draco1188

Any idea when the system will begin being sampled? I just wonder if that will make a difference in the track of the low on future model runs? I've seen a couple mets mention artic highs tends to force a more southerly track, but the models want to take it on a more OK, into southern MO. Idk, wishful thinking maybe on my part. Holding out hope *fingers crossed*

Still coming down pretty heavy here. I haven't gotten out to measure but I'd say about an inch so far. I'm sure ground temps are causing some melting, but the rate is enough to keep a measurable amount. 

Wow - so I woke up at 10 a.m. to 33° and heavy snow in Russellville, AR and still snowing. I think most of the mets online are as shocked as I am. 

Anyone buying that SE jog of the L between 20-33 of the HRRR? It leaves NE AR in the dust without a flake. 

7 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

That's wild to me, is the elevation really THAT big of a factor down there?

Sadly, sometimes, yes. But mostly when shallow cold fronts arrive from the west/northwest. The cold air typically gets locked up in the mountains and funnels its way around them. If cold winds are out of the east though it plows right across the flat lands and down the river and cools us quicker. 

except for the AR River Valley  

2 minutes ago, NWAflizzard said:

Yeah.  I am hearing that they have 6 inches in El Dorado.  A cousin in Homer, LA, near the line says they also have 6 and it is still pouring.  That is five years worth of snow in one week.

WOW! thats crazy. I keep looking at radar hoping it will inch northward  - pretty sure Russellville is done for the day though.

Yeah I'm super jealous at south central Arkansas right now lol if you can, you should go to iDrive Arkansas website and take a look at the traffic cam in Pine Bluff right now. Visibility is down to a quarter mile. 

interesting mesoscale read on SPC - can only hope this continues over into Arkansas 

Ignore my previous post. lol looks like the kuchera ratio was actually closer to actual amounts here. I took a measurement in a bad location in my back yard. I just went out to get a more accurate reading and showing 7" - others in the Russellville area are showing 7 and its still snowing. 

6 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

I wonder if the really fine grain nature of the snowfall prevented it from really taking advantage of higher ratios

Probably so. Thats how a majority of the snow has been here. There were a couple bursts of the larger flakes here and there but man, if it only could have been all like that lol Maybe Wednesday-Thursday *fingers crossed*

idk about everyone else, but here in Russellville, AR the 10:1 ratio on the NAM actually turned out to be more accurate than the kuchera ratio. Yesterday the NAM was showing 4.8" on the 18z and 5.1" on the 00z - currently we are sitting at about 4.25" and still coming down.

NWS-LR just updated snow totals - I'm not mad at it. latest NAM run is giving me more hope for the Russellville area. Sitting at a good dusting right now.

Man, I'm hating the trend for my neck of the woods. 

NWSLR posted their thoughts on snow totals for the first storm..

2 minutes ago, KC Storm said:

Possible but it really depends on the track. If the storm got a bit too far west given the trough turning earlier its possible but I wouldn't sweat it just yet. You looking pretty good down that way! 

Man, I really hope so! I haven't seen a good snow here since Christmas 2012. 

Long time lurker and was just curious on some perspective.. if this gets a more neutral position rather than the positive tilt, will this result in a greater chance of a dry slot forming? Or is a dry slot something that could happen with either situation?

Hey everyone, followed this forum for a while and decided to finally create an account. Man, living in the valley sucks when it comes to these model runs. It's like it tries to pick up on the higher terrain around me, which looks like I might get a decent amount but will actually get close to nothing lol