Freshgeek

1394

First High Risk: April 30th

7 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

Is anyone concerned that these early storms going up across the moderate risk area might keep a lid on things? We’ve seen so many Dixie events ruined by this in the past, particularly 4-27-2014 which, outside of the Vilonia tornado, didn’t do nearly as much as it could have.

It's all north of the warm front. The warm sector is open with minimal cloud cover, so they shouldn't affect instability much at all.

1137 Tornadoes

First High Risk: April 30th

We're entering 2019 without a drought in the plains, which is unusual in recent years. 2018 was fairly active outside of the peak season in April and May. The fact that we're not going to have a record low tornado count despite the extremely disappointing traditional peak season is a good sign to me. As long as the jet doesn't take another Canadian vacation in May, we should be better off than we were this year.

Consider me cautiously optimistic. 

1 minute ago, SENC said:

your screaming MUH FEELING, MUH FEELINGS..!!!

While  not presenting one IOTA of hard Data..   

*You're

and you're the one projecting your hurt feelings. You are literally one of like two people who are still trying to downplay this. So either you are some kind of super genius that knows more than every expert on these kinds of storms and the damage they produce...

or you're wrong.

I bet I know the answer. 

2 minutes ago, SENC said:

It was over-hyped..  Making "excuses" on buildings that are NOT, or WERE NOT, "constructed" up to CURRENT building codes isn't Making excuses.. It's called facts.. I presented MY Data NOW present yours, or  Shut ______.. 

The BILLIONS of dollars in damage and AIRCRAFT reconnaissance say THAT you data is NOT telling the whole STORY. You dont WANT to listen to THE experts and PEOPLE who know more than you, all WHILE ignoring the evidence YOU asked for because...reasons.

No amount of random CAPITALIZATIONS will make you correct. 

1 minute ago, SENC said:

How about reading the links instead of insulting someone?

I don't need to look at cherrypicked data to know that this hurricane was extreme and not at all overyhyped. You complained that this storm didnt produce damage that resembled Andrew, then you saw it this morning and started back tracking and making excuses.

You are wrong and not willing to admit it. That is all.

And calling you wrong isn't an insult.

Just now, SENC said:

That's all good, I got thick skin.

I have DATA that says otherwise.

7 minutes ago, SENC said:

This actual data seems to indicate that Michael was hyped beyond what it really was.

 

 

What's it like to be so consistently wrong about something and then completely refusing to admit it?

Where is SENC now?
 

8 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Yikes...

That sounding is super contaminated by ongoing convection and not representative of the actual atmosphere.

I have no idea what to expect this year, but I want to play as well.

Total Tornadoes: 1299

First High Risk: April 9th, in MS and AL

To everyone who bailed on Central Nebraska, I guess I need to thank you lowering the traffic congestion, lol. Coming north from Moore, OK, I kept watching the models as they showed my original target, Grand Island, NE being under cloud cover. I considered changing my destination to somewhere in north central Missouri, as it would be about the same driving distance. If it was just me, I wouldn't stress out about this so much, but I was bringing my mom, girlfriend, and a dog with, so I felt so much more pressure.

We stopped in a McDonald's parking lot in Wichita, KS and I debated for like 30 minutes as to where to go. One model run showed that Missouri was the better choice, and the next would say Nebraska. Finally, I forced myself to choose and I decided to go to my first choice, Grand Island, NE.

The whole way there I was second guessing myself. When I wasn't driving, I was thinking about how terrible I would feel if I blew this, and I couldn't sleep. Even when we got to Grand Island, I never feel asleep as I kept looking at model data to see if we should move further west, and I never got a clear answer.

The morning comes and one of my coworkers was also going to Grand Island, but wasn't as willing to move. I could see clouds to our south and southeast, but our southwest was clear, save for a few cirrus. Time kept passing and I finally said that I'm willing to take our chances at the Grand Island Walmart Supercenter parking lot on the south side of town.

As the eclipse started, the clouds stayed away and I was paranoid that something would block our view of totality. But as we got closer to 12:58 pm, there was nothing moving into the path of the sun and moon. the lights dimmed around us, and it was a very eerie feeling. Like, if you stepped outside and had no idea what was going on in the sky, you could tell that something was off. The temperature began to drop and we could see the sliver of the sun start to fade through our eclipse glasses. Finally the sun was completely blocked and we got the experience of a lifetime.

My girlfriend had her tripod set up and was able to take some great pictures, but this one of the eclipse with Mercury to the left is my favorite.

I just sat in the grass and took it all in. The stress of planning, travel, and spending money was all worth it for this moment.

If you missed this one, start planning now for the 2024 eclipse. It will be worth it, especially if it's your first one.

We got home at 9 pm last night, and I slept like a rock.

Models are being less and less friendly for Nebraska. I'm thinking there will be a 75% chance that I'll be watching clouds get really dark in or around Grand Island on Monday.

Yes plz for all us Nebraska eclipse chasers.

4 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said:

Will be in Hastings, NE, hopefully in between shortwaves. Anyone from here targeting NE?

 

I'm targeting Grand Island and maybe NW towards Ravenna. I'll be coming in from OKC on Sunday night to Grand Island, sleeping in the car and head NW at dawn. GFS keeps showing scattered/broken cloud cover, so that has me a bit nervous.