WeatherWeenie87

2020-2021 winter synopsis 

I'm excited about more opportunities but this quote comes to mind also...

20 hours ago, NEGa said:

 

I do too.  It is also something I have been thinking about (the 10-20 years ago storms). 10 -20 years ago almost all wedges and CADs ended up colder than the models were showing, which is where we all got the "it will trend colder" from.  Sometimes significantly and markedly colder. however, for the last couple of years, we all talk about the trending colder and expect it yet it is just not happening and a lot of us end up at 33 or 34 with rain.  the models still aren't that great, but they do appear to be handling the colder air a bit better.  I cannot really remember a storm in the last couple of years that trended much colder and ended up with a surprise storm or more ice than anticipated.  

while I remain optimistic and hopeful, I am no longer really all that convinced about the "trending colder" for CADs any more.  I take a lot of it with a grain of salt - in the early 2000s it was almost always fun to track CADs and post temps/dewpoints and watch as a lot of the people on the boards as it happened.  It just doesn't seem to do this now and we can never get the trend to shave off the final few degrees we need. 

(this post is referring generally to ne ga and the upstate, not the higher parts of NC)

 

I agree. 2002 was almost two decades ago, modeling and technology is far better than those days. It appears models overdid the Cold Air Advection this time.

Raining in Asheville 

Wetbulbs continuing to warm. Hopefully it keeps the trend up. Don't need power outages during a Pandemic. 

2 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

No way..... CAD is normally  Better than Modeled. I would Think Anyone North of HWY73/152 will be just fine as far as Cold those areas always stay Colder longer. 

11 minutes ago, msuwx said:

The wet bulb map will be pretty useless until we see how much quick cooling we see early this evening before clouds thicken up. 

We will see. I'm sticking with my thoughts. I respect your opinions. 

Feel sorry for the NWS folks. I have a feeling this might be a NC/VA border Ice Storm. HRRR, NAM, and Euro have verified warmer than forecast. If this would have happened 10 to 20 years ago, this would have been almost all snow. This is why analogs are useless now. 

Almost all of NC is above freezing wet bulb temperatures now. 

Wetbulbs are quite balmy

This Morning:

Now:

The dew point decreased in the 12z nam

Current wetbulb temperature

7 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Brad P is actually sounding pretty Concerned..... used to I’d disregard, but he’s become insanely Conservative over last 5yrs or so, so if he’s starting to sound worried I’d start preparing. He said in his latest Video that Its concerning More Cold Air is starting To leak over the mountains than expected tonight 

 

Same, I'm getting a hotel room just in case. 

Horrible news coming from Texas. I have a feeling this is a foreshadowing of what's to come here. 

Hard to imagine Louisiana will have any trees left after this. Two hurricanes and a Major Ice Storm

What a branch snapper! I'm out of puzzles to build  

WPC Freezing rain accum map 

You know your "winter storm" is off to a good start when this is the forecast!

DT's fearless forecast!

Accuweather thoughts:

Can't wait for DT's 5" mega ice storm map! 

6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

RDPS is still a big hit 

Would be bad is this verfies 

36 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

This would be devastating here 

Southeast Ridge says Hi! 

If had a nightmare weather pattern, this would be it. 

Entire state of TX has a WSW

Glad im not going to be a part of this surprise ice storm event. 

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

Ok you are right and I am sorry. I have not been doing well outside of weather with a friend permanently damaged health wise by COVID and he lost his dad to the illness. I suppose I let that carry over to my posts here without thinking it through first. Anyway, I am awaiting the RAH discussion to see their line of thought given the latest runs for next week.

I knew several people who lost loved ones to COVID and had family members in hospital and still ill with it. We are in this together fighting for one another and things will get better. Keeping you in my thoughts and prayers.