CorePunch

Top shelf late winter day. ☀️ 

LaLa range of the GFS is a ridiculous torch. 

4 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Not much to say really.  It's all Chicago area right now.  We play the waiting game.  To be honest my excitement and expectations are just hoping to somehow get 6" out of this.  Models are so so on that. 

The HRRR keeps Detroit on the edge. 

Looks like some formidable winter tries to settle in a round the lakes. The palm guy isn’t going to be happy. 

Looking solid for Chicago and Detroit. Enjoy fellas. 

DTX giving some insight into the upcoming pattern. Optimistic for winter fans. 
 

A quick perusal of recent GEFS/EPS/CMCE runs suggest this may very
well be the beginning of more notable overall winter season pattern
change after starting off with such a mild December as a much larger
reservoir of polar-arctic air is forecast to become established
from the arctic region on south through much of Canada in the early
to mid January time frame. While details are elusive at this time
frame to say the least, it does seem unlikely that the very mild
December pattern will hold through January.
 

On and off mist in the metro Detroit area. Surprisingly it seemed more like a March day. The gloomy skies, fog and wet roads. Looking forward to a change. 

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The amount of unusually snowy February's we have has been just as impressive as the mundane december's. And sun angle has never been an issue in a wintry pattern.  Unless you're talking about an inch of 40-1 ratio fluff that melts away under the late february sun on a thirty degree day.

 Exactly.  

Just now, hardypalmguy said:

The sun angle rapidly increases in February. That’s science.

Because significant below normal temperatures and copious amounts of snow ‘never’ happen in February…right?…. 
 

that sun angle fellas…. Steals the February winter.  

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

Hey man I appreciate your input but I disagree. January is cooked for the most part. MJO actually looks to move into the warmer phases pretty quickly based on January trends. Also the SSWE will dump the cold other side of the pole.

The other thing is pattern persistence which has been a common thing since the summer. If I was a betting man I would bet on the same generalized thing continuing.

Maybe better luck in February? Who knows though how much can be salvaged as we will have minuscule frost depths and a rapidly rising sun angle.





.

Rapidly increasing sun angle? 
 

You’re not a serious hobbyist or poster. 

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lots of talk about a SSW near Christmas. Will be interesting to see what transpires. 

Non operational runs and a couple operational runs are eluding to a possible pattern change mid month. 

On 11/30/2023 at 9:08 AM, hardypalmguy said:

looks like palm tree weather is coming back.  best climo ever.  zone 7 in 10 years?

Did you enjoy the cool summer? 

These air-masses will deeply moderate as we keep progressing into mid spring. Obviously the sun runs the show. Signs the blocking busts out by D10-12. Wait and see. 

Paying our dues until May. 

26 minutes ago, Chinook said:

The 00z GFS changes the look of the system in the late week. It moves up the low pressure timing at Toledo to Friday, 03z (really, Thursday, 10:00PM). It with a stronger low pressure, at 996mb. It has the rain/snow transition in Michigan/Indiana, with something like 11-14" of snow at Howell, Michigan, depending on 10:1 or Kuchera snow ratios. Kucheras are lower than 10:1. I know, it's at 5 days out or maybe 6 days out, which means that it will trend in some direction. It almost certainly will trend towards less than 11-14" of snow for any area in the Midwest. And the Canadian global model says, "what storm?"

As of right now, some ECMWF and GFS ensemble members have a pretty high QPF for southeast Michigan.

Send it. 

Wow, this month is really disappointing. Hopefully old man winter comes back with some punishment at the end of this month through early March. We can only hope. ❄️ 

2 hours ago, harrisale said:

 

Stoked for the S Ontario crew! Looks like a big one... Always wanted to see a proper blizzard. I'm a bit jealous I'll be honest. I have a buddy who's supposed to drive Guelph to Hanover for the weekend... I'm trying to get him to leave early or I don't know if he'll make it at all!

Looks like near Blizzard Conditions for Detroit and Windsor tomorrow afternoon. DTX had a strongly worded AFD detailing wind gusts in excess of 60mph. Definitely liking the trends for this one. 

18z Euro is a beautiful hit for Detroit and points north. 

I wonder if DTX saw the offices out west jumping the gun and decided to be more disciplined? All speculation at this point. 
 

Anyhow, the trends look great for Lower MI. Should be a solid wind machine and several inches of snow for Detroit up through Flint. 

7 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

I think a lot of frustrations with restrictions are because they are blanketed like this. There’s no “common sense” reason to not allow covid negative people in the stadium with a negative test. Could have made people start doing that a long time ago and still had some events going on.

Whats the end game? Zero Covid cases? You have to assume that things ‘should’ be improved by the start of football. Vaccination rates should be well above 60%. There is an end game, there has to be. What is it? People are at their ends with all of this, especially the vaccinated. That number of people gets even larger every day. I see these restrictions being met with pushback. 

Just now, Powerball said:

If this pause can help him discover ways to decrease risk from (just using random numbers I pulled out of thin air) 2% to 1%, or ensure that risk isn't greater than originally judged, that's a good thing. 

People are dying out there man. Covid is posing a substantially higher risk than (currently) 1 - 1000000 women developing blood clots. Actually, I have to defend Silvers Tweet. He’s right, statistically yanking this vaccine is deadly. 

2 minutes ago, Powerball said:

That's pretty gross hyperbole, and unhelpful IMO.

The CDC and FDA (two government agencies that were created for the sole purpose of helping to ensure the medical products we use are safe) are doing the responsible thing and pausing the vaccinations just to be certain there isn't a deeper issue with the J&J vaccine that would require more research and correction. 

If that delays things for a few more days, then so be it. In the grand scheme of things, given this pandemic has been ongoing for well over a year, that's hardly a long time. 

 

Zero risk is impossible. Right? Im not defending the tweet either. But it seems odd. Honestly 

Please correct me if Im wrong. But doesn’t birth control cause a number of women to develop blood clots. I read that its 1 - 1000 women.... Thats substantially higher than the risk associated with the JJ vax. Wow @ the FDA for yanking this so fast. Im puzzled as to why. 

44 minutes ago, Powerball said:

I live in a highly desirable area (Whole Foods / Trader Joes nearby, tons of corporate offices, tons of festivals, every type of chain, independent & ethnic restaurant you can think of, light rail line set to open in 2023, etc.) and I don't pay anywhere near "a couple grand per month."

No place is perfect. That said, trees here have been near full bloom for the past couple of week, it's been consistently in the 70s & 80s since the event in February, job opportunities are plentiful and I don't have to pay an income tax. The positives definitely seem to outweight the negatives that come with once in a century weather.

ATL is an incredible city. Love the city and that state. You did good on moving there. 
 

Edit: Were you not in GA? Seems you moved again?