banshee8

2 hours ago, bdgwx said:

Broadly speaking the first "ice-free" year has been getting pushed up. You'll find select studies here and there that have really aggressive predictions, but those are either few in number or not well received enough to influence the consensus much. 

In the 1990's the prevailing prediction was around 2100 or thereafter. And in the IPCC's AR3 report from 2001 it was stated (via a chart) that the first annual mean extent of 10.5e6 km^2 would not occur until about 2040. In reality it actually occurred in 2007. Even today many sea-ice models continue to struggle with the rapid pace of sea ice declines in both the NH and SH.

Today it seems as though the consensus lands somewhere in the 2040-2060 range. So we still have a good wait ahead of us before we see < 1e6 km^2 of extent at the minimum. It's certainly possible that it could occur prior to 2040. Some on this forum and the ASIF believe we'll be lucky to make it to 2040. I'm in the more conservative camp and believe it will be after 2040. I'm prepared to be proven wrong though.

I mean, the NSIDC is a pretty mainstream source. 

I think some predictions got a lot more aggressive after 2007, but most toned it down after about 2013.

On 11/15/2019 at 6:09 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

https://phys.org/news/2019-11-arctic-ocean-ice-free-year.html

Keeps getting pushed back...

https://nsidc.org/news/inthenews/arctic-could-be-ice-free-2020-scientists-say

https://nsidc.org/news/inthenews/arctic-could-be-free-summer-sea-ice-2030

On 11/13/2019 at 4:43 PM, LibertyBell said:

In the original unedited post that wasn't mentioned.  Either way, this "cold streak" was an island of cold in a sea of warmth.  Unprecedented warmth was surrounding it on all sides.

Well, what is interesting is that trends in the U.S. don't always follow the global ones. For the lower 48, since 2007 we've seen a shift to colder continental patterns during the cold season that has been opposite of global trends.

Compare the winters since 2007 to the decade that preceded. Complete anomaly reversal, and definitely colder overall.

9 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Like Bluewave stated it's like a tiny ice cube in a massive hot ocean. 

I'm pretty sure you'll still get isolated cold periods for several more decades until the warmth overwhelms everything unless of course we do manage to curb our emissions over the next 30-50 years.

Did you see the post I was responding to? He was saying we should be colder given the Alaskan blocking, and then referenced the weather in his backyard.

The western 2/3 of the country was very cold last month, including the all-time record for October.

On 11/8/2019 at 11:21 AM, LibertyBell said:

Yes, our first freeze is actually happening right when it's supposed to.  With all that extreme warmth in Alaska, it should be much colder than this.

You realize that the coldest temperature ever recorded in the lower 48 in October happened last month, right?