snowman33

2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Sorry lakefront, you only get 8”

Looking at the depth change map, it seems like areas farther north in Wisconsin get screwed more, possibly due to a longer fetch over the warm water. Temps in downtown Chicago when the 1st wave starts are still near/at freezing.

1 minute ago, DocATL said:

Bullseye for central and north metro.


.

Lakefront peeps like meet the new storm, same as the old storm.

1-3" on the lakefront, rising to 6-10" inland seems like a good bet.

NAM north/amped.

It'll be historic all right... a historic paste job.

12/26/09 is an event that comes to mind that had an extreme gradient through the Chicago metro.

DVN is out to lunch. 18 inches on their graphic. 

Something that has been discussed in the past for different storms - could convection in the warm sector lead to a more suppressed solution? SPC has an enhanced risk for tomorrow.

If I was in McHenry County I'd be feeling pretty good right now. In downtown Chicago not so much. Well, we can't say we haven't been through plenty of storms like that.

On 3/8/2023 at 9:24 PM, snowman33 said:

Not an expert by any means, just part of we the people... but I have lived in LOT my entire life and I think the office has done a terrible job with headlines this winter, well below their average. Lake, McHenry, and even Northern Cook should be under a Winter Storm Warning if you ask me. I bet we'll be seeing plenty of 6"+ reports out of this region Friday morning. Too much pessimism and not enough objectivity.

+SN

18 minutes ago, wintertime said:

The general public? Like they care. If you're not a weather fanatic like the people on this and other weather forums who cares? The public knows it's going to snow whether it's a WAA or WSW. It's Chicago. It's Milwaukee. It's winter. It snows.

By this logic we should do away with all headlines. Could you imagine GHD 1 with no headlines at all? Just "It's Chicago. It's Milwaukee. It's winter. It snows."

Event starts in less than 12 hours. Then we'll see what happens.

2 hours ago, OHweather said:

The pre-Christmas storm was absolutely worth Winter Storm Warnings btw...it wasn't much snow (yes, less than expected), but it was blowing around quite a bit for a day and a half with brutal wind chills. There was a prolonged period where travel was hazardous in any kind of open/windy area with dangerous cold causing infrastructure issues. It was a distinctly elevated risk to life and property for those not prepared for the conditions and lasted a solid day and a half. It was worth the warnings even if the impacts weren't as significant as what looked possible a couple days out. 

For this one, it's the short duration and marginal boundary layer that's the issue. The lift and moisture are good, agree with Stebo there should be some banding on the east/northern flanks, but it just won't last long and won't be extremely efficient so it'll be hard for many to get 6"+. It'll snow hard and be a wet/picturesque snow (though not quite as wet as last Friday's) but the totals will mainly be in the 3-6" range IMO. The area that could *locally* get 6"+ is near the western Lake MI shoreline where some lake enhancement will be in play, especially if banding can pivot over that general area. That'd be enough for a narrow 6"+ lolli just inland from the lake in WI or NE IL. 

Isn't snow/blowing snow and cold wind chills just common winter weather though? You even said it wasn't as significant. Also, don't we have wind chill headlines for this kind of thing? Wouldn't that be easier for the public to understand? Advisory/warning for snow amounts and advisory/warning for wind chills.

It's water under the bridge at this point. Just felt the need to state my opinion.

And honestly, it was a typo but I have indeed "lived" in the AFD to an extent by reading it all the time. The headlines are based too heavily on feelings now, that's my complaint. It is called atmospheric science.

7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

(headlines are not always issued based on amount criteria anymore, though).

Clearly that's the case, if a couple of inches of snow, cold wind, and Christmas hype results in a Winter Storm Warning.

Not an expert by any means, just part of we the people... but I have lived in LOT my entire life and I think the office has done a terrible job with headlines this winter, well below their average. Lake, McHenry, and even Northern Cook should be under a Winter Storm Warning if you ask me. I bet we'll be seeing plenty of 6"+ reports out of this region Friday morning. Too much pessimism and not enough objectivity.

14 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Guys. Look at this grey. FUCKING INCREDIBLE! 
 

 

god I’m so salty about this one. 

Don't worry, our early May dusting is coming.

Already have a dusting IMBY. HRRR isn't showing snow here until 2pm-3pm.

Just now, Kaner88 said:

Question becomes, what happens if the Euro goes with the GFS? And to a smaller (but more likely) degree, what do we do if the Euro kinda ticks west to a middle zone between non-GFS 0z guidance and the GFS? Places Chicago in a tricky spot.

Winter Storm Warning for 3-7".

Ride GFS Kuchera!

I see what the models are really trying to say...

Merry Christmas ya filthy animal!

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Caught this in the writeup for the Drought Monitor.  Even an inch of rain per week at this time of year probably isn't enough to keep up, especially when temperatures are hot.

One report out of Missouri estimated the total weekly loss of surface moisture to be around 1.75 inches.

One could say we're living in some dtrying times.

I lived through nearly three straight months of no precip last year. Wake me up when that happens again. Some oaks are struggling but hickories are fine this year. Fortunate we got good rains this past week.

Just got smoked... guess the stock market's CAPE isn't the only thing that popped today.