SoCoSailer

5 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

I'm not disagreeing with you at all. In fact, if you study the 12Z GFS vs the 18Z NAM at 500, it's pretty close. EDIT: NAM is just held back a little bit. Maybe that's enough? Who knows.

Idk to me that’s a pretty noticeable difference in the orientation of the trough. NAM digs it deeper and sharper, allowing the low to run more NNE than NE

Early on there are changes on the 18z NAM. Energy is diving into Montana vs Idaho on its last few runs

In Oceana for the weekend, I would guess we got 5.5” here, but it’s hard to measure with the drifts

3k NAM is close for DC. Has been trending better the last few runs

Verbatim the 12k NAM is a 36 hour storm for SE Virginia. There’s going to be a narrow stripe for someone to get crushed

Canadian trended better at H5. SS sw further east this run but low still skirts the southern portion of the area

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

18z GFS hammers coastal areas...would be some respectable impacts from that along Delmarva.

Hurricane force gusts in OC

It seems we want the initial wave weaker and further south. Every run that has brought snow to the region has the initial low tracking just north of us vs. almost Buffalo. 18z Nam has that idea and at the end of the run it looks to be setting up for a potential hit. Hopefully this is the start of a trend 

Tried to intercept the storm near Federalsburg earlier. Looks like the tornado must have briefly lifted as it went over me, but I had a great shot of the wall cloud as it went over me

Lat 38.759215, - Long 76.561139

3k Nam a little more aggressive getting precip back into the cities overnight and into the morning 

For those wondering this is what the RPM shows

8 minutes ago, ThePhotoGuy said:

Surprised at the lack of accumulation on the trees so far in Annapolis. Sleety/freeze rain accumulation on cars and wood surfaces but everything else just wet. 

Surprising considering we have accumulation on everything at the far southern end of Anne Arundel. Might just be that we are a little bit colder outside the city, temp has been steady around 29 since 9:00

Getting gusts over 10 now which appears to be helping ice accretion. Sidewalks and driveway now a skating rink

3k Nam ticked a little North with the 2nd wave from 12z. Still hoping for one last surge North to get those of us to the south back in the game

36.5/ 28.3

Everything including the roads coated in ice this morning 

Best rates of the day down here in southern Anne Arundel county. The band coming up from the south means business. Ripping fatties and wind switched to the east with gusts up to 15