wizards93939

Yesterday's 12z run had this as a much stronger tropical cyclone than the current state and today's 12z initialization.

If its overamplifying it initially, that's why it survives the track.

However if you continue to decrease the cyclone intensity within each run, it will suddenly poof the system in the Caribbean .  This is due the mid level vort and low level vort not really established, then you add the extra trade winds and they further decouple then they try to go over terrain ( which can slow them down and organize) , but the shear near the US is not favorable so that then negates it.

Just now, David-LI said:

Euro showed nothing last run. I trust the king.

Gfs is good with tropical cyclones when it has the Ukmet on its side.

When it doesn't go with the Ecmwf. Seen this with Irma , Harvey and Issias and other storms recently. 

        TROPICAL STORM ELSA       ANALYSED POSITION : 10.1N  50.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 01.07.2021    0  10.1N  50.4W     1011            33
    0000UTC 02.07.2021   12  11.5N  54.2W     1010            35
    1200UTC 02.07.2021   24  12.5N  59.1W     1009            41
    0000UTC 03.07.2021   36  14.2N  64.5W     1008            42
    1200UTC 03.07.2021   48  16.1N  69.6W     1008            42
    0000UTC 04.07.2021   60  17.3N  73.8W     1009            37
    1200UTC 04.07.2021   72  18.6N  76.8W     1008            40
    0000UTC 05.07.2021   84  19.5N  79.6W     1009            34
    1200UTC 05.07.2021   96  21.0N  82.5W     1012            32
    0000UTC 06.07.2021  108              CEASED TRACKING