scwxguy

34 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I'm not sure what to think about the overnight model runs. Late yesterday it was looking like Dorian would maybe hit south Florida and then run right out into the Gulf. That would spare us farther to the north a lot of the affects. But overnight the models have shifted back east some and now show a hit farther up the Florida coast with a curve north and northeast. At this point Florida is still in the cross hairs but again I'm suspect about a direct hit on the central and northern coast (...just doesn't follow history). So honestly I think there needs to be two cones; one running through south Florida and the other curving and heading towards the SC coast. But that's just my non-meteorological thoughts.... 

Me either, other than maybe windshield wiper effect? It's truly a maddening situation. No one here in Charleston is even paying attention to Dorian, completely written off as a Florida thing. If it takes a Matthew like track it is almost a week away from impacts here it looks like which is good. If it were to landfall here less time. 

If most of Florida is going to start evacuating tomorrow (that's a ton of people compared to GA/SC!) where would GA/SC people go if it suddenly came here? All those hotels in GA and even here are filled with FL evacuees. We are even planning to house a friend that is in Orlando if necessary.

At this point I'm just keeping an eye on it as we all are. Hopefully today adds more clarity not confusion. I expect FL officials will call for the evacuation today as well. They have to, running out of time.

12z Euro has a landfall at 120 hrs/Monday near Ft Lauderdale and Palm Beach Co, then into GOM. This is further south than 00z

Euro is running...

10 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

That'll take me out to about 2:30.

 

Right now for a purchasing decision I'm thinking less about storms and more, what could I use this thing for. I have no plans on getting an RV or tailgating so that's out. No clue what people use them for when camping because I've always done remote backcountry stuff out west. My landscaping stuff and mosquito fogger is all electric and it would be nice not to sling 200' worth of extension cords around. I'm leaning towards buying one because of that reason alone. It's not going to be a decision made because of unreliable model tracking 5 days out.

I'm watching the GFS, panel for hour 114 just came out at the time of this post - much more south and looks to be in line with NHC forecast. We'll see what the next ones show for any turn north.

Yeah not much other use for the generator for us either, but I view it as cheap insurance against power failures. I have no regrets that I have it. They can happen at any time. Transformers blow up, car crashes into a substation, etc. They've all happened to me. I lived up north prior to this and winter storms were what you had one for to keep your blower motor going on the furnace and the fridge. There were outages near me that were days in sub-freezing cold following ice storms. That's life threatening vs just miserable after a hurricane. I was down in Florida after Charley. Taught me to respect them.

2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Save the $300.  Better yet, don't even order one yet.  Lots of hype here as with all first canes of the year.  But modeling still shows a very small storm, might not even be a Cat 2 at landfall, and still showing a greater likelihood for a FL landfall.  Even if it recurves and stays just offshore you will be fine in Charleston.  I'd play the waiting game on this one.

I'd wait until the deadline to ship to get here by Friday and assess then

1 minute ago, Ser Pounce said:

Awesome, and it looks like it gets here Friday if I order in the next few hours. Looks better than the ones from Lowes/HD/Sam's on top of it, and it's definitely the right time to sell my old one.

 

I'll wait for the next update from the NHC before pulling the trigger but this looks like a strong buy.

It's also very easy to move around. Has a handle that flips out and the wheels are good. It is also very compact. Barely takes up any space in my garage. The ones at HD/Lowes are not nearly as nice and more expensive and huge!

1 minute ago, Ser Pounce said:

Yeah I remember it ramping up pretty fast with at least one of the three that came by. This is stuff I buy every year and after hurricane season slowly consume so it won't be stale the next year or whenever it's needed. I should've bought all of it in July.

 

Also I need to getting around to tuning up the generator since the voltage output is a bit off. A lot of modern appliances have too much electronics and I'm a little reluctant to plug something into what's probably a pretty dirty power source. It's probably 35 years old. Any recommendations for a good replacement? If needed it would power a fridge and maybe a window unit or a (LED) lighting circuit or two at home. I'm an electrician among other things so wiring that up is not a problem.

I ordered this off Amazon in 2017 ahead of Irma: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00BBDCE1S/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o01_s01?ie=UTF8&psc=1 I used it last year when the backside of Michael came through and knocked out power for a few hours. It's an inverter so good clean power. Also variable speed so only cycles up to demand. Seems to sip fuel and very quiet. Powered my fridge, portable AC and small electronics without any issues.

34 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

Yep. I haven't watched the news in a couple of days thanks to mom flying over to visit, but I'm sure that kind of talk will start coming out today or tomorrow. She had great timing!

 

Might as well make a Sam's and Publix run today or tomorrow because I never replenished last year's supplies. It's entirely premature, but anyone taking bets on whether we'll have evacuation orders in Charleston County for a 4th year in a row?

Ch 2 this morning is fairly confident that the storm is blocked and sent into Florida: https://www.counton2.com/weather/hurricane-central/dorian-expected-to-become-a-hurricane-by-friday-threat-to-the-united-states-increasing/

Still, I would get on that run early today. Just was in Harris Teeter in Mt Pleasant and they had water in the aisles and at the door. That is going to start making people unaware become aware. Watching the tropics is now on the forecast. If Dorian does indeed track here as the GFS legacy and operational show it is going to go from 0 to panic in a few hours time, and there won't be much time to prep and evac. It all seems dependent on the ridge. Lots of models showing Florida still as does the Euro, but GFS says Charleston. However if I remember correct the GFS doesn't always have a good handle on ridges which is the key factor here.

No reason not to be prepared starting today, I am advising my neighbors of the same. We'll know a lot more this evening, but so will everyone else. I track to be ahead of the masses and make pre-emptive decisions.

On 8/25/2019 at 9:24 AM, Ser Pounce said:

I'll read over there but not say much. Honestly I'm staying away from there more this year because watching stuff from too far out gets kind of stressful after a while.

Yeah, lots of doom forecasting for a very compact, weak storm that has a lot going against it. People assume everything will rapidly intensify to a major hurricane after the last few years. Anything can happen but the current track, interaction with Hispaniola's mountains and dry air don't point to a catastrophic event at this time.

My wife was already asking where our "hurrication" is going to be this year. I said don't plan on it. Certainly has been a lot of close calls last few years and people are beginning to expect it as new normal when it is an aberration. 

55 minutes ago, yotaman said:

I hope it remains that way for the rest of the year.

Me too. Been enough activity over the last few years. Years like this balance the bad ones. It is still early, but the quiet has been good.

Happy Met Spring to all!

I was on Hilton Head Island this past weekend. Tree pollen is out. Assume it will be out here this week in CHS.

48 minutes ago, Reedski said:

Thanks. I put mine down yesterday before the rain today. 

When do you typically put it down in the fall? I put it down late September and again December 1 and my yard is still eat up with chickweed this spring. Guess I’ll try putting it down in August this year.

If you are seeing issues try getting it down earlier and check the product you are using.

I put down Dimension (Dithiopyr) 20% granules from a local landscape supply store - in early February, follow up again in 8-12 weeks and then do the same at Labor Day and in early November. I've followed their advice and had great results. I've been doing it 4 times a year recently but I inherited a mess. I had dandelions, chickweed, henbit, poa annual in the winter and crabgrass and spurges in the summer. Now I have no winter weeds and practically no crab grass and spurges after 18 months of this treatment. Will likely reduce to 2x per year this fall to once in the fall at Labor Day and early Feb now that I have things under control. The grass has filled back in and looks great. I have mostly St Augustine in my front yard and Empire Zoysia in the back.

The key is to get the stuff down ahead of the weed seeds germinating. Get a quality product from a local landscape supply center and avoid Scott's and other things at the Big Box stores. It's worth the few extra bucks - really not that much more at all - for a quality product.

17 hours ago, wncsnow said:

And you all were hating so bad on my posts a month or 2 ago about this winter sucking and being over... LAte next week I expect flowers and cherry trees to bloom for parts of the south 

Saw that last week of January here in Charleston. Last night I was out at sunset and the frogs were deafening. Also other insects as well chirping away. 

On 2/5/2019 at 10:07 AM, Reedski said:

With the warmup this week, should I go ahead and put down preemergent? Seems so early but can’t miss that window.

Our usual date to apply by is 2/15. I put mine down yesterday in Mt Pleasant, SC. Soil temp is already moving past 55 here especially areas in full sun. We've been 75-80 for 4 days now. I'm seeing new green shoots of grass appearing. There is a large window to get it down early, but if you are late, it's ineffective. Do it now and follow up again in 8-10 weeks.

I put the pre-emergent down this morning and kicked on the irrigation. My PWS hit 73 Monday, 84 yesterday. Already at 80 again today and at least two more days on tap of this. Soil temp is above 55°. It's time!

59 minutes ago, magoos0728 said:

It's incredible how bad of a handle local Mets have on winter weather around here. Time to look forward to spring.

Having lived in the Chicago area for 30+ years I can honestly say that you really don't want a Midwest winter. It's a never ending struggle. It's either cold and dry, cool but not cold enough or it's extremely cold and snowy. It's awful.

There's nothing fun about a late April snow and upper 40's with a breeze off Lake Michigan for Father's Day. 

+1

There is a reason I am the contrarian in here hoping for no cold weather or snow.  When it snowed here in CHS last January I knew it wasn't normal but at the same time thought I didn't move far enough south. After 30+ years of the above abuse living in Chicago and just a few blocks of the lake an endless winter followed by a cold spring with constant "lake effect" days with warm weather that can be equally fleeting in summer you never want to deal with any of it again. There have been years with "June Gloom" of endless cloudy cool days and even cold 4th of Julys. One thing that is always guaranteed is winter will arrive on schedule.

Moving to the south and eliminating winter has been an improvement in my quality of life unlike any other. I many of you enjoy it and the prospect of something that isn't typical, but you can easily get on a plane and see it for yourself

Spending 6 months of the year counting down to the next warm season is no way to live!

17 hours ago, griteater said:

Chicago goes from a HIGH temperature of -11 on Wednesday to rain on Saturday night / Sunday.  This winter proving to be an equal opportunity fail boat. 

I'm originally from Chicago. Winter never fails. It ended late last year in May - literally was in the 30s consistently until then and came on early with a foot of snow in early November. Now all time record cold. They just had 8 inches of snow Sunday into Monday. Rain and temps in the mid 30s is common. But they have at least 2 solid months of winter to go. 

2 hours ago, Turner Team said:

I think its so funny that all of a sudden everybody is giving up on winter when we are only halfway through winter..

Those of us very far south, points from where I am at in Charleston on down, "winter" is for all intents and purposes about over. The sun angle and length of day is rapidly increasing. For VA, I would agree, still lots of time to go as you are much farther north and more prone to the mid-latitude storm systems.

We can see a few cold nights and get around 32 (at 6-7am just before sunrise or for a few hours at best) a few more times here on the Charleston coast but that window is closing with every passing day. After this week, GFS 2m temps are showing 67-70 each day and lows in 50s at night for several days. 

About time to get the pre-emergent down in the yard.

Spring is getting underway in the Charleston area. Lots of trees budding and flowering out in Azalea Park in Summerville this past weekend. Had a new bloom this morning out in the backyard as well.  

Here's an alternative view to almost all on this board. I'm enjoying the warm weather and still shake my head in amusement at all the cold and snow lovers here. I'm closely following the potential record arctic outbreak up in the midwest next week while enjoying this near 70 degree afternoon in CHS. Even got to the pool on Saturday. Was great!

The cold nights we've had lately have been an annoyance and hoping they are about behind us. Doesn't need to be hot yet, but less cold nights in the 30s and fewer cloudy days would be appreciated. 

As I see the pictures of snow and the barbaric cold on FB from friends and family up north I'm glad to no longer be part of that soul crushing misery.

16 hours ago, cbmclean said:

More proof of the variability of the human condition

For me personally, I can handle hot humid days pretty well, even working outside.  But I have to have a cool dry place to go to at the end of the day, especially to sleep at night.  Actually since AC is so widespread down here I bet our northern brethren may be tougher in that regard than us.  I know that when I go visit my wife's extended family in Western PA I am always terrified of the possibility of a warm spell, because no one has A/C, and sleeping upstairs can be suffocating.

Yes I too enjoy retreating to the AC in the evening. I wouldn't be happy without it. I remember moving down here and it seemed unbearable to work outside at all for the first few weeks. Now I cut the lawn at high noon in July without even thinking about it!

What has been most interesting is that setting the AC anywhere below 78 feels unbearably cold. Back up north even 74 was pushing it to be too warm. It's all humidity. 80 degree dewpoints vs 60s to near 70. Even 70 degree dewpoints feel "refreshing" after a period of 80 dewpoints.

21 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

But you being in Charleston I can assure you last year wasn't the norm down there. You won't see many winters with snow there.

Makes me happy! Seeing snow and palm trees was just strange to me. I was caught off-guard with everything shutting down. I know it wasn't normal and it hadn't been seen in many years. Having moved here just in time for the first snow in years and then seeing posts on this thread showing coastal SC, GA and FL being the only below normal temps this winter on the forecast maps make me wonder if it is just following me and I need to move to Florida.

Now I know I need to be prepared to not be able to eat out or hit the grocery store if it happens again. I had a police car pull up to me at a stoplight when I was out driving in it (literally one of the only cars on the road in the middle of the afternoon!) and he asked me where I was going and if I was ok to drive. I replied to him I'm fine to drive I have 36 years of experience in the snow, the question is are you ok to drive? He said fair enough and be safe!

From talking with many of my neighbors I'm one of the odd ones. They've been waiting for cooler temperatures while I have felt an urgency to get out in the pool and beach as much as possible before the heat and humidity dissipates. I love the heat and humidity. When I lived up north I would sit outside and soak it in with a cold beer in the week or two we had of it. I just like hot weather and to me it never gets old, and neither do the pictures of sunshine and outdoor activities I share on Facebook with friends and family as they complain about yet another snowstorm 

Carry on!