CADEffect

Should be an interesting approach here. NE to SW center pass. SFMR gusts (rain contaminated) are pretty strong. 

1 hour ago, griteater said:

We'll worry about verification later, but for now... 

 

https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1175489102193602562?s=20

 

Lets hope it holds...Last year was different

Hi guys,

South Carolina here more presumably the Upstate between Charlotte and Atlanta. Do you care if I stay for a bit. I'm always learning and its a little more exciting in this group.

On ‎8‎/‎22‎/‎2019 at 4:15 PM, mackerel_sky said:

Good riddance! ! Take his conservative forecasting with him!

Now you have a snow weenie to take his place

1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

I've always hated these maps. The passing eye would think 'scorcher' but in reality, a 30% probability is just as likely not to verify.

What do they use for their data to back this claim? balloons?

Just now, mackerel_sky said:

The CPC can’t even get their 7 day and 14 day temp and precip maps right! I wouldn’t put much stock or worry in their 90 day outlooks! The Eastcoast above normal precip , is already verifying wrong!

Have you or others started looking at seasonal models yet? CSFv2 ect...

1 hour ago, Solak said:

 

What sucks most is that there is no where in the United States that has normal temps through December. per CPC

1 minute ago, Snow dog said:

This looks legit, with the snow hole in Western SC..

I Agree it needs to be suppressed a bit further south for us in the Upstate

Nice hit for North Carolina, Not so much for South. Really like the STJ energy on this run. Would like to see higher QPF not sure on trends yet 

on the less confident train of the FV3. NCAR is partnering with IBM on the new model to replace deep thunder/blunder.

6 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Wasn't icon on board with a storm on 1/31 as well?

People actually uses the ICON?

9 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

I would rather the models be wishy washy with the storms etc, 9/10 times if the models consistently run a storm for MBY for days and days in a row especially in the 5-10 day range once we get inside 2-3 days it goes to hell......but if they don't pick up on it good till inside 5 days they tend to actually pan out much better.....I am pretty confident there will be several legit threats for many places in the SE after mid next week......

I agree the models has been doing horrible with this pattern change. The data changes more frequently with abnormal patterns 

So much for our "big dog" on the 31st.

Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

And once again, screws us in the south and east...  You had your turn, let us have ours 

I still have hope for you guys on the same system. the Cold air is very potent in what's been modeled so far today.

With the FV3, Euro and CNC all indicated a storm during this time frame. Its perfect for us in the western Carolinas. With the notorious NW trend these areas are already below540 on h5 maps. It will be interesting to see what the 0z Euro spits out with the temps. Just need the GEFS to come on bored then I think I start losing sleep. What about you guys?

2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Getting that feeling now we will see something between the 25th and 31st but too far out still for details, exact locations, and amounts

What is giving you that feeling?

For what its worth, The Euro had a surprise at hr240 nice high sitting over Iowa and New England with a low forming over Louisiana was pushing southeast toward the GOM.

The more our American models run the more I'm convinced something is a foot. 384hr the GFS has the 540line all the way in Baja California. Granted I know its 384 but you just don't see that. Some of the data also doesn't make sense. A warm up around the late on the 12z

5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

 

You do NOT want energy to start getting shunted out into the SW and off the west coast, causing a trough out there unless you have a big time west -NAO pressing the vortex south.  You don't want it split either, having a piece over western Canada and one over eastern Canada with a weakness in the middle for storms to work into.

This is not a good look at all.  Fortunately, it's the 0z 384 Op GFS.  So it's unlikely to evolve this way.

 

The 6z looks like this.  Even worse:

 

At least its a good look for the other boards. Like you said it wont materialize due to the fact its 384hrs.

Side note: Where did you guys read that the shutdown was impacting the American weather models?

You guys don't know how to handle this upcoming pattern change just like these models don't. Chill  

8 minutes ago, griteater said:

Winter temperatures to date

 

Wasn't that predicted in November with the ensembles? Cooler out west and warmer in the East for December? This goes in line with a moderate El Niño. The East gets hit hard with cold temps in February and March.

4 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Euro ends up placing weekend LP right over Richmond. Think this might benefit NW NC Mtns on backside

 

need it further south for me in the upstate. Timing matches up with the GEFS

6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Almost a Banana HP, LP would just slide underneth us. Wishfull thinking

A lot could still change...looks better then yesterday

3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

I think the 24th-25th storm is our best bet in the immediate long range. 1040+ high over the NE, low on the gulf coast, arctic air behind, and at least some lingering cold from the initial cold burst. I think the storm is cutting too soon on the GFS with the high where it is.

Agreed the FV3 showed this storm on Friday as a major miller A on the run 12z January 11. Now the GFS is sniffing one out. I must say I do like the HP placement at this time period

How’s the triad areas doing guys. Do we have a obs thread?


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