floridapirate

Ive seen one flash freeze in my life despite the many calls for one.  Im banking on the latter.

23 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Wind gusted to 100mph. atop Artemis.
I'm getting frequent gusts in the 60 range. Oh, that sound a ferocity greater than Ian. Power going out all over the place. 

I read Artemis was rated to 80mph, interesting to see what next steps are after the storm moves out

29 minutes ago, jllevin79 said:

Flying from NYC to Tampa Thursday evening. Should I expect that this flight will be canceled?

It will probably, but then again it might not.  With the storm track today there is a 50-50 chance of cancellation.  

Time to start reading the annual predictions of a historically cold and snowy winter.  

This is another model posted 26 Sep on the Ian thread by a professional met (Board Member).  Monday afternoon prior to the storm starting in 48 hours and Ft Myers/Naples is relatively safe.  If you were a resident and asked to evacuate, you probably would look at this and decide to stay.  In addition, look at the actual result of onshore at Ft Myers, off shore at Cape Canaveral and consider how far off the models were.

1 hour ago, NYC10023 said:

Sorry but where is that map from?

each NHC arum varied a bit, but swfl was never out of the cone. 
In all the years I lived in Florida, especially knowing how hurricanes can change path at the last minute, I would NEVER have thought of going south on the same coast it was forecast to hit

I grabbed this from the Ian discussion page.  Point is, Ft Myers and Naples was "safe", not center of the storm

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I'm flabbergasted that people would evacuate down the coast for a hurricane.  I've heard a lot of stories like that.  Whatever happened to going farther inland?

It's one thing if you're evacuating to Mobile, AL for this, but the Fort Myers/Naples area were in the zone where there was a reasonable chance of very bad conditions from days out.

This map was posted on 25 Sep, 48 hours before the storm (pulled from the Ian thread).  South and east was the way to evacuate, Tampa is on the southern edge of the cone.  Ft Myers/Naples isnt even the cone at this point.  Forecasting was poor on this one.

The discussion needs to focus on the forecast, which was marginal at best.  Only 24 hours before was the storm 1) forecasted to come ashore south of Tampa and 2) 1 forecast model called for the storm to track basically along I-4.  And that model was an inhouse model from the Orlando NBC affiliate.  My son in Tampa was planned to evacuate to a friend's house near Naples and decided to ride it out and glad he did. Had he evacuated on Monday to Naples, he would have put himself in the bullseye. Blaming politicians of any party for not evacuating Ft Myers earlier is absurd when Monday & Tuesday's forecast had Tampa in the bullseye

55 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think it's a stretch to suggest there are no tropical characteristics remaining whatsoever.  If that were the case, I don't think it would weaken over land as quickly as what's being progged.

Does it matter if it has tropical characteristics?  If it has hurricane winds, its a hurricane

7 minutes ago, ag3 said:

 

I was just in SW Florida. Last month. From Clearwater Beach to Captiva. Visited all of it and made stops at several of the pristine beaches. The entire time I was thinking, I cant believe what they have built on these barrier islands. It was a disaster waiting to happen. They got complacent and built homes, condos and beachfront buildings where they should not have been.

I'm curious to see if they rebuild to the same extent. If I'm an insurance company, I would never again cover any structure on those barrier Islands and if I did, the premium would be tens of thousands a year.

This isnt unique to Florida, every barrier island on any body of water is experiencing the same thing.

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t. 
 

i just gave him 3 quick examples that were every bit as bad that ranged from 50-to almost a 100 yrs ago. Those storms were juiced too.  
 

And let’s go back to the 1950’s and early 1960’s….hurricanes everywhere..and all over New England at that.  

I think the point is that its lazy to characterize every strong storm, every heatwave, every strong winter storm as climate change related.  And that is a fair point.

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That would cause way too many false alarms and then social science comes in. "They said we would get a hurricane before and we never did so I am staying." 

Well, that still will happen.  Do you think residents of Tampa and north will be evacuating the next time around when they got minimal effects?  Highly doubt it.

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Wow - Daytona Beach is getting slammed. Sustained 53, gusting to 72. I doubt that area was prepped for this.

 

National Weather Service : Observed Weather for past 3 Days : Daytona Beach International Airport

I can vouch for that.  We moved inland near Deland, sustained strong winds, 12"+ inches of rain and still pouring.

1 minute ago, biodhokie said:

One: Ratings and Two: People don't react to colors on a screen, they react to actual conditions. James Spann is of this train of thought, people don't react to radar.

I agree with #1.  As for #2, by the time people react to pictures on a TV, its far too late.

1 minute ago, Powerball said:

A reporter with another media outlet blew right into Jim Cantore while he was giving a live update on TWC. 

I dont know why reporters think we need to see them standing in 100 MPH winds.  Its just plain stupid.

1 minute ago, wendy said:

Mike Siedel on TWC in Fort Myers just said this may be the worst hurricane he's ever been in.

It looks really bad, but I take what Siedel says with a grain of salt after watching him "struggle" in wind while people walked behind him.  He may be telling the truth, hard to tell.

6 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Pretty substantial amount of lightning continues within the core of the storm. 

 

Does that signify something?

44 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The closest analogue we have is estimated to cause 75 billion in damage (based on a study in 2018) and last time this occured, the entire island of fort Myers beach was under 3-6 ft of water:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1944_Cuba–Florida_hurricane

New to Florida, but people keep telling me this is similar to Charley...

3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I'm not surprised JB is talking ECUSA and mentioning Carol.  I think all pro-mets became pro-mets because of weenie tendencies, but most pro-mets (there is someone on this board from Florida who is JB-ish) seem to feel a professional responsibility not to weenie.  He may not be wrong, but he can't help an East Coast bias.

Sure, if it hits, he can take credit and if it doesnt good for everyone, something changed.  Its a win-win

5 hours ago, cptcatz said:

I'm a homeowner in Palm Beach County, Florida and I am rooting for a solid cat 1 strike in my area.  I'd take anything that doesn't cause financial damage to my house (or my collection of fruit trees in my backyard).  But a good 70-80 mph storm causing some power outages I'd take (my in-laws live down the street with a whole-house generator so not worried about power outages).  Of course if a Dorian-style major hurricane does strike my area and kill my fruit trees and cause damage to my house, I would be pissed but I wouldn't regret my wishcasting for a storm since that wishcasting had zero impact on the MH strike.  So yeah, I'll be the first to say I hope for some good landfalling hurricanes.

That's strange.  Its one thing to like the chase, its another to want landfall and damage for the area

9 hours ago, cptcatz said:

The 0z EPS is pretty bullish with three waves in the next 10 days: it starts to develop the current 20% lemon just north of the Caribbean and ends the run with it on a crash course into Florida.  The next wave seems a bit messy in the central Atlantic but the third wave looks to be a vigorous one.  Looks like the main story of the models is they have no idea how to handle this monsoon trough.

Ok, what is a "lemon"?

12 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

JB has sadly let social media rot his brain inside out. It sucks because I followed him to Weatherbell and loved his stuff and even paid for it. It's just sad seeing the changes to him over the years :/

Its all about clicks generating dollars.  Let me guess, his winter forecast is calling for unusual cold and heavy snows, perhaps of biblical proportions?  He knows what sells and does just enough right to justify the subscription.

3 hours ago, Modfan2 said:

This; in my past 10 years in S FL I cannot remember a summer being this dry on the East Coast and water temps from the boat are running 82-84 and 86 in the Gulf Stream which is a little cool for this time of year.
 

Obviously things can and will change but Fl East coast cities are running 5-8” rain deficits in the middle of rainy season. 

I live near New Smyrna Beach and we have had less than 4" of rain in the last 6 weeks.  This is supposed to be the rainy season

There have been waves of dust coming off the African coast.  I'm new to this and to FL...Is this normal activity for this time of the year?  I'm told it can dampen tropical activity, is this true?

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Because the models suck

They shouldnt go out past 84 hours

its easy not to look at past 84 hours...