tennvolfan

You may be talking about Feb. 12, '85. Heavy rain all day the 11th turned to very heavy, wind driven snow after midnight after the strong LP moved up the Valley and arctic air rushed in behind and under it. about 2.5 inches of rain fell here the 11th before changeover around 1:15 that night. I heard the wind roaring during the night. Had to be gusts 40-50 mph. I got up at 7:30 a.m. as snow was winding down and went out and measured 15" in the level. There were 4 foot drifts beside my home! 
  Forecasts were for light amounts.

The 0z euro control went bonkers last night with a raging blizzard into the OH Valley Wed-Thursday and a fairly high impact event in west and much of middle. The Ops is similar in 500mb for the same time frame although not as robust although still snows in much of the state. Def something to watch. CMC and GFS don’t show this scenario.

Euro control still puts down a swath from Memphis to Clarksville Friday night/ Saturday am. It’s really close. 850’s appear favorable but ground temps are borderline and maybe would even be in the mid 30’s. Timing and strength will determine if it’s just an open wave with no thermals or something a little more potent that has some extra dynamics.

SER does flex on the euro control after this but it also has a possible overunning event a few days later as the arctic boundary wavers south. One thing is for sure. The 44 corridor is about to get clocked from OKC to St. Louis.

If we don't actually start reeling something into the d7 or less range soon, just have to assume its another headfake. Meanwhile I'm forecast to get to 28 tonight. 31 I think Wednesday night and not be below freezing otherwise the rest of the week. My normals this time of year are 42-21. Those were old normals though. It's like the earth tilted and we all live 100-150 miles south of where we did a few years ago.  

*** might** have a chance at a minor mixing event through parts of the state overnight Tues into Wed. As always boundary layer looks a tad too warm. Just depends on DP and evaporation cooling.

Looks like we are going towards one if those classic arctic air mass oozing southward against a possible SER. Where it ends up at this point is anyone’s guess. Tennessee can benefit from these scenarios. We actually could use some SER - not too much - to keep the air oozing rather than barrel through.

I wish you hadn't mentioned 13-14 and 14-15. I've tried to banish them from my memory. That was a great time to bust out of the long term snow drought, but SW and most of middle TN managed to screw up even in those cold years with some great patterns. 

Agreed on the wait and see for February. The clock is ticking, but we still have time to salvage a solid week or two of real winter in there somewhere. 

Living in the north Memphis metro( and it’s been different than the North MS burbs) the last 2 decades were far better than the 90’s. I’ve noticed an overall uptick in late winter events around here. Feb 28, 2009 (insane ULL), March 7-8, 2008 (near blizzard conditions), March 3 2014 (huge sleet storm that split Memphis in half and brutal cold temps for March), and of course maybe my favorite of the decade- March 4 2015 with an inch of sleet and 4-6 of snow. Keep in mind- none of these years had a significant winter storm in those January’s. (January 2018 was really decent here too.) Pre 2000, I would never have believed that late winter would produce without producing in January- but it appears it’s more likely now. I can’t find any records in this area (until the last 2 decades) that late winter events happened after nothing earlier. Maybe it’s a new precedent in this late phase positive AMO. I think the AMO needs to flip to see where the cards fall. We are nearly 25 years into the positive phase so it’s time is limited.

Branching out a bit from another forum where I’m known as Curt. Just read the content today in this thread and found it informative and interesting. I’ll still be there but will participate here as well from the Memphis area. Good to be here.

I’ve had a motto over the years....sometimes it’s just not meant to be. Jury is still out but I’m upping my motto percent for this winter. I’m still hoping for some Pac cooperation in February. It’s possible we shall see. If you look back at the dreadful winters from 1935-1939...it’s quite a bit similar.