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jdpack

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About jdpack

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KEWR
  • Location:
    Orange

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  1. jdpack
    NAM3k does very very well with temp profiles. HRRR sucks at it. When I lived in NC, we got harsh reality lessons in warm noses. With the 6600ft mtns nearby, often we could get RAIN, with surface temps in the low 20s. HRRR always thought it was snowing. NAM sniffed it out and called it.
  2. jdpack
    My prediction yesterday was sleet due to warm air aloft. I didnt see that big of a dry slot coming in. Regardless, the NWS should have been a lot more conservative with the forecast, especially in the afternoon. The warning signs were there well before the 18z NAM3k rolled out. I think it was 2-3 hours after NWS was sticking to 9-14 then below had "uncertainty remains with mixing"... There was no true uncertainty. My cardinal rule of winter storms: If a warm nose is even in the discussion, then you should remove 30-50% of the predicted totals. Even with surface temps in the lower to mid 20s, you go up 1000-2000 feet and it was 35-40f.
  3. jdpack
    Looks like that warm nose affected the totals as was discussed yesterday in the other thread.
  4. jdpack
    Not too far off on these.... JFK- 2-3 LGA- 3-6 Central- 4-7 EWR- 3-6
  5. jdpack
    This is most likely the scenario unfolding unless you head North and/or West of Fair Lawn. If NYC / Newark gets more than 6inches from this storm Ill eat crow.
  6. jdpack
    this includes sleet.
  7. jdpack
    Best shot for NYC is now through 9-10p to accumulate 2-4 inches before sleet and rain mix in.
  8. jdpack
    But that is 06z lol
  9. jdpack
    This aint gonna get it done - Warm nose gonna bust this wide open This aint it
  10. jdpack
    Those models dont take into account sleet mixing in. If (more like, when) the sleet mixes in, that 10:1 ratio goes POOF and the totals go with it.
  11. jdpack
    Warm nose has nothing to do with surface temps.
  12. jdpack
    Im as big of snow weenie as anyone. But this has bust city written all over it. That warm nose will destroy dreams.
  13. jdpack
    My final call: JFK ~1-2 LGA 2-4 Central Park 3-5 EWR 4-6
  14. jdpack
    Surface temps are not going to be the issue. The temps aloft are... and they not working in our favor. The models have shown this, and looking to our south, they are sniffing this thing out. I say, you need to be West of EWR to enjoy all snow here.
  15. jdpack
    In JC here. I am not liking the 850/700 temps. Surface temps are fine, but I think there is a huge bust potential here. My experience from warm noses like this are they usually over perform and tend to creep further North and West than predicted. The 9-13in here is in serious question.
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