SnowGiant611

Maybe about 4” in KCON? A ways to go to get to the projected range of 8-12”. Do we feel this backfills to the NW once the coastal takes over?


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Anyway...I'm happy for everyone getting a lot of snow. It's been a frustrating year for some so just venting a bit. Carry on with your SNE snowstorm.

This has been a very strange winter for the NH Capital region. We’ve either been too far north, or too far south for nearly every storm for decent snows. I could use a nice Norlun trough dropping 30” over a 48 hour period please!


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This storm is making me extremely nervous. The signals for ice accumulations seem very strong here in KCON. I’m hoping the precip is heavy enough such that most of it rolls off instead of taking root. An inch of ice accumulation would be absolutely CATASTROPHIC!


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Haven’t officially measured, but if we got 4” I’d be surprised. I’ll measure in the AM.


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Leave it to Tom Brady to upstage likely one of the largest snowstorms in New England history, lol.


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I wonder when Gray revises the forecast for this area? Can’t see any paths to a 6-14” total storm accumulation here?


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The subsidence from the draining cold air absolutely killed the DGZ here.


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Epic bust here in KCON. Called for 6-14”, we’ll likely be lucky to get 2”. Incredible how the GFS locked in to the actual final scenario. Looking forward to the postmortem here.


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Feels like the sun wants to come out here in KCON and the temp hitting 50! Almost 40 here now.

Probably got about 5”, before it started to compact. It’s incredibly slippery with the water on top of the compacted snow on untreated spots.


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20 degrees here in KCON. -4 degree DP. Airmass is extremely dry.


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16/-6 at DAW
 
NWS with 23 for a high there. Ain’t happenin’. 

50% odds DAW doesn’t see 20F.

You won’t see the days max until later this evening when the mid levels start to warm.


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NWS Gray has us under a WSW, calling for 6-12”. Surprising for others here? They state periods of 1-3” snowfall rates (thundersnow, anyone) will drive total accumulations. All this storm would need to do is drift 50 or more so miles from its forecasted position and Mark and I could be in the Jack zone.


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It's either going to snow, or it won't.

What makes this all the more exciting is the potential for drastic model shifts inside 48hrs, which are not all that common.  Keeps us all riveted right up until go time, but in that case we need to rely on factors such as climatology, field dynamics and experience in order to project what actually may occur.

Good stuff!

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have no idea why you break his balls over falling six wins shy of a WS title when they weren't even supposed to contend...you act as if they underachieved.

 It makes no sense.

Completely OT regarding weather, but I complete agree.  After a disastrous 2020 season did ANY of us actually expect the Red Sox to contend and be in the ALCS especially considering what each of us projected to be a "meh" FA signing group?  

The Sox are onto something good, starting with the farm system.  Hopefully Bloom can balance his cost-managing ways that made the Rays a perennial contender and augment them with the ability to spend, when necessary.  This off-season is a great example of that.  Correa?  Story? Suzuki?  What high-class talent will Bloom sign to complement the core already here?

This pattern has certainly been junk, but the snow removal personnel are loving it, especially those that charge by the "storm".  Even 1" of snow needs to be cleared from driveways and walkways else it will simply turn to ice.  We do seem to potentially get a bit of melting today, but I was expecting much more sun (which hasn't yet materialized).  

The teleconnections and jet stream alignment just don't seem to be there this year.  It's curious because our best "Nor'Easter" actually happened back in November, but we obviously didn't have the airmass to support it, but we were all hopeful that it would have translated into winter.  

Something just feels off about this winter....and the large swings in temp gradients are typically fertile breeding grounds for storms or to "refresh/reload" the atmosphere, but we really haven't even seen that as we seem to be hovering in a daily max range of 3-7 degrees.  That won't get the job done.  A few "torch" events will likely generate some instability and pattern uncertainty that I think is a bit necessary now?

34.2 degrees here at 10 feet.  I expect still a bit colder at the actual surface.  Precip has ended here.  Waiting on skies to clear and temps could shoot up a bit.  

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM is decent for 12/24...looks like a nice stripe of 1-2" with maybe 3" lollis. Then it mostly squashes 12/25-12/26...but tries to get 12/27 into parts of the region with a bit of snow. Then it tries to get another system in here 12/28 with ZR/IP.

This train of shortwaves starting Xmas is a total mess on guidance. Chevy Chase advent calendar.

Tough situations for any guidance.  How is it reasonable to expect the models to be able to process the remaining airmass dynamics from the preceding wave until it actually leaves the area?  

Can we also see a "robber" wave here that outperforms potentially and this causes supplemental waves to be dramatically impacted?

My unofficial/non-scientific observations for today.

What a totally crappy day, lol.

5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Thanks for that Chris.  I figured it was likely to develop further but the radar does look shitty 

I appreciate the insight, as well.  We wait for the omega to tell the tale! 

Is the H5 low tracking a bit north of modeled?  Seems the column just never super cooled here?  We just didn’t get heavy enough precipitation. 

Well, I think I called this one.  I just wasn’t excited about this in the Capital region of NH.  Really felt the models were under doing the warmth over the past 48hrs here.  I called for a bust potential with most accumulations on grassy surfaces and that seems like exactly what we got?  The radar to the west of us looks horrific and I can’t see any way right now we get 6-10”?

This is why I had said slight, lol.

This looks like slight bust potential in the Capital region of NH.  Consider:

 

1. Air/ground temps:  These have been higher than expected this week, including > 50 degrees today.  Low temps are only forecast to drop to 32 or so tonight, so this is a factor.

2. Dry air at storm onset : because the temps have been so high this week, we'd need a really good front-end thump to cool the lower levels and promote rapid sticking/accumulations on non-grassy surfaces.  I see a good virga event for the first few hours due to the column needing to saturate based on the cold air draining from Canada.  

3. Climo - need a stronger low in order pull more cold air down from Canada in a more aggressive fashion.

This looks like 3-5", but not as much accumulation on non-grassy surfaces.

About 27.5" here in Gilmanton, NH.  Looks like dendy overperformed me a bit. I'm trying to find the vehicles that are somewhere on my lot, at present.

Just now, weathafella said:

OT but maybe a little fun Monday night or Tuesday next week?

Let's refresh the snowpack and do Christmas right.  Let's just pray there are no cutters in our future as that would be disastrous with this snow...especially on roofs in the area.