blackngoldrules

I live about a mile from where that tornado touched down but I happened to be at the Pirate game dealing with a rain delay. I just drove through there today and there's debris and trees down everywhere. A lot of clean up going on.

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Absolutely gross outside this morning, 36 with cold rain / wind / graupel / snow / mud. 
Anyone planning to travel for Eclipse totality? Im tentatively thinking Meadville-ish area, get 2+ minutes of totality and a headstart South from all the people in Erie. Cloud cover not looking the best, but not total overcast. Hope it gets better as we close in.

Yeah, I'm thinking about heading up that way on Monday since I'll be off. I hope the clouds won't be too bad. Once in a lifetime experience. Why not. When the last one happened 7 years ago and I saw that the next one was going to be close, I told my wife that we should go up there for this one. Well, she's going to have to see it from Heaven but she'll also be with me in spirit to watch it.

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Yeah, flooding is the main concern now. Heavy rain moving over the same areas.

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Things may change, but it's looking like nothing will be severe here. Atmosphere just too stable with all the cloud cover. Maybe some strong storms for some of us but that looks like that might be it. Yeah, it seems like when these things are forecasted, they usually fizzle out while we get nasty weather unexpectedly in other cases. Again, just looking at things as they stand now.

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This has really trended well for us. I think the forecast just a couple days ago was saying less than an inch.

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This guy put out a "first call" map for what it's worth. Still so much uncertainty with this. I think maps like this are going to change a lot between now and the event.

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Not sure if I've ever seen the models this far apart this close to a potential storm. I guess still a lot of uncertainty how this is going to set up and such a high margin of error. Whoever gets the big snows from this is going to be lucky. I'm starting a new job on Tuesday. Would be my luck if THIS one would happen to nail us! Lol

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Still a long long way out

 

I noticed that the Kuchera has it at 4.3 inches. Is it picking up on this maybe being a low ratio snowfall?

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Good assessment. I’m going to try to enjoy some longer walks with the dog, and hope for a kick ass final 5-6 weeks.

Yeah, you gotta try and take the positive out of it. It's out of our control anyway. I have some things I need to do on my truck and I'm not working for another 12 days. Starting a new job. So, I'll take advantage of it not being brutally cold at least and the days starting to get a little longer now. It'll be a little easier on the heating bill. No salt stuck to our cars eating away at them. It's all how you look at things. I really enjoyed that snow a couple weeks ago, but I'm OK with this too.

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Also, glad we missed out on the freezing rain, but is there a reason the advisory is still going? We’ve been above freezing the whole time, haven’t dropped below freezing, and won’t drop below freezing.

I think they've dropped it since your post but I know you can still get freezing rain when the air temp is above freezing. Surfaces can still be at or below freezing so they probably keep it up for a while in case of that. Now, we're well above freezing and it all shifted more north than they thought, so thankfully no freezing rain here with this one. A lot of melting to come. And I need to get the damn salt off of my truck! Lol

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8.25 is what I measured in my yard. Far southern part of Bethel Park

5” of that coming over the span of 5 hours this evening

Craziness in that band of LES

I was happy with the 3.25 that fell all day.


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Congrats neighbor! Lol We usually get left out or get the WTOD around here, but really cashed in on this one.

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Almost 8 inches here. Never expected this.

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I’ll let you know what I have. That band was awesome. I wouldn’t be surprised if I have a similar number outside.


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I'll measure too in a bit. I'm still getting it. I'm right on the Washington county border.

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South Hills is getting walloped right now.

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I don't know if any of you belong to this guy's Facebook page at all or what you think of him, but this is his call as of this morning.

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It'll be nice to have an event where we don't have to worry about mixing or changeovers. Last weekend's storm kinda screwed us in the southern areas, but the early week event was a nice surprise with all snow. Looks like this will be more of the same with amounts maybe a little better than the last one.

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In all honesty, I am thinking that the NWS is being conservative with the 2" call. The track of the storm looks good. Lets hope is gains a little more strength and maybe we squeeze a 4-6" surprise out of this. 
 
It is sad that I am hoping for a 4" storm, but that is where we are at...We will get there eventually

It's funny, earlier my NWS forecast actually had amounts in it totaling 4 to 8 inches for the event. They've since taken that out of the forecast probably realizing they jumped the gun with the amounts. I thought it seemed kinda high.

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Hug the Canadian!

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Seeing some pretty good squalls moving through right now. If only one of these could last about 6 hours instead of 6 minutes, we'd be golden! Lol

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At least there's something still on the table with most of them. Euro is the outlier right now.

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I feel like maybe the GFS handled the last storm better than the others, so maybe some hope for early next week? Would like to see the Euro catch on to it as well then maybe it'll be game on. Still time yet like everyone is saying. It'll be interesting to see the upcoming trends on this one.

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I used to post all the time.. I need to get into it again. Hopefully this active pattern brings me back


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I used to post a lot more as well. Not to keep beating a dead horse, but I've had to deal with some personal things the past few years that have taken me away from the hobby. I can say though that those personal things have made me appreciate life a lot more now, so things like missing a snowstorm just don't hurt anymore. It's no big deal to me anymore. When I pop back in here, I just want to enjoy the discussions and tracking and not make it stressful if things go against us.

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Back in Bethel. Looks like a light snow sleet mix here. Mostly sleet. Warm tongue definitely working its way in. Was raining in Washington.

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Light rain in Washington now. Heading back up to Bethel now to get away from this. Lol

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Back to a snow sleet mix down here in Washington, but we're getting close to the end for this round anyway, with the dry slot getting closer. Those big flakes were nice to watch. It's been a while.

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