arlwx12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1045 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

MDZ503-504-VAZ053-501-505-506-526-141645-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Montgomery-Fairfax-Eastern
Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
1045 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

...A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL AFFECT
MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN LOUDOUN...NORTHWESTERN FAIRFAX...NORTH CENTRAL
FAUQUIER AND NORTHWESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES...

Snow will coat the ground in spots late this morning and
temperatures will fall to near freezing while the snow is
occurring. Wind gusts around 30 to 40 mph are expected during this
time and visibility will be reduced to around one-half mile at
times.

Locations impacted include...
Germantown, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Reston, Leesburg, Olney, South
Riding, Herndon, Damascus, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes Island,
Brambleton, Poolesville, Dulles International Airport, Aspen Hill,
Potomac, North Bethesda, Ashburn, and Montgomery Village.

This includes Interstate 270 in Maryland between mile markers 3 and
19.

Be prepared for slippery surfaces when traveling. Slow down and
allow extra time to get to your destination.

That reminds me of two things.

1976/7: I was taken to a party in Northern VA in a restored historic building.

The car got stuck in a ditch, but brute force got it out.

And might have saved my life.

The building burned the next morning. WHAT a welcome to new years?

And 1996: 

I was going to an event in southwestern VA, but chickened out once I saw an inch of snow around Harrisonburg.

And the local stores had not been stripped yet....

17 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

They were saying on a news show that this year's calendar is a repeat of 1996 including being a leap year and it made me think back on how excited I was on January 5, 1996.  We went to a house party the night of the 6th as it was getting going and had a fun drive back to my girlfriend's house (now wife).  What a weekend and week of weather!  I can't believe I have just about exactly doubled my age since then 

Just wrap me and DCA up in a lobe from the DC heat island.

Unwrao me in March.

(later in the month... remember 2014?)

So far, so good.

For warmistas in the DC heat island.

Please have your shovels on standby if Febbbsry materializes.

Oh NOOO! LWX has put a foot on your bandwagon too! (And a foot off it...)

(snip)

A vigorous shortwave in the southern stream will track across Texas
toward the northern Gulf of Mexico Friday night. This will cause
an area of low pressure to form along the Gulf Coast. This area
of low pressure will track northeastward along with its parent
shortwave during the day Saturday into Saturday night, rapidly
intensifying as it does so. While there is still considerable
spread with respect to track six days out, model guidance
generally has the primary low associated with this system
tracking somewhere between the eastern Ohio Valley and the
Carolina coastline, with the majority of guidance showing a
track just off to our south and east. While uncertainty with
respect to track and resultant impacts remains high, the
potential is there for locations to the east of the mountains to
receive their first major snowstorm in two years.

Ensemble guidance (especially the EPS) showed a significant
increase in probabilities for snowfall across the region with the
00z cycle last night. At the moment, the greatest chance for
significant snow appears to be near and west of the Blue Ridge,
while lesser but non-zero probabilities for significant
snowfall exist further east. The track of the low will be
critical, and an all rain scenario is still on the table to the
east of the Blue Ridge. If that were to occur, there could
potentially be issues with flooding as well. We`ll continue to
keep an eye on this system over the upcoming week, as the
potential is there for it to have a significant impact across
the entire forecast area.

(snip)

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
101 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

WVZ512-514-300315-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0021.231230T0600Z-231231T0000Z/
Eastern Preston-Eastern Tucker-
Including the cities of Thomas, Hazelton, Canaan Valley,
Rowlesburg, Terra Alta, and Davis
101 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4
  inches.

* WHERE...Eastern Preston and Eastern Tucker Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Charleston WV
345 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

WVZ522-523-526-300445-
/O.CON.KRLX.WW.Y.0021.231230T0600Z-231231T0000Z/
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Randolph-
Including the cities of Snowshoe and Harman
345 PM EST Fri Dec 29 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Southeast Webster, Northwest Pocahontas and Southeast
  Randolph Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow showers will increase in coverage
  overnight and continue through the day on Saturday.

As a warminsta, I'll take the GFS's claim that there's no real threat until MLK weekend.

Sorry (not) for the delay...

A light cartopping about 100' elevation.

((WTOP just announced DCA got 0.1"))

For those of you despairing:

Wait until the end of Febrruary.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected, with accumulations of 3 to 6 inches.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In Virginia, Western
  Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Grant and Western
  Pendleton Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday
  morning commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may linger into the day Wednesday.

WWA up for the far western ridges.

(They can keep it, at least until my doctors poke me and I can stock up and snooze...)

IF the snowlovers verify, can I please get someone to shovel me out??

With the latest dewpoints at DCA down to 7...

BRR! BRR! BRR!

At least around DCA it's not sxxx or ixx. Today.

I would have busted if I'd had had the opportunity to post in time.

IAD 10/31

BWI 10/31

RIC 11/7

BUT

DCA 11/15

And the leaves go tumbling down...

It tumbled.

NWS reports DCA hit 32 at 1800.

NWS reported DCA only reached 33.

Looks like a freeze lock for tomorrow, though.

For you snowlovers:

Please explain why you are forecasting more than two inches above climo.

I'm a warminista.

Last year was a pleasant surprise ((for me)).

I'm just wondering if the over-the hill- er over-40s- are as enthusiastic about sxxx as the younger ones are.

I just forecast my perceptions of climo, trimmed a bit (have to be optimistic...)

On 11/13/2023 at 1:04 PM, GATECH said:

Just need to get to Nov 27th....then I can move on to winning the snowfall contest.

You have a slim chance, but...

NWS is currently claiming there are freeze chances for the mornings of 25, 26 and 28 Nov.

As a warminista, I loved last winter.

But I suspect payback.

SO:

BWI: 17

DCA: 14

IAD: 20

RIC: 10

SBY: 10

(may it be much less again)

9 minutes ago, yoda said:

Kind of odd RIC would get a freeze before DCA?

Looks like DCA was 34

Not that odd.

The Richmond airport is about 5 miles away from downtown.

And it isn't on a major river.

DCA is on a major river, and near the center of a big urban heat island.

Just about all the local DC/MD/VA areas that stayed above freezing were "next" to the water.

NWS reported BWI hit 32 at 0720.

Heat advisory up for DC and points west.

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