Eric11

15 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The Jamstec tries to develop a weak El Nino from the east in Spring on the new update. But it then collapses in Fall. Very similar to 2012.

Though it's too early for us to head into the Spring Barrier time, looks like there's a major difference between NMME and Jamstec

According to Jae-Heung Park's paper "Mid-latitude leading double-dip La Nina" published last year, it is very likely to get a double peak event considering the very cold Nino 4 region and a meridionally expanded easterly wind anomalies.

15 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Jamstec has an El Nino trying to develop in Nino 1.2 in Summer. Sort of like the 1996-97 to 1997-98 transition but weaker/slower.

Canonical/East-based Nino hasn't yet been observed since 1997-98.Considering the atomsphere state and decadal warming rate of the Central Pacific(Nino 4 region).I really doubt that the jamstec forecast will actually  realize.I agree on the opinions of a rapid decaying stage of La Nina in boreal spring(looks like PMM+ helps a lot) but I do wonder whether it will develop into a Nino event (still PDO- and cold Nino 4) even a borderline event.

Jamstec has released its Nov forecast, another Nino in boreal summer?

Wanna correct a mistake, I said the La Nina event this winter should look like a weaker, shorter event in my last post. I later found out that both the ONI and MEI of 1954 have been already the exact same as 2020 so far.1954 reached the first peak as early as ASO with an ONI around -0.9 and a MEI of -1.045 in ND.

This year we’ve already had a rough -1 MEI for JA, and a ONI of -0.6 in JAS. With the upcoming multiple rounds of easterlies burst, I’d like to go with a ONI in the range of -1.0 to -1.4 for NDJ or DJF, so it maybe far more stronger than the first peak of 1954 La Nina event and looks very close to the strength of 2007 or 1995.But here’s some other things looks interesting to me, almost every climate models continuously predicting a sharp rising of Nino3.4 values in late winter and spring in 2021, this doesn’t often happen when a mature, modoki-like, moderate or strong La Nina in its decaying stage. Usually a Nina which goes into the moderate or strong range often has a double peak, even multiple peak in next year. Just like how 1954,1955; 1995,1996;2007,2008 evolve. The situation may shift away from 1955,1996,2008, these cold-neutral of double peak event. So It’s pretty wise for raindancewx to put 1964 as an analog cuz 1964 Nina decaying quickly and transitioning into a Nino in early 1965 just like the what climate models are predicting for next year.I’m not saying 2021 would be another Nino, but if the rapid warming in Nino 3.4 verifies, 1964-1965 could be the only best analog in nearly 70 years.

16 hours ago, raindancewx said:

This is the Euro plume from October 1 for the La Nina. I've drawn in my expectations - I think this event could peak pretty strong. But I also think the Euro is right about a pretty quick turnaround/warm up after January.

Hey raindancewx,I'm a newbie interested in atomspheric science and have been tracking your post since last summer.I lived in China so I'm more familiar with the climate in East Asia than America.One thing I'd like to share is that I found 2020 really behaves like 1954,at least in East Asia part.Both have rather weak monsoon,record-breaking,prolonged flood, and definitely late starting of typhoon season.Outside Asia,some other similarities can be found in America like the western drought/big ridge in summertime(I'm not quite clear what's 1954 autumn looks like),a active hurricane season but with moderate ACE(1954 had 16 storms with 110 ACE,2020 has 24 storms with around 111 ACE so far).1954 and 2020 are both low solar years, fast-transition Nina after prolonged,weak Nino events.So why not consider 1954 as a good analog?I know the subsurface temperature differs too much but I rather prefer a weaker,shorter 1954-like event for this year.Btw,2007 really works out as a good analog in East Asia,appreciate for your precise prediction!