Dbullsfan22

just let me know when it is supposed to hit Tampa 

So after all the noise and hoopla when push comes to shove, Tampa not even in the cone as we get down to the wire… chalk another W up for history and probability, but I guarantee next year when this happens again, Myself and everyone else will get sucked back in to believing maybe this is the one. 

Someone on the main thread mentioned key west webcams, anyone have a link to those?

9 minutes ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

Pinellas sheriff said earlier that it’s happening for Zones A-C tomorrow

Pinellas just announced Zone A and all trailers tonight at 6 PM. Zones B and C tomorrow morning at 7 AM. 

Well whatever happens I’ll be riding it out here in Lutz/Land o’lakes area. Just stocked up on sandbags for the patio today. Should be an interesting next 72 hours one way or another. 

Yea in a span of 6 hours we have gone from devistating major Hurricane gonna drown the Bay forever to, hopefully I get some rain for my garden… safe to say the Pirate Guardians of the Bay come through again 

Getting to the point the main thread is getting confusing… 2 post says Tampa doom and gloom, than the next Tampa completely safe, than doom and gloom and than 2 more saying it’s gonna completely miss and go way west. 

This latest cone with it being a major just barely off the coast of the Tampa Bay Area will catch peoples attention if it hasn’t already 

Maybe I’m just a super weenie nobody experienced wants to respond to but I was hoping for some responses from the Ian to Tampa crowd from my post in the banter thread, I posted it over there to not clutter over here, but it seems a lot of calling for a hurricane to a place that hasn’t been hit with one in 100 years. The odds just don’t seem likely 

So I have a somewhat in my opinion legit question about the models and the Mets/experienced people in here. My background is mostly in sports vs Science and I’ve been trying to think of a comparison to the phenomenon that is the Tampa hurricane drought. The one I could think of is the Harlem Globetrotters/Washington Generals games of the past. The comparison is that even though it was “competitive” game the Globetrotters always won, was it possible that the Generals could win, yeah but it was a 0.0001% outcome. For whatever reason that is like a land falling Hurricane in Tampa. It has been 101 years since the last one of any size (correct me if my history is off) and only twice in the past 174 years has there been a land falling major Hurricane. In comparison there have been 176 land falling hurricanes in the continental US over that 101 years.

so the question(s) are this. Do the models take in this type of history or is every storm looked at in a time and space vacuum based off the current conditions? And for the experienced people/Mets that have been calling for this as a Tampa landfall, do you mostly ignore the historical data as just coincidence and if the data for this specific storm (or the next that models have going toward Tampa) just trust the data. I hope this doesn’t come across too confusing or negative toward the science or your opinions but to me on the surface, expecting a Tampa area landfall would be like going into a Globetrotters/Generals game truly believing that the Generals were going to win. 

I hope the Tampa folks didn’t waste too much money, like I’ve been saying since the start. Every year this happens, every year Tampa is gonna go under water because of some hurricane, every year it goes north or south or west hell one of these times one might just flush itself right into the sea. By this time tomorrow we won’t even be inside the cone at all anymore. 

Interesting, reason I love this place learn something new all the time. Thank you 

10 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

The cone is always the same size, lil homie

I’m referring to the width, some storms have tighter likely range of outcomes. This one still spans the entire state almost 

The size of the cone just goes to show how much uncertainty there is with this storm. Will it hit somewhere in Florida, probably but way too early to know where. 

14 minutes ago, Prospero said:

If that trend keeps going, we'll be hoping for at least some rain in Tampa Bay. But this September has been the wettest I remember. This is usually a DRY month except Tropical Systems!

Are you surprised? It probably rained more today than it will as a result of this storm in Tampa. 

Is anyone besides Josh chasing this one? Hoping for some good streams 

9 minutes ago, Chuck said:

My mom and dad moved there when my dad retired after 46 years with Sears, the last bunch being a regional manager. He did extensive interviews and research as to the safest place in Florida from hurricanes. Everyone said the Tampa area so he bought property and had a home built on the edge of Spring Hill. He chose Florida as being free from income taxes and plenty of good places to golf. Mom wasn't as happy moving from Pennsylvania and children and grandchildren. 

There isn’t a safer place in the world from tropical cyclones. Heck even Antarctica st this point. Whether you credit pirate graves or coral reefs, the Tampa area has a magical vortex that I don’t expect to be penetrated in my lifetime 

Anyone within 100 miles of Tampa shouldn’t be shocked this is gonna maybe hit the OBx r miss Fl completely. Nothing ever comes near Tampa…ever 

Every year there are 1-2 storms that threaten Tampa, every year they go to the panhandle or the LA/MS area. I’ll believe it 2 days after landfall if a storm actually directly hits Tampa or anywhere within 100 miles of Tampa. 

Only optimistically 

1 minute ago, Prospero said:

I took down umbrellas, even way up here in Tampa Bay. Put a few yard decorations in safer places.

Right now, nice and calm, slight PTC1 breeze. Will be asleep when something could blow through. No concerns, but always better safe than sorry.

 

 

 

From the looks of it I’m starting to doubt we even get much if any rain up here just north of Tampa unless it wobbles hard to the north. 

Interesting weather, I was out at the beach all day in Clearwater about an hour away from my house in Northern Tampa/Wesley Chapel area. Tons of sun and no rain at the beach, about 1/2 way home starts to rain, by the time I’m home I have a flooded back yard and street. So whatever band or outskirts hit this area must have hit pretty good. Still some Thunder/lightning and light rain 

Just saw the headline on TWC “power outages and downed trees expected” that seems like stuff they say in cat 1’s. I imagine downed trees are gonna be the least of a lot of people’s problems unfortunately 

Got it thanks, I’ve never ventured out of this sub forum so didn’t even know such a thing existed 

What is going on, why isn’t this thread more popular? Potential US landfall hurricane and it’s crickets? Where is everyone