Snowmadness

18z RGEM Shows longer duration of ice. Onset is 5am. .75-1

18z Nam has more ice.  Longer duration event 

Damn, If that output verifies on GFS it will be a disaster for RVA.  Never seen ice that thick before.  Hopefully some of it is sleet.  I have 7 big trees in my yard and two of them are in bad shape.  

0z NAM is trending  icer for RVA.  Much different from 18z. Deja Vu

Just now, RVASnowLover said:

The HRRR has this but it doesn't match current radar. Radar precipitation is more than what HRRR is showing

Yep much more 

A little lighter but still some moderate freezing rain to our southwest moving back In 

HRRR looks like 7 more hours of this....ugh.  Trees are already creeking loudly with ice. 

Lights flickering in Henrico 

HRRR is slightly colder by a frame or two on last pass. Still get rain into RVA but about and hour or two later after about 12 hours of ice 

Great analysis!  We also must consider that Wet snow weight is also on the trees which will only make it worse 

ICE STORM WARNING issued for our area.  

Latest HRRR still says 5 more inches on top of what we have.  Might actually hit 7 inches.  

Could have some serious power outages with wet  snow on the trees on top of ice storm this weekend.  

Roads are caving here in Tuckahoe.  About and inch on the ground and HRRR is saying another 4-5

This dry slot approaching sucks.  Could end everything.  I would think the HRRR models could pick up on that unless it’s a radar glitch 

All Snow now 

Hopefully the radar fills in.  According to HRRR light to moderate snow until 5am-6am tomorrow assuming no dryslot.

Sleet and some wet snowflakes near short pump 

Short Range Model Trends are looking better for our area. 

Actually 6 more hours of snow not 4

That total is only through hour 27.  Still 4 more hours of snow after that. I think the models  froze at hour 27 for snow totals.  

1 minute ago, RVASnowLover said:

Looks to me that the heaviest snows runs right through Richmond 

Yeah I may be wrong. My app still hasn’t loaded total accumulations yet.  I was just  referencing earlier in storm when it starts as rain here in 2nd wave.  Hopefully the transition to snow happens faster.  

00z 12k NAM trended slightly colder earlier in storm  if you compare frames on 2nd wave from 18z . You can see the rain snow line drop Will see if that equates to more snow.  Looks like Ashland to Fredericksburg is gonna be the higher totals.  

I only look at short range models at this point.  

Miller B storms are always hard to forecast.  We need a clean Miller A from the south to OBX