Jet Stream Rider

2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

A lot of people are reading to much into the wobbles right now,the last few frames show a more WNW motion.....the storm is suppose to still be mostly W right now and its right on the GFS track which doesnt get it to 26N until 63W so thats mostly WNW from here....but the Euro and GFS tracks dont differ that much in the short term so its not favoring the Euro by staying west right now...

Yes agreed, its a good point. I thought about that as well. Everyone is looking for anything to hang our hat on. We will likely be watching for just how much will the high pressure ridge break down and how fast will the more northern component take over (if at all) even as it approaches landfall on Thursday. 

Just a couple of notes: Thank you again everyone for all the great posts! Thank you Solak for all the latest info!

The previous advisory showed a WNW direction I think and now we are back to straight W. Maybe just a transient variation, but something to watch. As No snow for you noted above, this would favor the more suppressed track of the Euro.

Hello everyone and thanks for all the great posts! I wish we were tracking a nice snow event rather than this hurricane.

For those that have not experienced this, take it seriously. I was in the decaying eye wall of Fran in central NC and it was the most chaotic weather conditions I have ever experienced. Got a tree on my roof. Its not a place you want to be unless you are well prepared with good shelter, food and alternative power generation.

Where ever that eye wall goes as it disintegrates will be trouble.

Good luck to everyone.

13 hours ago, jburns said:

 

Looks like a Raven.

Thunder at 8am here in eastern NC

An amazing low pressure system. Just one section of its left "arm" stretches across half the east coast of the US. Interior sections did not do well with accumulations. And I suppose we should discuss the "Snow Hole" phenomena. It is certainly something more than just the urban heat island effect. Maybe something geographical? Strange.

Just noting that this winter we now have had a relatively rare Atlanta and vicinity snow storm, and a relatively rare Coastal Plain snow storm. Will we have another relatively rare event I wonder? Or maybe a more standard interior snow to close down that dang Wake county snow hole.

Getting up this morning and seeing my temperature so low triggered a memory of when I was a boy and we had a slp way down off Florida and it was 11 degrees here.

The most beautiful perfect onset a few hours later as tiny ice crystals began to fall. Over the next few hours that transitioned into bigger and bigger flakes until the afternoon when we had a full on blizzard - with official blizzard warnings from the NWS.  Ended up over a foot. That must have been the early to mid 70s. That was the biggest snow I had experienced in this area until Jan 2000.

We got the block, and its sitting right on top of us. Impressive large sprawling air mass.

20 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Boom goes the GFS!

It went boom alright, it just blew the **** up totally. lol We need something from the tropic of Capricorn region maybe.

That clipper entering Indiana/Ohio Valley region just now will get shredded by the mountains I know - but still might clip me for a flurry this evening!

Ought to get great ratios with the snow maker machine with this air mass :/ 

Dang it!

Wonder how accurate this will be. 15z tomorrow. HRRR is similar

Dry slot and the weak slp is transitioning from the gulf to the Atlantic across the Fla peninsula

I agree the RGEM handled the system pretty well 24-36 hrs out so far. However, it missed the dividing line a bit in my area. Showed me in the liquid for the duration other than the final wrap around. But missed it by what looks to be 20-30 miles at this point. The freezing line is now south and east of me! I have accumulating snow!

Yeah, that backside on this one really seems to be persistent. Still some snow in LA, MS, and AL at this hour.

Might be in the game after all, sleeting here now. Apologies for the banter mods and admins.

That area of cold air advection looks like it is downsloping off the frozen mountains.

For the other folks on the borderline or just interested: Current 850 temp advection. That blue cold air advection  area has just popped up very close to the area of waa.

Got some sleet mixed in with the rain just now with heavier rates. Air temp is 38

It would be typical climo for the mountains to get a moderate snow event and not much anywhere else for this sort of weak lp system with basically no CAD in place. Its the snow in the deep south over the last 24 hours that keeps the sense of maybe something more alive.

I'm close but no cigar either guys. Just too close to coast for me, whatever warm nose slight as it is keeping me in the upper 30s temp and so is the dewpoint. I guess enough cold dry air could get here at 925 and agree that might get some backend here as well. NAM showed my area in the rather small sleet pocket later today, so we shall see.

925 current: http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17#

Click on the Upper air -925 tab

looks nasty as **** on those latest hrrr maps. RDU up to just south of Roanoke Rapids looks to be a mixed mess. mby might end up being just north of it, and we know what that means. I'll take measurements if it materializes.