Tallis Rockwell

Just now, Tallis Rockwell said:

Bizarre hurricane season, Hyperactive Atlantic with an almost dead GOM and Caribbean barring Imelda.  Absolutely crazy clash of so many different climate factors.

Idalia, Too many I-storms this decade!

Bizarre hurricane season, Hyperactive Atlantic with an almost dead GOM and Caribbean barring Imelda.  Absolutely crazy clash of so many different climate factors.

4 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Mission 3 is at the top of my TT recons.  I see #2 at the bottom now that I looked down the page.  It doesn't take much to confuse me.  Speaking of, nobody seems to think well of the NAM as a tropical model, but 30 minutes to the 18Z run.  Be interesting to compared 12Z and 18Z.  More interesting to compare the globals, of course.

You mean the sub 895 mb hyperstorm?

I don't like the strengthening trend with these models...

in less than a day, the models went from a low end hurricane landfall to a cat 3-4 landfall

11 hours ago, Normandy said:

Data from the ECMWF and UKMet in Dr. Knolls superblend are still suggestive of an active hurricane season despite the El Niño.   Still guessing we get a lot of named systems but perhaps not a lot of strong ones. 

I just can't see that happening with all the shear we've been seeing, El nino is only going to get stronger in the next few months. I am actually worried about the opposite. Just one window of weak shear could produce a monster storm with these crazy high SSTs

Spring-like conditions are shaping over Central and NE Texas, this friday: conditional but substantial tornado risk.

19z Update...
   Confidence has increased that the large-scale upper trough will
   eject eastward faster than previous forecast guidance suggested. As
   the upper trough is forecast to continue to intensify, increasingly
   robust low and mid-level wind fields are expected to overspread a
   destabilizing warm sector across much of central and northeast TX.
   The northeastern extent of the larger buoyancy is still somewhat
   uncertain, but strong forcing for ascent will likely support
   numerous thunderstorms with a risk for damaging wind gusts across
   portions of eastern OK, western AR and far southern MO. Confidence
   is highest that a strongly forced QLCS will move eastward near the
   cold front from early afternoon, and towards the Mississippi River
   Valley overnight. A 50+ kt low-level jet and large looping
   hodographs will favor damaging wind/mesovortex potential with the
   QLCS. The tornado threat remains less certain and is tied to the
   conditional risk for warm sector supercells ahead of the line, along
   with the magnitude of destabilization, and open warm-sector forcing.
   However, large 0-1km SRH (250+ m2/s2) and the potential for
   supercells does suggest a conditional risk for tornadoes (possibly
   significant). An Enhanced risk for mainly strong damaging wind gusts
   has been added for storms late Friday through early Saturday
   morning. The Slight Risk has also been expanded east for greater
   severe potential through the overnight hours with the QLCS.

NAM is showing some insane SRH over Houston Fri...

I am wholly unimpressed with this setup, Some dust is going to move into the Caribbean over the next several days, and with shear remaining persistent, I don't see this turning into another major storm unless something changes, with little to no enthusiasm from the models, I don't understand the hype behind this system.

12 minutes ago, Normandy said:

The season is not over.  I don’t know how else to illustrate to people this point.  It’s maddening

The parameters for Oct doesn't look favorable with more cold fronts and dry air, while another big storm is possible but unless we see an October like 2020 or 2005, we're not going to break average numbers

7 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Season already has been disastrous.  Members who still talk about seasonal busts should be 5-posted instantly.

Everyone was predicting an ABOVE AVERAGE season of 17-8-4, are we seeing this? No. 9-4-2 is this seasons totals so far and the setup for Oct isn't impressive, it's safe say to that in terms of storm numbers and ACE, this season will be average. The only 2 major hurricanes made significant impacts and that's the only reason anyone will remember this season. I'll say it again an impactful season doesn't have to be an active season.

6 hours ago, StruThiO said:

Up to two high-impact sure-to-be-retired major hurricanes before October with an entrenched La Nina. Wheres the 2013peat bustcasters now? I demand a refund

Everyone was predicting another hyperactive system which we are still not seeing, 1 or 2 major landfalls doesn't mean the season is active. Let's say that there are only 4 hurricanes for a season but that all make landfalls, does it sudden;y make the season active? Of course not. An impactful season doesn't have to be an active season.

Everybody is focusing on storms 11 days out because there isn't actually anything solid 1 week out which is still pretty distant for forecasting TCs, unless something seriously changes I can't imagine things getting much busier

4 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

The GFS has been abnormally consistent with this storm, & Mike Ventrice has his concerning forecast for those areas March 29th & 30th. 

 

Some models are having trouble with the exact dates, but there is strong consistency of the event ending on March 30th, so I've put down March 27th-30th until we get a better visual on this.

You beat me by 4 hours...

Confirmed tornado to the southwest of college station.

Looking at the HRRR and the environment, I am thinking that the SPC is going to expand the moderate risk to the east.

Reported tornado in hays.

10 minutes ago, radarman said:

Wx service calling it 'radar confirmed'

It's confirmed on the ground now.

10 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

HREF seems to support my idea for Texas this afternoon.  Best tornado chances I-35 from DFW area to Austin, along and North of a WSW-ENE line from AUS to CLL.

 

  Some spinners possible HOU area itself with morning lines.  Tomorrow's Louisiana/Mississippi STP with updraft helicities overlain is absolutely scary.

Houston has the parameters but the storm mode looks very messy but I think there could some significant tornadoes if one of the cells can get in a good position.

5 minutes ago, METALSTORM said:

DFW, Waco, and even down to near Austin look to be in play. 

What about Houston?

Parameters are looking good over here.

Models have been trending for more intense convection and a more favorable setup over SE TX. 10% Sig tornado risk for Houston, a nocturnal outbreak in a major metropolitan area is has some scary potential.

14 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

This is a contaminated sounding, note the red bars shooting off to the right.

Thank you. I didn't know.

NAM showing insane levels of Helicity over Northern LA...

Forgot the important stuff.

 Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a strong shortwave
   trough will drop southward from the Pacific Northwest into southern
   CA on D4/Monday and D5/Tuesday. This shortwave is then expected to
   eject eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the
   southern Plains on D6/Wednesday before continuing northeastward
   across the Mid MS Valley and Lower/Middle OH Valley on D7/Thursday. 

   Very strong mid-level flow will accompany the shortwave, with strong
   low-level flow anticipated throughout the warm sector ahead of the
   shortwave as well. This strong low-level flow will contribute to
   robust moisture advection, with upper 50s dewpoints into southern OK
   and low 60s dewpoints through much of central TX by early
   D6/Wednesday evening. This moisture advection will continue on
   D7/Thursday, with upper 50s dewpoints likely reaching into the
   middle OH Valley by D7/Thursday evening.

   The combination of lift, strong vertical shear, low-level moisture,
   and buoyancy will likely result in severe thunderstorms. Current
   guidance indicates the most probable location for severe storms on
   D6/Wednesday is from central TX northeastward across eastern OK,
   central/western AR, and northwest LA. For D7/Thursday, the severe
   risk extends from the Lower MS Valley through the Mid-South into the
   Lower OH Valley.

First major outbreak of the season?

8 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yup, I’ve since saw that but hadn’t heard at the time I made my comment. Much too low to have any impacts, though the blast itself was remarkable. 

We'll have to keep waiting for that awesome volcanic winter ):