Well... a hunch. I'm not going to claim it was scientific because I'm not well-versed enough to back it up. I'm unemployed right now so my thing is... staying up all night and staring at maps. Radar, wind, pressure, ocean temp, etc. Saw it as an invest with the winds going the way they were, used the WindMap app to track it forward 5 days, and decided I didn't believe it was going to take a northward turn. Looked like it was on a fairly straight course. I know things are unpredictable two weeks in advance, just had a hunch.