WeatherWeenie87

I'm snow chasing next winter! Going to the Ice Hotel! 

NAM sucks me right back in  What's that song called "I knew you were trouble when you walked in" 

Amazing snow map! Would be fantastic if verified! 

I don't know why this is a surprise to everyone. The SE is warming year over year and dew points are rising also. We will have more and more mixing issues and the warm nose will increase in intensity. The fact the mountains has been blessed with this much snow and the SE hasn't torched as badly this year is a miracle. Always something to be thankful for. 

2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Wrong storm. There’s a thread for the weekend event.

So many threads for these storms  Guess that's a good problem to have!

13 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

The 1034 MB high over NYS isn’t optimal?

it's actually 1044

This time it looks like we will not have the marginal cold issues to deal with. I know lakes lows have screwed us over the last few years. 

13 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It is but I would rather see 1040's.

This is true, but it's also about the gradients.

The ups and downs this season is worse than the ups and downs in Days of Our Lives. It sucks there is not as much data going into the models to produce accurate results. I hope the Triad folks get a snowy surprise this weekend! 

The a branch breaker for sure! Better charge your phones! 

Never seen so many Miller A rainstorms in 1 model run for AVL. I'm happy to just seen snow this winter. Always something to be thankful for. 

Amazing trends! Classic CAD and Miller A!

Amazing Run for the GFS! So many opportunities! 

Can't get a better look than this 

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

I do not think it is all liquid ***in this set up*** and longer range models are notoriously poor at picking up CAD. Definitely not a lock to be a rain event as depicted on the models. Need to watch this 

It's not appropriate to judge what the exact p-type will be this far out. That is a clear CAD signature with a Miller A on the GFS. It's also depicted on the Euro. 

I'm amazed nobody is talking about the system for next week! Banana 1050+ High!

If I recall, the winter storm we had last night was not picked up by models until 4-5 days in advance. Less planes = Less accurate results. 

Quote

The COVID-19 pandemic is not only having an impact on ECMWF as an organisation. The measures taken to contain it have led to a marked drop in the availability of some types of Earth system observations, especially aircraft-based observations. Such observations help us to accurately determine the state of the Earth system at the start of forecasts. Studies carried out at ECMWF have shown that, without aircraft-based observations, the quality of forecasts at cruising altitude can drop by up to 15%. The quality of near-surface weather predictions can also go down, by up to about 3%.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/163/editorial/ecmwf-and-covid-19

43 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I got screwed again but at least it snowed some. I have never had a winter with this many 1 to 2 inch events in quick succession.

It's really been remarkable. It's been awhile since I seen storms training like this. 

The Asheville Heat Dome never fails!

Heavy Snow in Asheville! 

Looks like this may be a severe event for the OBX. Things are trending stormy....

NAM has been verifying rather warm lately....

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Hi Res Nam has me going to rain. The low in TN Is still wreaking havoc 

It's a Miller B setup. 

The NAM features a cold front coming from the gulf LOL  Think this may be a outlier. 

Here are the locations expected to receive snowfall... 

0=0%

1=100%

HRRR wants to turn this from a Gulf Low into a Colorado low. Epic model battle ensuing. 

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z EURO

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

Nice shift south! I knew the 12z suite were outliers.