Avon

Almost 100 strikes/min with this complex of storms in Michigan, pretty good stuff

Nice storm moving towards the north side of Flint, Probably has some good size hail with it

Tornado warning issued for Monroe County Michigan

A tight couplet moving east

Couple tornado warnings issued for Clare, Osceola counties in northern Michigan 

I think Grand Rapids area may have a greater risk for a tornado as helicity looks pretty good in that area

Looks like a rare day three update by spc has a marginal risk out now

Here is a 12z 3k nam sounding in Grand Rapids for tuesday afternoon

The nam is kind of looking interesting for Tuesday afternoon/evening

What a disappointment for the past two days in SE Michigan for severe storms.

Storms crap the bed twice trying to get here despite good instability. What a waste of energy ☠️

Update from Grand Rapids.....

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI

UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

Latest 12Z guidance is continuing the farther north trend of the
most severe convection later tonight, even hinting at the
possibility of a derecho impacting much or parts of wrn Lwr MI.
Since this is a potentially high impact severe weather event
while many folks will be sleeping, communication/messaging the
possibility of high/destructive winds this afternoon/evening will
be critical.

Timing looks to be similar, with potential for a large bow echo
sweeping across Lk MI toward or after midnight. Also some
potential for the warm advection wing ahead of the main line
becoming active a couple hours beforehand. If that does occur, we
could have some tornado potential with discrete cells since the
warm front will be draped over the area. HRRR has 0-1km SRH of
150-200 m2/s2 with LCLs below 1km. A QLCS-type tornado threat may
also develop/exist within the main line.

Also of note, in terms of the straight line wind potential, HRRR
shows 70 kts at 3 km, of potential descending rear inflow into
the back of that line. So some isolated pockets of destructive
80+ mph winds seem plausible later tonight.

As far as heavy rainfall/flooding concerns, some intense rainfall
rates are likely as the strong/svr convection is coming through
tonight, although the progressive nature of the MCS may limit
the overall flooding risk. That said, some urban flooding -
possibly worthy of areal flood advisories/warnings - may also be
needed.

Hmmm.....a notable eastward shift in the placement of the mcs on 0z hrrr run. Would put more of Michigan in play if it were to verify

The Nam is going wild again with the parameters for this wed/thurs setup like it did saturday, only going to take it with a grain of salt though until further model agreement is established.

Quite the severe weather event for southeastern Michigan yesterday. The environment became quite unstable with high cape/strong shear and no interruption from earlier storms. As a result, storms exploded and became tornadic as they moved southeast towards Detroit. Very fun day to watch unfold.

Hello I'm just a random person interested in the weather/severe weather

The Nam is going bonkers this Saturday with strong instability and decent shear over Michigan while

the Gfs/Euro is more subdued. Will have to wait for the models to come to agreement in the coming days right now SPC only has a marginal for day 3

Edited: The nam could also just be an outlier