Jet Stream Rider

1 hour ago, landof2rivers said:

Is there a better place to check for rainfall totals for my zip code? Weather underground says 1.80” for the last 24 hours and I find that hard to believe. The pasture in front of my house next to the Dan is flooded and many roads and low areas are flooded between Eden and Martinsville. The Smith and the Dan are both  running very high.

This site is pretty good. https://climate.ncsu.edu/

Ended up with about 3 here. Looks like jackpot with this system was well south of here. We never got the frontogenesis across large areas of the state that the models showed, slp was weaker and further east and south. The shear from the st jet that gave us all the over-running early, hampered the coastal development I think. Nice marginal event though. One of the best snows for looking great in the trees in a while!

Thanks for all the diligent tracking folks!

Trees from the front yard:

17 minutes ago, goldman75 said:

What is this possible pivot you guys are talking about?  Is it something similar to a hurricane wobble?  This pivot is suppose to help snow out east?  Thanks for any clarification

The coastal slp (surface low pressure) will add an eastern component to the air flow for areas north of the slp. That can cause the eastward progression of the precipitation field to slow down, halt, and even fill-in in some cases - resulting in an apparent pivot of the precip shield. This is forecast to be a relatively weak low and developing relatively far off shore, hence why I say it likely will not affect anyone west of say Raleigh imo. 

9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

CJ, our local met, just said the coastal is going to slow down the back edge of our precip s eastward progression, even said wraparound for our area! what a 

Thats the idea, looks to maybe be a bit too far east to do too much beyond the enhancement in downeast NC. We will have to see once it develops though. Still some variability and chances for folks for the next 6 hours or so.

Coastal SLP starting to develop now at 1014.

Had occasion to drive across town just now. Some accumulation on the roads now. Snowing light to moderate at 32.

Big flakes in light to moderate snow. dusting on vegetative surfaces. Down to 32.

Moderate snow now, 35. No accumulation

Mixed precip rn, ip, sn started here 20min ago in northeastern NC.

In the eyewall wow!

12 minutes ago, jtgus said:

Where is the ULL currently?

There are at least two parts to it. The first part is the original west coast energy that spawned our slp (now off the NC coast), and that is being sheared as it traverses the mountains. The second part is dropping down the backside of the trough and the 2 will begin to interact.

HRRR 9z-15z Monday depiction - Thats tomorrow morning

18 minutes ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said:

True, but it is interesting. Didn't the NAM verify the best for the last nights/today's band of snow/sleet/freezing rain? And didn't it nail the warm nose? Don't know for sure, but I think it did better than any other model. 

HRRR did better with placement of transition zone and timing for my area.

35 minutes ago, cmh90 said:

I’ll eat my own shoe if that happens!

Are you familiar with film maker Werner Herzog?

Noticed some models reacting to the original upper level energy crossing NC tomorrow as the late diving ull from Canada rounds the bend to our south.

Some localized area blobs of hot pink color maxing the snow range on the legend.

27 minutes ago, Poimen said:

A question: I'm wondering if the last few cases of warm noses winning out occurred in conjunction with a similar well-placed CAD? 

Also; even with a well placed CAD with very cold air, it will hug the surface and the warm nose will flow right over it resulting in copious sleet or freezing rain. So yeah, the warm nose always wins if it is there at all.

14 minutes ago, Poimen said:

A question: I'm wondering if the last few cases of warm noses winning out occurred in conjunction with a similar well-placed CAD? 

Its a good question. My general thinking is that this situation is maybe not a great example of well placed CAD just because the air mass is marginal in its coldness.

Also, warm noses are more pronounced with a vigorous slp that is sub 1K and is riding up the coastline. In that case you have strong east or southeast winds that bring an intense warm air temperature advection from the coastal flow.

In this case with the slp being rather weak and having a more suppressed track with a more easterly trajectory, the warm nose is less pronounced and is more associated with the slp air mass itself rather than bringing in a massive amount of coastal air.

My thinking, Mets or others please feel free to correct this.

This morning the NWS moved my county (Halifax) into the WSW area. I'm right on the edge of the piedmont, nothing but coastal plain to my east, so of course I expect a mix with sleet and rain. that initial hit though looks substantial. 

We have our slp just west of New Orleans this morning, here we go! Good luck everyone!

8 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

Why can't you post the maps? 

Free sites like Tropical Tidbits, Weathernerds, or Pivotalweather have only the free ECMWF products, other services like precip panels are pay only.

Basically every model every run, this thing comes in like a hammer. Radar looks it too.

Not sure. Can't see the Euro precip maps

0z Euro looks really accelerated 

Euro at 48, the slp already south of Cape Lookout

Upper level feature still back in the vicinity of southern New Mexico. Wow. The system is really stretched out.

10 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I really think the wx offices are gonna need to accelerate their WSWs.  RAH has a 1am Sunday morning start for the Triad.  Seems much much quicker than that on radar.  I'd bet we see winter conditions spread across the area by 6pm tomorrow.  GFS hinted at it, radar certainly shows it, maybe it nailed the OTS quicker solution!?

That trough means business. Thats a 1015 surface low pressure south of Houston now. About 6 hrs or so ahead of schedule I think.