Jandurin

the storm that almost never was

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's going bye bye in a year.  It's a shit model, and we all know it.   We're looking for any life raft at this moment. 

none of them look very good to me right now

Just now, Ji said:

if we cant trust the NAM one day before the storm starts...why is it in operation?

if the NAM wins this will they still retire it

seems obvious sit and wait mode

even if we aren't getting hit

7 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

So much time invested with little reward.

the reward is the snowmaps we saw along the way

snow jealousy is something i wouldn't believe in if i didn't see it here

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok a few points rattling through my brain

1) there are actually things I like better about this Euro run.  It focuses on the arctic boundary wave associated with the TPV more (as I suspected and hoped guidance would come around to) and because of that it develops the system and starts to mature sooner.  It moves a little quicker which cuts down snow totals from HECS to MECS levels.  But its a much safer way to go, this progression would have a lot less bust potential than relying on the late bomb phase capture tuck scenario of the 12z euro where everything gets under us and we need it to come straight north really to get us...a SW to NE trajectory is much safer if we want to guard against a really bad GFS like outcome which honestly is more important to me than shooting for the moon here.  Yea I would LOVE 20" but if it comes with a big risk of 2-4" instead...I'd rather take a safe 10-15" snowstorm.  

2) The 12z op euro was one of the snowiest solutions across the EPS.  There was one absolutely bonkers run that was a 2016 1996 type redux with 30"+ across the whole area...then there were 4 members that were similar...but the op was an extreme outlier high end solution.  It was probably just random chance that it spit out one of the bigger permutations.  A 8-15" type snow was the more common result across members.  And then there were some "blah" minority results also...BTW among those there were more misses due to over amplified cutters than OTS GFS solutions, but there were a few of those too.  All that to say, the 20" HECS solution was never the most likely outcome even within the euro suite.  

3) anyone who throws a fit if we end up with a 10-15" snowstorm should be taken out back the woodshed and *&^&%*$&&*%&%.  Frankly that goes for a 8-12" storm also... if we end up with some 4" weak sauce ordinary storm sure, if MD gets fringed again sure...if this euro ends up the final result we should be acting like those people in philly after the eagles won the super bowl.  We haven't had a widespread storm like that in years.  We don't live in Vermont.  A 10" snowstorm is a freaking huge win. 

4) The DC-Baltimore area has had 10 HECS storms since 1950 total...and worse only 1 of them came in a la nina winter.  1.  1 more than none.  in 75 years.  So get that out of your heads.  If we do get a HECS then act like you just won the weather lottery because you did.  Frankly we've only even had 8 MECS (this is subjective but by my count) storms in the last 75 years in a la nina.  But that's way better odds than 1.  8x the odds lol.  So I think MECS is probably the reasonable high end expectations here and that should be totally fine.  That's still a super rare outcome!  When I said I think this happens and we have a good chance at a big snowstorm before the winter is over...I wasn't ever thinking HECS.  I was picturing a 8-12" type storm.  

 

hell yeah

7 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Dude, shut the fuck up

that was one of his funniest posts

I mean the fact that the GFS gave us (well most of us) snow makes it a win.

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

As much as most of us are sitting here saying the GFS is trash, every single one of us has at least some level of concern. Definitely not panic, but if the euro or cmc even begin to tick towards the gfs and the gfs doesn't budge, you gotta raise an eyebrow.  

it's too early for me to care about the gfs

but yeah if the euro loses the storm then it's probably not coming back

If 18z gfs folds you're not going to be able to stop this

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Was this your "don't make me stop this car" speech? 

I WILL TURN THIS STORM AROUND

gosh it'd be nice to have a storm where we don't have to agonize over the thermometer

Just now, AlexD1990 said:

Can't say ive ever seen it even at that range.

i mean 2016 comes to mind everything was teal wasn't it

for days?

that's more than i want can we give some back

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

These are the most recent verification scores I found for day 5 H5 verification.  

ECMWF: .946

UKMET: .928

GGEM: .924

GFS: .919

The euro and UK have been 1 and 2 since about 2006 consistently.  The GFS used to run 3rd but was overtaken by the GGEM after its major upgrade in 2022 and since the GGEM has been running consistently ahead (if only by a small margin) the GFS.  

but that's total right

has anyone checked just for snowstorm verification numbers

I'm mostly kidding here

1 hour ago, StormyClearweather said:

they better give us the storm as recompense

Snow started in Derwood

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Evergreen worry in this subforum.

1 minute ago, EstorilM said:

I’m not too worried about temps (though I don’t expect anything to stick for a while, up to 35 now.) 

 

DPs are still below 20 here though, that’ll definitely take a while to erode away. 

I mean the DP is 18 here which surely isn't bad?

The highest the DP can even get is 32.

What was the DP before January 6

I almost saw the sun in Olney for a second

MCPS promises to make the decision about tomorrow by 7pm today.

4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

MOCO and DCPS held strong!

my son is furious

Something happened

2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

It's funny because if it was the opposite way and all the snow from the GFS was in the DC area nobody will be saying that lol

they'd be saying it twice as hard if DC was the bullseye