Disco Lemonade

9 hours ago, eyewall said:

Remembering the great one: January 25th, 2000 in Southern Pines:

Simply incredible, one day I hope I can re live a storm like that. I know you've posted that once before wasn't that off midland?

Hard to ignore this

Boom!!

I say let it rot

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Day 9 h5 totally different this run . I mean it is 216 hours out and  East ridge went poof

Interesting to say the least gotta check the ensembles later to see if there was any change. If so, it could be an indication the pattern change is not smoke in mirrors. 

6 minutes ago, southernskimmer said:

Just missed me 

What a total fringe job this whole deal turned out to be  

I consider it pay back for last year when we had the sandhills special... I knew I'd pay dearly for that one and here it is. 33 and rain for 2 days lol.

Definitely not sweating it though, I'll get mine this winter without a doubt 

Still 50/50 I think in sp, however, it looks like we could go all snow at any moment. 

Whoa 850s dropped like a stone

Just now, WinterWishes said:

Sleet rain mix. Rockfish NC, Hoke Co

Really? That's coming as a surprise, did you just start getting precip there? Been watching heavier returns begin to move into FAY wondering if maybe that may cool the column some.

fwiw hr 33 0z gfs

hr 36

Wow wasnt expecting this

Just now, Poimen said:

It's Kuchera, so I've been told. 

It is this is non kuchera 

Interesting, GEFS really stalls it out.

High really has the "banana" look 

GEFS is slower, maybe a touch south in some spots.

4 minutes ago, griteater said:

But I want the noise ringing from Hattiesburg to Myrtle Beach at this time range! 

No wiggle room

Check this out, I like the grouping of lows beginning to cluster around the southern Mississippi/ Georgia border. Then look at the next frame, cluster appears to have moved due east. Perhaps this may imply a track closer to the gulf?

7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

GEFS increases again, especially NW NC, SW & Central VA.

Comparison of 12z & 18z

 

Nice, wish I could be at the cabin this weekend. Winter looks to be getting off to a good start. Hopefully a sign of things to come!

Oh well, no worries we'll get ours in central NC this winter. Good thing it's still early. I think this will do well in the NC mountains, possibly a snow to rain situation as the low get worked up off the coast. Then as it pulls away I'd bet we see some flurries through the ped and sandhills... which lets be honest would be a huge win, more then I saw during the entire 2011-12 winter.

looks like GEFS continues the idea of a weaker low further south. This is what we want to see.

1 minute ago, griteater said:

500mb looked good and normal thru 141 on the GFS, then it pulls in the northern stream from the NE trough at the end....weird run, no need to sweat that one

Agreed, I feel as though we may be splitting hairs here. Funny it's actually colder...