Flying Bouncy House

5 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Oh goodie.  Do one for AOC!!!!!!

8 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

That is why this is banter for Dorian... Let er rip

Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk
 

Thanks, good to know.  I'll be sure to just post the NHC track next time I'm in the other thread.

I'm still new here, so I apologize for asking a dumb question.  Is this where the nowcasting comments go?  Seemingly folks are averse to those in the "main" thread.

Euro seems to be coming in west FWIW.

NHC is running out of water to work with.

6 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

Hurricane intensity forecasts are always a crapshoot, though.  Michael wasn’t supposed to get nearly as strong as it did right before landfall in the FL panhandle last year, either.

They certainly are, but other than the short-term track, there hasn't been much consistency in the models.  I would be very concerned with the Ukies, but we won't know until it progresses through the islands.  If it hasn't started turning NW by then, all bets are off and the panic will set in.  This is crazy stuff to watch, like the worst possible reality show you could imagine.

If the models don't predict rapid intensification, and any wobble or interaction with land mass could impact direction, I wouldn't discount any solution that has a Florida landfall.  I do see a couple ticks north on the satellite, but could wobble south again as the center moves over the islands.

Tornadic Supercell in Northeast OK is seemingly heading towards Joplin.  Just took a hook right and it's looking rather nasty...

Moderate to heavy snow here in Charles Town.  Probably 5-6 inches now.  No sign of changeover yet.

Anybody have the link to the ICON?

44 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Ice storm Warning would be a nice treat.  But we all know to get a good ice storm you need sub 30F...sub 25F preferred.  32 just is a lot of drip during the day.  But CAD is often hard to break and seems to verify colder. 

A treat?  1 inch of ZR is no treat, unless you're fighting a forest fire.

I've been having a bad feeling about the CAD on this one for a while.  We all know models don't handle it well, and with snow cover only partially melting and an additional inch or two falling, it doesn't really bode well.  

Hi all, I've been a lurker for a while now and decided to sign up.  I haven't seen any posts regarding CAD signals for the start of the event this coming weekend.  Any indication that may be a problem in certain areas along the I-81 corridor?