mcblimp95

11 minutes ago, Snow haven said:

Just rain here in rockingham but some sleet mixed in  

The rain/snow line is quickly moving in with sleet mixing in more just south of Rockingham.

Snow beginning to mix in in Uptown Charlotte

Just now, CaryWx said:

How believable is the HRRR?  Seems to be trending better for central-eastern NC

It has really been all over the place. It still fails to get surface temps each run. 

10 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Can someone post the 17z HRRR map

Still with three hours left on it to run, but very similar to the past 4-5 runs.

Rain/Snow line has begun to push south again west of Charlotte. Really made some movement near Greenville recently. Moving super slow around Charlotte, but I'm sure its close to making a run.

Temps beginnning to drop in Charlotte. 41/31, Wet Bulb of 34.7

The 850 line has now crept south of the North Carolina/South Carolina border along the 74 corridor, and sits just south of Rockingham, NC. Pushing south once again. 

Our 850 line has stalled from moving south at least in the Charlotte area, but still seams to be moving steadily to the south across Georgia, and just west of Greenville, SC. 925 temps however have crashed across the board. 

Charlotte is sitting at 45/29, Wet bulb of 37

Just now, kvegas-wx said:

Sleeting hard in uptown CLT per my daughter.

Can confirm. I work in Uptown and it is sleeting very nicely now.

5 minutes ago, Grayman said:

@GunBlade where can you see current 850 line ? 42/36 here in Rockingham NC 

Based on CC it appears to be running right through Gaffney, and over Uptown Charlotte moving to the south at a good clip.

The HRRR is taking the supposed rain/snow line and plopping it further and further south every run this morning. The 06Z run at the same time frame had it North of Rockingham, and the 13Z had it south of the county into South Carolina. Current observations looking at CC would suggest this is very likely the case. 

9 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

The NAM initialized dewpoints too warm in the Triangle.

It did a pretty bad job with the position of the 850 line as well. Especially along highway 74 and east.

Dew Points still crashing across the state. Sleet starting to mix in in Uptown Charlotte.

The drizzle/rain has already dropped temps in Rockingham from 44 to 41 in less than an hour. Wet bulb also dropped from 37 to 35. Good signs.

Interesting to note the HRRR initialized its 11Z run with the 850 line running through Cornelius, yet the SPC observed 850 line is almost all the way to Monroe. The short range stuff is not going so hot. This is why model watching at this point is a no go.

There seems to be much more precipitation moving into South Carolina, and the southern portions of North Carolina than expected. 

A gentle drizzle just began.

43/30 in Rockingham. Dew points and RH have really started to take a nose dive again in the past hour or two.

Wet Bulb sitting just south of 37 degrees.

Rockingham, NC

45/33

Dewpoints are running almost 10 degrees cooler than modeled by the NAM. Using KHFF data. Pretty amazing.