ThisIsNotSparta

El Nino is fading.. get ready for a spike in hurricane activity. 12-13 before, now 14-16 I think.   Hadley Cells are really far north so look for SE, US possible hits. 

Niño is fading? What? The signal for an event becomes stronger each day, plus the very cold MDR will act to suppress the season. If both manage to not affect the season, the EPAC will hurt it anyway

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Looking at this graph the tendency may be La Nina for another 1-2 years. Aesthetics are 60% chance it falls in the Fall I think, although it will be hard to cool the subsurface disregarding Weak La Nina chances. 

SOI is also up since 1998.

You can see the anomalously westerly winds popping up along with warmer SSTs, though. The spring barrier has passed, and it looks like El Nino will be in place in the winter.

Still looking uncertain, but I'd say a normal season is the best bet right now. It's whether the MDR can warm up and if so, how much, and when El Niño sets in.