Papa Joe

On 9/14/2018 at 10:48 PM, f2tornado said:

 

 

The best part about the video, is that the wind was blowing from behind him. He was leaning in the wrong direction. 

Right now, the area around Myrtle Beach has below-normal water levels since the offshore flow from the southern half of the storm blowed it all out to sea.

In fact, Florence has blown the sea out to sea in Myrtle Beach. The ocean at MB has pulled back from the beach, and the ocean is flat as a pancake as far as the eye can see, as this cam link that Macdaddy posted shows: https://www.earthcam.com/usa/southcarolina/myrtlebeach/resort/?cam=coralbeach

When the eye passes, it'll not only get the north-side surge, but it'll also get the slosh as the normal coastal waters return to their normal levels. I wonder how much that will contribute to the surge? 

eta:spelling

https://abc11.com/weather/150-needing-rescue-after-getting-trapped-in-attics-in-new-bern/4242281/

'We are coming to get you:' 150 needing rescue after getting trapped on roofs, in attics in New Bern

38 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Damn.  MYR might be getting hit hard.  NWS forecast this afternoon has gusts to 83kts

Live reports show the offshore wind at MYR has the ocean pushed way back (extra wide beach) with no significant waves due to the offshore wind flow. The ocean is about as calm as can be. When the center of circulation gets south of MYR, it'll get a 'extra' surge.

1 hour ago, Random Chaos said:

I just looked back at the COMP4 guage again, and it is still going up, insanely so. Wish we had something independant to say whether or not it is malfunctioning: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=sju&gage=comp4 The -999 flow entries are suspicious of malfunction:   Observed Data:
|Date(UTC)|	|Stage|	|--Flow-|
09/20 20:51	79.45ft	-999kcfs
09/20 20:35	79.97ft	-999kcfs
09/20 20:31	78.62ft	-999kcfs
09/20 20:30	78.62ft	-999kcfs
09/20 20:15	60.54ft	-999kcfs
09/20 20:00	59.16ft	-999kcfs
09/20 19:30	30.48ft	-999kcfs
09/20 19:26	24.90ft	76.2kcfs
09/20 19:21	22.77ft	57.8kcfs
09/20 19:15	22.04ft	52.3kcfs
09/20 19:00	21.50ft	48.4kcfs

I believe -999 is a missing value, so probably no more gauge (or no working gauge)

4 minutes ago, f2tornado said:

Insane if even remotely accurate. Almost 100x record flow rate. 

I tend to believe it. If you look at the gauges on the east of the island, you'll see the peak flood already starting to recede. That's what you'd expect with steep terrain. 

Note that the streams on the west are still on the way up. 

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Several rivers are already near record flood stage.

 

 

I can't imagine how much rain they got to get such a sharp rise. 

2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Radar has almost Andrew-like appearance:

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles

(different track but Charley 2004 perhaps)

Heading straight for Roseau Dominica unfortunately, pray for a wobble. 

The satellite animation (drop down) on that page is even more amazing. The eye goes from non-existant to pinhole in the course of a few frames.