Woodbridge02

Roads partially caved in Woodbridge/Dale City with steady light/moderate snow

0.7" just measured in Woodbridge east of 95. Light/moderate SN continues. 

Nice flake size in Woodbridge. Around 1/4 inch on the ground. Roads and sidewalks not caved yet

1 minute ago, Beachin said:

So the UK met looks the worst out of all the other models right now. Would be a outlier for sure

"Worst of all the models" would still give me 6-7" or more. But I think the GFS is similar though

Just now, Ji said:

its very close to going back to that long duration event. snow is still close at 7pm sunday

Qpf? 

The GFS 10-1 snowmap bumps my backyard from 2-3" to 4-5". Northern and especially northeast Maryland still fringed though. 

The GFS looks slightly better at 48

Edit: 54 looks like better coastal snow gets into DC. Stronger low and further north

Moderate snow to DC at 66 on GFS - significant improvement from 12z

4 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Right and the jackpot on the models is significantly farther North than the December storm, hence my optimism. Doesn’t mean we can’t get screwed but it’s worth noting that those of us South of DC have a decent shot at a warning event even based on current guidance

I'm really optimistic right now. I'd take the Euro/UK/CMC/FV3 over the GFS and NAM any day. Of course I'm always worried it could fall apart at short range but I think it's reasonably likely (~70%) that I at least meet my bar of 3". 

Edit: since the NAM looks like it's making a significant improvement it's just the GFS and GEFS vs everything else. 

So it's the NAM, ICON, and to an extent the Euro vs. every other model. If the Euro doesn't improve this afternoon I'll be a little worried. However my bar is 3" and I think at this point I'll probably reach it. Even the Euro gives me about that much. 

06Z FV3 is an improvement from 00Z. 

6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

GFS - 6-8

EURO - 2-4

CMC - 6-8

UK - 4-6

ICON - 2-4

EPS - 2-4 

GEFS - 3-6

Am I missing anything?  Seems like we’re locked in for at least a light event. 

NAM - Coating - 1"

This would be acceptable... but it's all from the Coastal which makes me a little worried. We've lost all of the safe bet initial precip. 

1-3" in the metro with 3-7" in Central VA

Precip vanishes at 84 on the GFS.... 

GFS looks stronger and further north at 54

Light/moderate snowshower in Woodbridge. Windy too. 

144 changes to rain and sleet out to Frederick and W Loudoun, Low Pressure at the mouth of the Chesapeake

GFS looks stronger and further north at 126

1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

96 and Snowmageddon 1 are tied again!

Breaking the tie in favor of Snowmageddon 1. That storm was absolutely insane - the fourth snowstorm I remember (3/1/09, 12/19/09, 1/30/10 being the other three). Power was out all through our neighborhood for days due to the heavy wet snow. If I remember it went back on briefly and was knocked out again by the second storm. Subdivision roads were blocked for at least 3 days and we had to stay in the basement because the rest of the house was freezing. I remember measuring 26" total at the end of the storm. Also I wasn't alive for the 1996 storm but even if I was I would probably still be voting for 2010. 

51 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

12z GFS has the NYE event.  Would be a nice storm to start the year.  Models have been keyed on this time period for days.  

How are we getting snow with the low so far south? (Newbie Question)

The way this winter is progressing reminds me of 2014-2015. We had a cold November with a moderate snow events in the suburbs, followed by a warmup in December, especially late December. I remember 60s around this time in 2014. I would be fine with a repeat, we don't need a historic winter especially since our last two have been so bad. 

59.9 with fog, temperature rose from 48 in the last hour.