weaponxreject

I would have toned it down.
Yes, preparation is great, but leading the governor in NC to say its the storm of a lifetime is a problem. Why? because people who weren't that effected will stay next time.
I think the NHC should know by now that model intensities are terrible. Need to tread lightly. The stall and crawl and just climo in general argued heavily against a CAT 4 or even a CAT 3 coming in.  I'd even say a CAT 2 was a stretch. But people on here even started whispers of a CAT 5. THE NHC put out that people should expect winds of up to 120MPH. They forecasted a CAT 4 moving in at one point. That was overkill IMO.
Again, there needs to be a balance. People need to take it seriously, but they get too carried away with the hype and ignore climo.

Per the "up to 120mph", definitely didn't happen sustained wise, and gusts were mostly in the ~100mph range, so the guidance wasn't off much for those on the coast imho. Agreed, the Cat5 talk needed to be toned down. Especially when, per the SS scale and keeping in mind the general public's knowledge, there isn't really a huge difference between a 4 and 5 wind wise, and one could potentially argue that after a TC reaches a 3 the Cat is irrelevant.

I understand keeping a balance. Idk, maybe I didn't hear/see any of the fear-mongering you're referring to because I was mentally balls deep in the meteorological side versus public side.

Per the climo though... I've seen it referenced over and over by experienced Mets and by weenies on forums like these that this wasn't a storm one could really compare to climo because of the stack of statistical anomalies involved. Were they all wrong? Were they all focusing too much on those outliers versus the larger synoptic picture, so to speak? I want all input and perspectives because it could very well be me one day writing a FD for dissemination by the NHC... Conversations like these matter, but the hyperbole from both sides damages the goal, I feel, of properly conveying threat to life and property.

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Ok so they broke the record in 1877. I would say more than likely this is easily a 300 year event. So there is a .33% chance of this hapenning every year for the next 300 years. Me winning the lottery or a mega tusnami wiping out the eastern seaboard in the next 300 years is like .00001%. Am sorry, but it's all about numbers bro. A minor event in the large scale of time.

I completely understand that, on a timeline that large, small impact. Cool.

How does that factor into the average life span for the country/region? People who have migrated into the state from regions that don't have storms like this regularly, if ever? Isn't it a bit too objective to look at this situation from that much of a macro? The numbers and data meteorologists and weenies focus on are all fine and good, that's more or less why I'm as interested as I am. I constantly struggle with remembering that that data often has very real life-changing and life-threatening impacts downstream.

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I couldn’t agree more. This thread made me cringe then puke in my mouth. 
Anyone we thinks this storm did not live up to the hype has no understand of meteorology and really should read more and post less. Almost doubling a states previous record for rainfall in a single tropical cyclone. Easily a 1000 year event. 

Check out @NWSWilmingtonNC’s Tweet:

This one tweet says it all...

I've read a lot/posted little with a rudimentary understanding of the general mechanics of tropical systems and for the last week have been pushing my friends/family in the area to pay attention to the surge and flooding potential.

I don't understand the vitriol. I really don't. Why are people being so damn negative? For real, I wish someone would explain their position rationally.

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I think Solak is scarred because his location has apparently replaced wherever Shetley lives as the desert spot of the east.
Seriously though, some folks in my hometown of Hope Mills are at risk of being flooded out for the second time in three years.

Born and raised (Aaron Lakes West) in that area. Didn't the town drain HM Lake last week in prep? I'm catching reports it's back up toward full/minor because of the Cape Fear River.

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I guess I just don't understand why people can't bring themselves to admit where there was screw ups.
Its a fact that this didn't hit the strength that it was forecasted to hit. Thats all. And thats huge. It is something we should have learned from last year with Irma.
In most professions, when there are screwups, people get fired. The least that could be offered is , here is what went wrong, here is how we plan to learn from that in the future.

I wanna ask you this, with no disrespect intended...

What would you have done, if you were at the NHC or any of our NWS offices (RAH, ILM, etc) if coming into Wed/Thurs last week all/majority guidance indicated the intensity projected? iirc nothing was showing the potential for southerly wind shear, series of EWRC, and the dry air. How would you have worded AFDs, and how would you have communicated that guidance to the media and the public?

I genuinely want to know, not to prove a point or attack you for your posts. I hope to, within the next 5-10 years, be working at the NHC or in the private sector wrt tropical systems. Communication of threats and dangers related to these storms is crucial to ensuring preparation and protection of life and property. Intensity forecasting confidence definitely lags behind track forecast confidence, and after reading discussions by those like DT and Cranky and Allan, it's been interesting to the the debates between those who focus on models and those who focus on synoptic/observational for forecasting.

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At this point, people are going to keep comparing it to other storms to find ways to bash the media because they WANT to be mad about something and at someone. We haven't even begun to fully realize the effects of the flooding we're in for here, nevermind what this storm is going to do in the mountain regions in the coming days.

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Just an ordinary 28 ft. surge.  Yawn.

That's what I thought... Thanks! Good to know hurricanes aren't ever something to worry about unless you live near something the army core of engineers built

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Not to keep beating the drowned horse, but didn't Katrina bring storm surges of over 20ft with it?

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150 people need rescue according to this New Bern twitter account. Also reported by Fox News.

 

ABC News is reporting the same, including an interview with an Emergency Services representative, iirc. Tornado Warning for southern Warren county just went up to, until 3:30am

 

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fwiw, here's the story. It was never not the story.

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Thankfully, we have the internet. It's just unfortunate that live feeds, outside of satellite, are pretty much limited to the availability of working cell towers. I'm sure we have some brave souls out there tonight who will eventually get us the story- it just won't be tonight.

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All this pecking at a keyboard... Where's your camera at?

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