joshwx2003

One could dream but GFS likes to play with our emotions doesn’t it.

Tornadoes and Damaging Winds are the primary risks with this Severe Wx Event.

Apparently the tornado that hit Bassfield might break a record that has stood since 2013.Damage swath is 4 miles wide on I-59 at Heidelberg, Miss. MM 115-119. Tornadic wind damage is extensive but there are numerous extreme damage paths about 100-200 yards wide that criss cross each other.  Mature pine forests chewed to the ground. 

22 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Upson County (not sure which state)

Holy shit!

This is the most active it’s been by far!

Based on recent radar and environmental data, a violent
   tornado with potential peak winds of 170 to 205 mph (EF4-EF5) is
   likely ongoing. THIS IS AN EXCEPTIONALLY RARE EVENT.

I’m getting concerned with the lack of convection that the models showed developing across Southern Texas

9 minutes ago, Solak said:

New day 3

 

This will be interesting for me to experience as I live in SE NC

Anyone else anxiously awaiting the 1730z outlook?

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

They are definitely setting the stage to go to high risk tomorrow or on Sunday. Either way if this doesn't bust, this could be a memorable event.

Try Historical.I have a feeling that this will be the worst tornado outbreak in history for the US.The models show no convection in the morning and just insane parameters which will setup a worst case scenario.

20 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

The globals (GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF) have the high risk style look to them. And there's already a 60 contour showing up on the SREF tornado ingredients product. That's pretty high for the FH81 frame. There's not a whole of lot data to constrain this event at this point in time. 

I'm usually pretty conservative when guessing at the risk outlooks...sometimes too much so...but yeah, if tonight's global runs are not materially different than today then I too would not be surprised by a D3 moderate from the SPC tomorrow.

It might sound like a dumb question but why can’t they issue a Day 3 High Risk

This is what we've been waiting for! The GFS has FINALLY almost mirrored the ECMWF's trend regarding a possible severe thunderstorm outbreak this coming Sunday across the Gulf Coast states. Both models show incredible dynamics & sufficient CAPE. This is it!

1 hour ago, jojo762 said:

12Z Euro continues to depict potential for a high-end severe weather event on Sunday April 12 across mostly Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee.

100-110kt 500mb jet streak atop a 60-70kt LLJ, juxtaposed to 67-71 degree dewpoints and steep lapse rates leading to CAPE values on the order of 2000-4000 j/kg. Insane.

12Z GFS is about 9 to 12 hours faster than the ECMWF, leading to a significantly lessened severe threat.

If the last few runs of the Euro were to verify, we would be dealing with a historic tornado outbreak, if the GFS verifies we will probably be dealing with a lower-end severe threat. 

Which model do you think is more accurate?

Latest Euro model run shows the set up to be almost exactly like April 27th 2011. The deep low (992mb) is forecast to move just south of St Louis, along with a neutral/negative tilted trough. 

PDS soundings are now screaming all over the south for Sunday.

1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

Looks like the SPC is banking on a derecho tomorrow.  I could see the storms kicking up off the mountains tomorrow bringing some basic severe weather with that vort hanging around, and then a derecho sweeping through tomorrow night in the Virginias

Let’s hope not...

4 minutes ago, mob1 said:

This storm in western GA isn't messing around 

 

Edit;  it's actually in eastern AL

Debris Signature now...

26 minutes ago, Calderon said:

Radar confirmed tornado near the MS Gulf Coast in George County near Lucedale. This storm will move into Mobile in about a half hour.

958am - CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE reports in George County, MS. This is a CONFIRMED TORNADO moving into the Wilmer, AL area in western Mobile County.  
Not Good...

From @NWSMobile

2 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Why have the cells looked so poor in IL and IA? Nothing has the robustness of what we have seen in the MS Valley today

If I recall correctly the storm Prediction Center originally had the MS valley as the area of highest potential today before a model shift northward 

11 minutes ago, StormySquares said:

What should be expected in terms of structure tomorrow? Like would it be easy to see tornadoes from a distance?

From Vortex Crew https://www.facebook.com/688039631377431/posts/1504752026372850/?d=n

Holy cow STP values are maxed out with the 12z HRRR 33 hours out