Supercane

11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I wouldn't get sucked in too hard.  The surface temp profile is abysmal.  The cold air feed is weak and what looked like a sure all frozen event in the low 20s a couple of days ago is going to end up being mostly rain or sleet with temps in the low to mid 30s for a long time.

Yeah the usual NW trend really screwed us over. The HRRR and NAM are interesting enough to keep watching in the very slim chance this overperforms -- but no reason to expect more than an inch of snow (and extra sleet) in the southern half of Wake given the issues you outlined, imo.

9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Where the heck is the sleet?

Pack, let us know how far the RGEM ticks SE.  It will.  That is a Cold Rain Guarantee.

I'm ashamed to admit it but the latest HRRR and NAM have sucked me back into this. We can still do it!

41 minutes ago, packbacker said:

I don't think we will have to worry about that.  The good news I think we will either be snow or rain and from the looks of things it seems like the latter.  The only models showing rain was the 4km NAM and its not pretty.

Maybe some freezing drizzle tomorrow afternoon.  Some more good news we won't be holed up in our houses this weekend, roads will be fine.

Our climo has changed, we just can't get snow.  

I wouldn't necessarily say our climo has changed. We went through terrible snow droughts in 1990-1995, 1997-1999, and 2005-2008. We're just not very good at getting snow.

Of course I have hit the bottle tonight to celebrate (read: forget) this event so perhaps I missed your sarcasm in that statement.

2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

note to self: never doubt the nam when it shows a warm nose.

And always go with the warmest model. I've been pretty bearish on this storm for a while but still expected a couple inches of snow (or at least hoped for it). Now I'm not sure even that is doable, at least in and south of Cary/Raleigh. We never learn.

Always, always fear the NW trend, even in the last 24 hours. 3 days out I want the jackpot in Wilmington.

The NAM bothers me. But if I had to pick 1 model to not be on my side, it'd be the NAM.