Weatherlvr

0.75” today, 40.25”  on 12/17, 1.75” on deck and grass only in Oct.  total 42.75” for season.

Will the current radar and storm intensity where it is currently.  Which model does it line up with?  I can’t really tell if it is digging as deep?  Is this really a now cast instead of model interpretation just curious.

5 hours ago, Fozz said:

Based on that panel, the two warmest places in the lower 48 will be far southern FL and New England.

I hope that is a blip and not things to come.  It is the GFS after all when I start seeing it on other models than I will get concerned. 

2 hours ago, Greg said:

Yes, correct. I wouldn't say huge but relatively significant for those along the southern and northern edges.

I totally agree have no idea why I am under a Winter Storm Warning here at Webster Lake, NH.  We got nothing last WSW and I don’t expect anything but maybe a C -2 inches up here.  Forecast is 6-9 Inches is not going to happen.  Guess it is which model you believe.  I Don’t believe any of the NW models I really don’t see much getting up here except snow dust.  Good luck down south you guys are in the Jackpot!! Your storm you deserve it enjoy!

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

ICON and RGEM look good for S NH...especially ASH eastward. Maybe Dom can melt his way to double digits. Still just Vostok sand up here.

Yep we’re done here at Webster Lake in Franklin, NH.  With the lake being still fluid and not frozen expect the same results as last weekend.  No snow.  Ground still is not frozen here on the SW side of the lake.  Any dust that falls will sublime and we will get nothing.  I don’t expect anything except cirus since that Artic High is stronger than forecasted and just don’t believe that s/w is going to push this far north.  Funny to warm last week to snow and now to cold to snow.  Does it ever snow here and If it does what setup is best to get our big snow.  Haven’t seen anything since I moved here in summer of 2018.  Largest snow fall was 5inches that switched to rain.  Had more when I lived in Amherst, NH.  Good luck to everyone south you deserve it after last years disaster.

Does it make it up into central NH?  Or just to the NH/MA boarder?

Well I am out of it here in Franklin NH just a coating so far this winter.  Nothing Monday and this is going to miss Wed and Thurs.  Good luck to people south of the Pike you deserve it after last years winter.  Hope you get buried!

Well looks like my coating .022” for the year here   at Webster lake will stay intact.  We got no snow from the last major storm and nothing in October and finally a coating from the clipper.  Though with that strong high and dry cold I don’t see that disturbance on Monday or We’d night making it past the SNH boarder.  I might be wrong though I just don’t see how those two lows can make it up.here without being shredded for both storms.  Especially for Wed and Thurs since that high and dry cold air will be very strong.  

7 hours ago, dendrite said:

Hooksett damage

Northfield damage

 

Other than the cable line, nbd here. I saved the bamboo and birches with frequent shaking. The birches will hopefully recover. As for my parents, at least they’ll get more sun. 

We ended up with nothing here across the lake is white recorded a 39.5 mph gust sustained 25.4mph winds at 10pm to 12am last night.  

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Parents just had a large tree come down across their driveway so they’re trapped for awhile.

Hope they are all right.  How much snow do you have?  We have none accumulated though about 0.5 miles south and north of us away from the lake they have about 2.5 inches.  Across the lake they have accumulation. The wind has been rocking the house with a current air temp of 33.2 deg.  We are located on the south west end of Webster Lake, NH.

Just now, dendrite said:

Gotchya. The 46° lake won’t have much influence for you. I’m going to assume you got a lot of snow in Oct 2011. I assume you’re on the north side of the lake so that would be an offshore wind anyway. 30mph winds and heavy rates will just laugh at Webster Lake.

Hopefully it all works out. Again, enjoy the storm. 

Wasn’t here in 2011 was in Amherst.  Yes got snow and lost power not fun.  Moved her in 20I8, and am on the SW side of the lake so no we get on shore winds very nasty.  I will enjoy the storm and let you know what happens.  Thanks for the reply’s.

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m just to your east and it’s 35.7°. 46° would make you the warmest in NH. Even MHT is 43° in the UHI. Salisbury, Webster, and Franklin Falls are all 34/35°. btw Webster Lake is 400’ AMSL. 

No that is my lake temp 46 deg currently it is 34 deg air temp currently.  Though lake temp will have an effect to drop below 32 deg since I live about less than 100ft from it.  Sorry for the confusion

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Enjoy all of the snow neighbor.

Will see I hope this is one of those anomalies will let my son tell me I told you so:).   He will say see dad there is more than just physics, and math. Lol

I believe the EURO is correct for my area here in Franklin, NH at Webster Lake.  I live at 215 FASL right on the lake.  In October we had no more than a coating on my deck.  I am not expecting anything more than an inch or two from this storm. My lake is still fluid and at 46 deg not even close to 39 deg.  This is a giant heat sink that must be overcome to get to freezing for surrounding area.  I really hope the NWS reconsiders their warnings with these latest model runs.  This is causing anxiety during a already dire situation with COVID19.  My son who is studying meteorology and is from Texas has stated this major winter storm is going to happen and worse his professor is backing this based on certain models!    We need to look at all models and not cherry pic the ones that look good.  If you look at this from a numerical and astro physics along with statistical and probability point of view it just doesn’t add up.  There just isn’t enough cold air and dynamics to support this large volume of frozen precipitation forecasted, unless this converges perfectly which at this time is a very low probability.    A Model is a probability as well as a forecast at that given point in time not 24 hours later.  I understand we had a AN November but to hype our first marginal cold disturbance is wrong.  It gives future Mets the wrong perspective and teaches them to rely to much on models and not to look at the data and say does this make sense?  Math, physics statistics and probability theory must also be used and understood.  Does this probability event shown by a model make sense.  Forecasting by wish casting or model emotion does no good too the meteorology profession. I am sorry if I upset anyone.