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Snowmadness

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    January Mid/Long Range Disco 2

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    Euro and GGEM are keying on a different SW than the "threat" the other day.  I didn't like the angle of the other threat, amplifying too far east, I've seen how that ends multiple times the last few years.  This one has more space to work with and is amplifying far enough west for me to think it has a shot.  In the end temps are more likely to be the problem here not track.

    Hopefully the MJO index will help with cold  if forecast verifies w/ a move into 8/1

    • Like 1

    Remnants of Ian: Threat for us?

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Seems on Satellite passes,  Ian  is heading NE (Not NNE) and Should exit off Florida at a lower latitude then what models are forecasting.  If so, that could have implications in our area possibly taking storm further out in Atlantic before the “left bend” takes place.  

     

    • Like 1
    • Weenie 1

    February Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    52 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

    You are not mistaken.  We also had -NAO for a good part of this past December.  Unfortunately in both cases it was largely rendered moot by Pac Puke.  

    I agree with the PAC puke but we had a marginal negative NAO for maybe 3 decent days this December then for a day or so later in December.  was not prolonged or sustained to help us much. 

     

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    February Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

     

    (Speaking from Richmond) For last two winters,  the NAO has never gone negative for more then a day or two the  entire winter. It is frequently negative rest of the months but  for some reason,  from early December  to Mid March it is always strongly positive for slightly above neutral.  Zero Blocking.  This winter is especially bad.  Guessing La Nina has  a lot to do with it.  I really don’t understand the science behind what drives the patterns other then how the indexes show favorable or unfavorable patterns.  Now,  the only  favorable index this winter, the PNA is forecasted  to go negative and MJO entering warmer phases. Maybe  we may get lucky mid March if pattern can flip back, -NAO blocking and MJO can cycle back around to 8-1.  Until then, it  seems we  need  absolute perfection and timing of cold fronts and  low positions  to give us a good winter storm.   Super low odds with all the vortexes flying around.  I think we have had like 6 inches (RVA)  total between all the storms.  North, South,  East and West of us have a foot plus. Sorry to rant. Just  a frustrating winter for us.  If this happens again next winter, I will seriously storm chase the next big snow even if I have to fly to Maine or Canada….lol …Sorry to rant.  

     
    • Like 2

    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    For last two winters,  the NAO has never gone negative for more then a day or two the  entire winter. It is frequently negative rest of the months but  for some darn reason from early December  to Mid March is always strongly positive for slightly above neutral.  Zero Blocking.  This winter is especially bad.  Guessing La Nina has  a lot to do with it. I really don’t understand the science behind it.  Now,  the only  favorable index this winter, the PNA is forecasted  to go negative and MJO entering warmer phases. Maybe  we may get lucky in mid March if pattern can flip back, -NAO blocking and MJO can cycle back around to 8-1.  Until then, it  will take absolute perfection and timing of cold fronts and coastal low positions   to give us a good snow here in RVA. Super low odds with all the vortexes flying around.  I think we have had like 6 inches total between all the storms.  North, South,  East and West of us have a foot plus. Sorry to rant. Just  a frustrating winter for us.  If this happens next winter, I will storm chase the next big snow even if I have to fly to Maine or Canada….lol 

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