bobby Boyd. This looks about right. @jaxjagman, I'll be riding this out about 4-5 miles SE of Brentwood. 

I have gotten alot more than this forecast; I am just into Sumner County, West of Gallatin and East of White House, likely have close to 5" on the ground

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 3k NAM is currently working its issues out.....

The NAM looks excellent for my area; whether or not it has issues, I guess we will all see at the end which model wins! I wonder if FanDuel has a category for this. We could do an over/under for a number of inches in any one location. 

I have dropped three degrees since I got up @ 430, now down to 22.5 just north of Nashville, don't see us warming a lot today if any 

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

 

Where the NAO block is place matters bigly.   The GEFS is on an island as it places the block slightly further eastward.  The EPS and GEPS are right over Greenland.  On the Alaskan side, we really don't want the ridge over the Aleutians.  It can work provide the NAO is in the right place....but it leaves less room for error.  Both the GEPS/EPS have some iteration of an EPO ridge.  That kicks the cold into the nation's mid-section.  The GEFS likely has more cutters as the SER is visibly present.  The GEPS/EPS is probably more sliders.  Phasing w/ the GEPS/EPS would occur to our south and southeast.  All of that said, a blend of the three models would provide a decent winter wx pattern.

I should not that these are 7 day snapshots and not one day.  I think we will see some variability in reality versus a locked-in pattern.  Cold descending into the Plains and racing eastward is the pattern of my youth.  We get that w/ the GEPS/EPS combo.  The GEFS is more of what has occurred during the past decade.

So which model has been more accurate w/ the MJO?  I don't know.  They have all been pretty bad.  American modeling wants to take the warm tour

 

 

Here are some MJO plots.  In general, the plots where it stalls in 2/3 (or loops)...the better the pattern.  The plots where it goes high amplitude into 4-6, the worse the pattern.  I tend to gravitate to whichever pattern is worse...that will verify.  But that likely is just a hangover from Nina winters.  Truly, the MJO "should" move quickly through 4-6 or resist going there at all.  There should be enough precip in the regions of 8-1-2 (dateline south Hawaii and off the eastern coast of Africa), that it should counter anything firing over Indonesia.  That said, you can see a fairly good connection between the panels above and the ones posted just below.  I have said it before and will say it again, we are going to need an NAO block to get through the second half of January.  So far, it looks promising.

 

 

 

Either way, as has been stated before, at least we have something to watch this season, thanks for your synopsis, it helps with office talk lol 

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I still have my doubts today (different thought than yesterday I know) as to how cold it gets, but there is a chance the PV could get trapped w/ the NAO firing and a slightly displace Alaskan block - a double block.  There is a slight SER showing up(when is there not?), so I am not sure that suppression will be an issue.  Looks like a warm-up from say Jan 8-9, and then cold is replenished.  The MJO is very interesting this morning.  Some modeling has it looping back into 2......That said, there is potential for severe cold...but Nino patterns tend to find a way to moderate cold air, and that isn't always a bad thing if one likes snow.

Right, if it is real cold, things get shunted south of the forum area 

9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Beautiful pattern now after Jan 10.........block city.

Hopefully, the forum area can score some snow on the ground before it gets really cold. 

48 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

6z GFS gives you hope Matthew (so it can take it away later)

 

I like this very realistic (read with sarcasm)

close up snap shot from that run:

There is no way if there is a valley warm nose and a low over Tellico that I'm staying snow, lol. 

Well, it is likely to be a different depiction on the next run but that does look odd; good for my area north of Nashville but like I said, will be different next run 

7 hours ago, John1122 said:

The Canadian follows up the suppressed storm with a perfect Southern slider that would make the whole forum pretty happy. 

Yea been a while since we have had an I-40 special 

10 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

The Hendersonville to Gallatin tornado went less than 1.5 miles from my family home where my dad still resides.  I was busy sending texts to all my friends/family in group chats trying to keep them informed in real time.  The signature on radar was evident well west of Nashville.  For the time of year, I was surprised it held together as well as it did as it slid by just north of Nashville.  Prayers for all those affected and especially those grieving the loss of a loved one today.

Yeah, that one went about three miles south of us; we had hail and, strangely, an absence of any wind at all. 

10 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Well today just reinforces that tornadoes do follow the same paths or very close to the same paths as previous tornadoes. TN also continues its sad trend of tornado deaths. Today also shows that we are nowhere close to understanding why tornadoes happen. 

On a positive note, I bet that those who manufacture and install storm shelters in the area will see an uptick in business for the next few months! 

44 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Some decent looking winter patterns showing up on both the 0z EPS and 0z GEPS in the d12-16 range - decent EPO ridge forming.  The 6z GEFS is torch city w/ a GOA low trying to form and hold.  GOA lows are slow to deteriorate and generally prevent good winter patterns for 4-8 weeks.  My money is on the GEPS/EPS combo....but those two can be pretty abysmal during shoulder season.  Cosgrove last night mentioned that he thought ridging in the West might fire later this month, and has been saying that prior to ensembles showing it.  His analogs have been showing it.   He does mention that the best of winter would likely have to wait until the second half of winter though. 

 One last caveat....when I post my winter forecast ideas in the winter spec thread, I am 100% aware they may be partially or all wrong.  The reason I say that?  When winter starts, I generally don't care if winter moves towards my ideas or not.  Sure, it would be a decent feather in my amateur weather cap, but seasonal forecasts require some good fortune...just think Plinko on the Price is Right.  A seasonal forecast can go poorly right out of the gate if the chip hits a peg and goes the other way.  For now, mine looks right on track...but once we start hashing out storms and 2-4 week weather patterns....I really don't care those ideas fit my seasonal forecast or try to bend my ideas around the seasonal ideas - that is a great way to be wrong most of the time.   So if I call for a warm December, I truly hope December goes cold!  I have my doubts there, but it is GREAT to see two models hinting at an EPO ridge later this month!

I have had more rain here in Northern Middle TN than some in the forum, but we, too, are getting really dry, and there are way too many dry, dry leaves lying around for all of these people driving around and flipping cigarettes out of the window for there not to be issues. We need a pattern flip to some rain at least once a week! 

28 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Not a very exciting look as we head into next weekend and beyond right now

We could use a ten day break where I am at in Sumner county. Cannot recall a August like this before. By now, I can usually fall back to every other week mowing, not this year! 

19 hours ago, John1122 said:

Newest advisory says 20 percent chance of a strong 2+ Nino, general model average is still a peak around November then falling as we head into DJF. The 1.4 to 1.6 range has lined up with some snowy winters here in the past, but as we've learned lately, using the past isn't as accurate a guideline these days as it may have been at one point.

Good information; what are some example years that you are referencing? 

13 hours ago, John1122 said:

I see the new drought monitor came out, after a week of soaking rain, things didn't change across the area. Kinda surprised by that. 

We got rain several times but really wasn't any appreciable amount 

14 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

We sure could use some rain here.Good news it seems a ULL will nose into the Valley in a couple days and head into the southeast states,this should at least keep us in a unsettled pattern for maybe much of the week into the weekend as the PW'S look to be unseasonably high,just need a kicker

Getting fairly dry here in Sumner County as well. Sure do wish we could have had a wet Spring before heading into the hottest time of year! 

26 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Only snow we got was from the Dec early cold snap and that was only a dusting.It was still interesting because i cant ever recall such a active season with LP'S cutting through Alabama and just as well Tn,we usually score here but the cold air was never in place

Yea, the way some landscaping looks, we just came out of a severe winter. In reality it was three days in December.