eureka22

39 minutes ago, Snownado said:

I think normal people get their weather from an app on their phone.

I think that's partly right, the other part is from the social media apps on their phone.  Someone sees a 216 hour euro map on Facebook and then sends it to their friends and it keeps getting shared and then everyone bombards the local TV mets pages with, "OMG we're gonna get buried why aren't you warning us about this?"  I've noticed for both GHD3 and this upcoming system they're trying to temper the panic.  They acknowledge that there may be a storm next week and here's what they know and what they don't know.  Keep up with future forecasts but don't set your hair on fire just yet. TWC doesn't help when they show the GFS or Euro snowfall map five days out.  There are no numbers but we know the what the color table is, you aren't helping.

ILX is total weenie for my area.  I'm sure it was an error but it did wake me up when I saw it.

ILZ031-112200-  
WOODFORD-  
INCLUDING THE CITY OF EUREKA  
436 AM CST FRI FEB 11 2022  
   
....

THURSDAY  
BLUSTERY, COLDER. RAIN LIKELY, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH  
SNOW. SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS AROUND 40. TEMPERATURE FALLING  
INTO THE 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION  
60 PERCENT.   

From the 13Z Day 1.

...Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley/Mid-South...
A mid-level dry slot on the southern fringe of the Cristobal should
continue to develop east-northeastward over southeast Missouri and
western portions of Kentucky/Tennessee toward Illinois/Indiana
through the afternoon. With a very moist air mass (low 70s F surface
dewpoints) also developing northward, dry slot-related cloud breaks
and diurnal heating will contribute to weakening inhibition and
moderate buoyancy by afternoon, particularly across Illinois into
western/central Indiana. The north/northeastward-expanding core of
strongest low/mid-level winds will also reside within this same
corridor, including an increasing mid-level westerly component this
afternoon, which could boost the potential for somewhat longer
duration/semi-discrete updraft rotation. A few tornadoes may occur
across the region, along with isolated thunderstorm-related wind
damage. Portions of Illinois (roughly the eastern half) into Indiana
will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a possible
tornado-related risk upgrade (10% Enhanced). 

ILX and DVN are doing special soundings now so SPC is likely waiting to see what they reveal before issuing a MCD.

ILX and DVN doing midday soundings per SPC request.

WWUS40 KWNS 201834

WWP9 

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0199

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0132 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

WT 0199 PDS

PROBABILITY TABLE:

PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES                        : >95%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /EF2-EF5/ TORNADOES       : >95%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS              : >95%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          : >95%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS              : >95%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES          : >95%

PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&

ATTRIBUTE TABLE:

MAX HAIL /INCHES/                            : 4.0

MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/               : 70

MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/                        : 600

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 23035

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION             : YES

&&

FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND

WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU9.

$$

WWUS40 KWNS 201734

WWP7 

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0197

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1232 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

WT 0197 PDS

PROBABILITY TABLE:

PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES                        : >95%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /EF2-EF5/ TORNADOES       :  90%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS              :  80%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          :  20%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS              : >95%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES          : >95%

PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&

ATTRIBUTE TABLE:

MAX HAIL /INCHES/                            : 4.0

MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/               : 60

MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/                        : 600

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24035

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION             : YES

&&

FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND

WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU7.

$$

57 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Yea but areas south really aren't going to see a different timing then us. Esp by I72. Hence my confusion 

I see your point.  I might guess that for coordination purposes to mesh with other offices they went with warnings.

WSW criteria are 6 inches in 12 hours OR 8 inches in 24 hours.  My point and click shows the main activity (6.2") over an 18 hour period with the highest 12 hour total 3.8".  It doesn't meet either requirement.  A random click in Peoria shows a similar result.