bishbish777

Mostly snow now in Natick, probably 75/25..keeps changing back and forth.

Wife has to commute from Boston to Framingham at 8:00 a.m. and back at 5:00 p.m. for work... How bad do you guys think it's going to be..She ain't a good driver haha

Crazy out there right now! Still, feel like it might be hard to get 24-30" even in eastern areas. Hell, some areas are almost completely bare due to the wind..

So...is the 18Z Euro the outlier here? Cuz that run was beautiful 

Edit: Latest HRRR (02Z) has completely gotten rid of the double-barrel low too. 

Just now, JC-CT said:

One model stands above the rest as steady freddie, and within the spread of solutions.

The ICON has really been doing great, I agree.

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Kuro 

its runs literally at 5am

I wish I could say I understand..

I'm relatively new to the NE area. Which model traditionally handles these coastals the best? It's really strange for me to see the big differences in the models two days out.

Models seem to be making a big shift west at 00Z so far. 

Really amazing to see the major differences between the Euro and the other major models at such a short lead time. Truthfully, the differences are probably not so big, but small shifts are leading to huge differences in outcome at this juncture. Should be really exciting next few days..

GFS, CMC, and UK all east..

The CMC is pretty far east, but still hits EMA ~1.0" QPF. Not bad..lots of room for improvement too.

On the bright side the 18Z ICON was looking pretty nice compared to its 12Z run...and has been much less volatile than the other guidance...

Euro def looked way too amped compared to other guidance at this point. Almost certainly will trend quite a bit weaker with the low at 00Z tonight.

Lookin' like a whole lot of rain for E MA..

Huh...the last minute trend east on the mesos is quite sad. It's just about go time so we'll see soon enough. 18Z GFS was still cracked, very curious if 00Z will be similar.

Looks like it may just end up being the stronger eastern low. Not as prominent double-barrel look on latest runs. 

So..is the FV3 any good? Because the 00Z run is pretty nice..

00Z RAP much better than previous run too

Well we wanted the two lows to "squeeze" together...the 00Z HRRR has pretty much done that...western low is pretty much gone.

Latest RAP down to 3-5", even over most of EMA. 

How much of this postulating that the convection offshore is "weaker" than modeled is reality vs wishcasting at this point? Seems several hours too early to really be able to tell that. Also, you would think that a weaker offshore component would be reflected in the hourly HRRR runs, which is definitely is not at this moment.

18Z GFS 

UKMET, CMC, RGEM, ICON all worse at 00Z than previous runs. I wouldn't say the NW shift is a foregone conclusion yet. 

00Z RGEM looks like it ticked cooler and wetter..

Also, seems to me that the mesoscale models (NAM 3KM, HRRR, NSSL) are a touch colder than the other models.