rmo09001

The holiday is only adding to the level of paranoia around the forums. It's palpable. Anyway, 7 days out and appreciate those providing objective information, even if it's difficult to sift through to find. Everyone freaking out on one side or the other just needs to relax and get some perspective. 

28 minutes ago, RI Rob said:

To drive from Boston to Trenton on Thursday and back to Boston on Friday... Tough decisions.. 

How about driving from San Diego to CT beginning early Wednesday. I'll be making the home stretch from St. Louis beginning around 4a on Friday. Watching this threat like a hawk to figure out what the hell my contingency plan is going to be, lol. My hope is for this threat to lag to the 24th. 

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Everyone, please take 5-10 minutes to read the posts from late November.....

You seem skeptical about things materializing and want to “wait to see it happen.” We get it. No need to continuously post the same POV. 

1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said:

So in this era of supposed global warming - we now have "Atmospheric River Events".

We used to call them … wait for it … storms.

We get all this breathless reporting as if we never had weather before.  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11525523/Atmospheric-river-event-crashes-California-West-coast-millions-brace-storms.html

I guess the media needs something new to replace the scary "polar vortex".

Uhm, what? Come live in CA and you’ll understand. It’s not a gimmicky term. We have “storms” and we have storms that set up with atmospheric rivers. They can be mutually exclusive.

39 minutes ago, psv88 said:

57 degrees at 9 am on December 7. Helluva way to run a pattern change 

Lol and we’re topping out at like 58 in San Diego today.

Exciting to see and will be following allow. Appreciate the information y'all share. I'll be back "home" for the holidays in CT, so it'll be interesting to see how the second half of December into January is looking as we progress. Very much hoping for a shot or two... haven't seen snow since being in Yosemite in early 2020.

2013 was an awesome winter in CT with back to backs in February. We got a ton at UCONN.

That’s you Buff!

Including the cities of Orchard Park and Springville
640 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, heavy lake effect snow.
  Additional snow accumulations of 8 to 16 inches in the most
  persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. For the
  Winter Storm Watch, heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 9 inches or more possible in the most
  persistent lake snows. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

Maybe a 3-4 hour lull then a fairly steady stream from midnight-7a before it moves up north.

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hamburg May catch a break for a few hours anyways. 

Agree, based on the radar anyway. Not much backfilling on the northern edge, so Hamburg should get some relief for a while (from the heavy stuff at least).

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Im in a much better spot then orchard park for this event. 

ya, was suggesting OP hitting 54" is a case to be made for higher totals in Hamburg. Radar does look like it wants to keep heading south, but we'll see!

12 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

probably a bit inflated 

Maybe not...
 

Orchard Park                 54.0 in   0400 PM 11/18   Trained Spotter

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

38 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The models show another 2-3 feet by tomorrow night.

Think the band stays over southtowns long enough for that? Seems like a lot of movement (noticeably north) tomorrow, then a relatively quick hit on Sunday as it comes back down and swings through.

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Does not look like it'll last long...the HRRR and most other models showed a close approach 18-20Z then the band nearly falling apart entirely for awhile this evening before re-organizing and moving over those areas 04-11Z or so.

Yep, you can see it begin to sag south after that recent push north on radar.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=BUF-N0Q-1-24-100-usa-rad

14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

13.2" since last measure, wiping at 215. 47.1" so far.

So still seeing 3" rates it seems. Radar showed some slowing in the last hour or so, but now it looks like the band is edging slightly North with heavier returns filling in ready to roll through Hamburg again. 5 FEET is looking likely.

...Erie County...
Orchard Park                 36.0 in   1020 AM 11/18   Public
Hamburg                      33.9 in   0844 AM 11/18   Public
Hamburg 1.9 NNW              33.9 in   0900 AM 11/18   COCORAHS
2 SW Blasdell                31.0 in   0945 AM 11/18   Trained Spotter

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

13 minutes ago, yoda said:

Where is this?

Lackawanna

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ridge east of New England on the UKMET and Euro is just slightly stronger than the CMC. So the UKMET and Euro linger the convection into Saturday. Probably need a few more model cycles to pin down the exact timing of the front.

Gotcha, appreciate the additional context. Getting married on Friday near Hudson, NY. Rooting VERY hard for a quicker solution to be realized.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro and UKMET continue the heavy rains into Saturday since they have a stronger WAR than the CMC and GFS. 
 

 

I don't have access to the UKMET surface maps, but the Euro's appeared weaker at the surface over the last few runs. The 00z basically gets the rain through the metro around late morning on Friday. I'm just a casual lurker who mostly follows winter storms, so definitely outside my comfort zone. That said, curious what signals you see that would favor rain continuing into Saturday.

I have a selfish reason for needing this rain to get out of here as soon as possible, so I am also biased and rooting hard for at least a model blend of the GFS/EURO

5 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

The GFS is back showing a more progressive solution the last couple of runs for the mid/late week event, not buying that at all.

Why’s that? Selfishly, I’m praying for the GFS to be right, or at least a outcome that is more progressive than what the Canadian/Euro show. I’ll take middle of the road :)