WeatherLovingDoc

48 minutes ago, LP08 said:

1.72” here in Arlington.  Best storm of the year here in my eyes.  Getting a little nervous of the storms west of here and rolling through, flood warning already in place.

Are the storms coming close to North Arlington and Alexandria? We just got our electricity back and I'm sick of the thought of loosing it again (too many times this summer Dominion Virginia Electric).

2.63" here in Alexandria. No, no tornado that was a fluke listing (strange). Thanks.

Local and trustworthy retired Met in Alexandria saying tornado alert now. Any one seeing this?

Electricity went out in storm here in northern AVA around 3:30 pm. I had to find Dominion Virginia outage number  so called around 3:50 pm to notify of our address. I looked on my iPhone at their site, they said 50,000 out in NOVA. My city had about 5000 out. It was a whopping thunder and lightening storm here. We had a generator on and back up sump batteries but still I am always anxious when electricity will return. Well it did at like 5:10 pm. Very thankful to Dominion Virginia crew. It doesn't look to bad outside wrt thunderclouds right now.

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like the NOVA stuff is gusting out.  

What does this mean, Eskimo Joe?  The risk if lessoning? I'm very concerned about these storms, and also very un-knowledgable. 

Very impressive thunder here.

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Absolutely dumping out of this pop-up storm in N Arlington. Heaviest rain since last July.

Was that the infamous 6"hour storm? Gosh how time flies: I remember it well.

That seemed greater rate than 1inch/hour here in Alexandria to me.More like 2inch plus for brief period of time. Where's Yoda?

Two years ago this June, we had a huge unstable storm. I still remember yelling out to my kids and their friends to "come in now" and they poured in. Before I knew it, our downstairs was filled up with high schoolers and early college students.

I want to leave you with one pertinent fact: after the deluge, while they were getting restless to leave and I said please not yet, there was a horrific lightning flash and boom that took down a tree next door. Always, always wait and check your local radar and weather people before dismissing. I am thankful to this day I stood my ground and when they heard that boom, the rooms went silent and they learned too. Kids!! I love em.

54 in NOVA and spitting rain. Should be an interesting weather day.

I appreciate where you experts are coming from. No sirs and madams on local, I am wondering where local "true risks"abound"such that our phones go off" in all hours all hours of the day and night then nothing happens. Imho: if it doesn't occur, we weaken our stance.


 

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m not sure what relevance the “youth” have but LWX definitely does overwarn. Ian and others on Twitter discussed it just recently, and it doesn’t take a met to see that LWX often warns sub-severe stuff.

In a busy metro area where it isn’t hard to see tree damage, I get it, but it’s overdone. Ian mentioned tiered warnings, IIRC, which I certainly wouldn’t mind. Likely confusing to the general populace.

Totally off-topic, but a heck of a storm season we’ve been having. Been busy. Somewhat jealous I’m still not back in town!

Here is what I texted my kid in response to Alexandria alert last night: 

11:08 pm June 19 2019 : " The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Alexandria. Seek indoor shelter immediately." No such happened. I want to know what this was based upon. Folks, in the end, you are crying wolf when we need to be not so.

As a follower of American Weather, I applaud you all. But I will say again, too many "wolf cry's at all hours on iPhone/Samsung will negate the benefit. Our "youth" are different.

27 minutes ago, TSG said:

So the suggestion here is for NWS to only warn storms after they've already happened? Makes sense to me 

How do you explain " seek shelter immediately' warnings within 2 days when no weather  happened then?

8 minutes ago, TSG said:

So the suggestion here is for NWS to only warn storms after they've already happened? Makes sense to me 

Please. I vote for serious alerts. I'm just saying "less serious alerts" so we don't "cry wolf" at all hours which imho opinion happened in my town. How do I pass otherwise the real alerts from the other, I ask you? We must distinguish! I am forever thankful to my friend who alerted me such that I took my kids to basement level. 

7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The problem with this kind of storm setup is that there is a lot of heat/moisture to fuel the storms, but the triggers are very subtle.  Unlike a squall line or supercell where movement can be counted on, these cell just kind of ooze around and then die out.  So, putting up a warning box is especially tough.  The storm last night looked really healthy, and 30 min late it was remnant clouds.  Nature of the beast.  Not to mention, the areas that get hit by severe conditions are almost always very small.

I understand what you are saying. I've been watching weather for years. But I am concerned for our populous,youth/younger people who may become "use to these local warnings" which do not pan out or are given too frequently .Imho, better to alert to the following as my best friend did: "On June 29, 2012, a devastating line of thunderstorms known as a derecho (deh REY cho) moved east-southeast at 60 miles per hour (mph) from Indiana in the early afternoon to the Mid-Atlantic region around midnight.

Last night at 11:08 pm Alexandria Va residents received a Severe Weather Warning via NWS. It woke me up and I alerted my kid. Nothing happened. Today (8/20/19 at 5:34 pm) we received another NWS Severe Thunderstorm Warning. "Seek indoor shelter immediately". So far nothing.

Is the NWS crying wolf to soon? Or too much? Serious question. 

12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looking like a healthy chance at some widespread gully washers Monday-Tues 

Day 3 slight for excessive rain 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=3

Disco sounds bullish...moderate risk likely to be implemented by sounds with multiple rounds in areas 

Thank you for your post. Lot's going on and need some future guidance for next week.

4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Per wv imagery, it’s just about gametime for the metros. Hoping to see some cells moving thru.

What does this mean specifcally for the I 95 corridor from Baltimore to Northern Virginia? I need to let my spouse know and now!

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

radar starting to juice up to the west as well and there's some lightning showing up on spark with those cells moving through frederick...

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-N0Q-1-24

Wow, Thank you very much for this detailed Sterling radar. Sure does look like Baltimore DC will be hit. 

Hello. Any particular updates on severe weather for Baltimore to Washington DC corridor? Got family traveling today. Tyvm. WLD.

23 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Pretty monster -AO pattern.. we haven't seen anything like this for a while.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

Quote

"When pressure at the Arctic is exceptionally high, the AO is "negative," when pressure is low, it is "positive." Is this correct? For us newbies, please describe typical weather outcome or implication. Thank you so much (I read but often still don't understand).:)

 

Heavy rain not much wind. White out from front and back windows. Glad no wind.

We always lose power when these kind of storms occur. Maximum days without power was 10, when we had toddlers.

8 minutes ago, H2O said:

not much doing so far near that blob just SW of the beltway near Fairfax/Burke

You are closest to me and have weather knowledge more than I. Please update as needed. I'm also concerned with Baltimore City where a kid lives. Tyvm for your help.