stormdragonwx

Looking like a snoozefest for the next 7-10 days or so as most of the winter activity gets confined north of I70. Though the CFS has a dream scenario painted out for White Christmas lovers with a storm moving through the area on Christmas Eve/Day with a deeper dip in the NW flow pattern. Will have to watch to see if that trends as it gets closer.

Finally got some flakes flying at 4am here in Fayetteville.

Still waiting to see if anything happens here in Fayetteville. Looks like the snow band is evaporating down here. lol

Some high-res models showing potential for some snow flurries for Thanksgiving over parts of NW AR and SW MO. We shall see what happens. Classic winter NW flow pattern.

Indeed NWS TSA is jumping on board.

Euro is coming on board with the GFS with some interesting weather looking possible around the Nov 28th-29th and Dec 4th-5th timeframe.

And now we got potential record highs coming this weekend! lol

First widespread hard killing freeze looks to be hitting the area this weekend. Some could even see their first teens for lows come Monday morning.

Since we are almost into November, I figured I would go ahead and start this new thread for the 2025-2026 winter season. Current ENSO indicates a weak La Nina to Neutral type winter. Snow and cold forecasts could go either way. Feel free to share your thoughts and forecasts for this upcoming winter.

Only picked up 6-7 inches here in Fayetteville. Was hard to measure accurately due to the blowing snow. So the crazy forecast trend did bust as I suspected. Dry air intrusion along with warmer midlevels turning the precip into a snow/sleet mix at times cut down on totals quite a bit.

I'm here in Springdale and I think we got warm air aloft messing with our snowfall. Its changed to a snow/sleet mixture. That's gonna kill totals.

Snowing pretty good here at work in Springdale, AR with the ground already getting covered including streets and parking lots. Started as snow and started sticking almost immediately to all surfaces. Currently down to 26F so I expect the snow ratios to start increasing here.

At this point the only real fail scenarios will be seen thru nowcasting. #1. A stronger warm nose shows up cutting down on the snow turning it into one big sleet storm for a good portion of the event. #2. A stronger than anticipated dry slot cutting off moisture altogether. There's still a chance these totals get halved by morning but its looking less likely overall.

Man, all the major short range convective models are murdering much of NE OK, SW MO, and NW AR. So crazy to see this the night before the event. (do note the two 00z WRF runs weren't even finished running thru at the time of posting)

Its been a long time since I have seen the DSP map maxed out like that with the snow totals.