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howrdcounty snow

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    Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    FROM LARRY COSGROVE

    This is a formula for entrenched, low-latitude cold and cases of heavy snow and ice. But given that the first piece of energy in the series will be further north, the scenario I have constructed is for a Colorado cyclone to progress eastward into Virginia, then curl up along the coastline of the Mid-Atlantic, New England and Maritime Province. Timing is uncertain, but using the ECMWF ensemble package, between February 25-28 should fit.
     
    I do not think we get out of the rest of calendar winter without yet another major weather event. If the next two in the series, acting with a motherlode in the Great Lakes region like we have currently, an area from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard (probably minus the Deep South, but you never know....) could be hit with major snow and mixed precipitation potential. Given that the 10MB circumpolar vortex is again unified and deepening, I think that we start to see meaningful warm-ups below 40 N Latitude in the last week of March. With thunderstorm threats.

    But it's going to take some time, this time!
     

    Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    FROM LARRY COSGROVE  a long winter still ahead FWIW

     

    Even though there are model forecasts that suggest the stratospheric warming event will collapse in the first week of March, lower layer translation of the 10MB features is usually not seen until perhaps three weeks later. Personally, I believe the analog forecast thats says we will have to wait until the first week of April before our current colder pattern breaks down. The analog system scored very well in December and January, and pointed out the recent tendency for pronounced -NAO ridging and European cold. And also showed the split storm track pattern, though not as strong as what actually transpired through the southern and eastern U.S. last month.

    • Like 1

    January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

    It’s funny. Back on January 24, 2000 we had the surprise snowstorm—- it was supposed to be south—a fish storm. And it wasn’t until after 9:00 pm—-hours before the onslaught that the NWS issued the last minute warnings. This storm has neither the L or the coastal power, however, the waffling that it’s creating is reminiscent of that storm. There just seems to be similar intangibles (VA Beach, suppression, maybe 1-2–probably rain/freezing etc...). Shall be interesting. 

    blizzard of 66 was the very same way

    January Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

    Pretty sure the PAC will make sure we cross that worry off our list.  We’ll be tracking the western trough and SER.  Let’s see what 6z GFS shits out.

    aw I don't consider it a worry, more like a joyous event considering how much snow we have had so far, I don't know what a SER is, there is always something wrong to us getting snow, but WTH

    January Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

    Just waking up here. Are we still on track for epicness beginning the 15th then epicness with epic cold starting the 20th? Trying to plan ahead. Thanks.

    are you talking about epic cold like 77,, or 93 I believe?? the bay froze in 77 and 93 also

    January Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    It was a little odd how it didn’t phase the initial wave and instead had it wash out in favor of the wave behind. But the h5 evolution of that second wave was just classic. It was a nice ending to a very good night. Cheers. 

    what is  the precipice type for the 2nd storm??

    January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    after all the posts of 500 mb driving factors lining up to give us a chance of snow, there is mostly 1 or 2 factors that don't and we end up with little or nothing. That is the story of winter in the MA. And that doesn't count the storms we get that aren't forecast correctly, like the blizzard of 66 the for 5 days, wasn't going to affect us

    January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

    EPS looks fine to me. There could be a relaxation, but pac improves. Rememver our pattern change wasn’t until after this potential event. This would just be icing on the cake. Still forever to go. I’d favor maybe the southeast and mid Atlantic right now. Think euro OP didn’t have a ton of support who knows

    D50C9B73-2011-4420-97FA-90E8C3A3250E.png

    and the rest of the GFS run is rain-an inland runner and a cold front.- and that takes us to the 18th. I'm realistic about our snow chances regardless.

    • Sad 1

    January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    curious

     

    Replying to 
    The SSW is far-reaching and affects every other thing you hear about in medium range forecasting. It's, again, like the ENSO of subseasonal forecasting. It reshapes the playing field in which the synoptic scale features evolve within.
    were all hoping that, as a result of SSW, cold and snow will be the end result of this paradigm going on in our atmosphere, except.....
    dec30 2020
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