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SnowLover22

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Posts posted by SnowLover22

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

    I’m actually glad about that...when the GFS of old used to sniff things out a week or so in advance it would lose them 5 or so day out only to catch on again a couple days before. This event will happen. It might be elevation driven but someone in western, central the southern tier is getting the first accumulation with this system 

    Might be time to buy an ice scrapper for my car. Shame.....I was hoping I could hold off another month.

    2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Windspeed said:
    6 hours ago, SnowLover22 said:
    I know it was intensifying up until landfall. One can wonder how much stronger it would have gotten if it had another day over water. 185 mph? 190 mph?

     

    That's a little complicated to be certain. Granted, speculation here; but two points: 1) It would not have needed a full day at the rate the pressure fall it was experiencing into landfall to have become a more intense. Between 4:30AM and 10:30AM CDT recon missions recorded a pressure drop from 937 mb to 923 mb. The last pass recorded 919 mb at 12:30PM CDT. A mere six more hours over those above-normal GOM SSTs and exquisite upper tropospheric conditions and it would have likely bottomed out around 910 hPa, taking into account some leveling off as well. At that rate of pressure fall and gradient increase, even nine more hours we would have seen Michael flirt with 150-160 kts (175-185 mph) winds. 2) On the other hand, the eye was also contracting and a concentric band was beginning to form. So given too much more time, very probable that an ERC would have most likely initiated given another full 24 hrs, and we would have likely seen Michael level off and weaken.

    Yeah and I guess it was flirting with MPI so it couldn't have strengthened too much more. Would have naturally leveled off........  even without an ERC.

    2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    48 minutes ago, Calderon said:

    Had it made landfall 15 miles farther west, it would've easily been a good $5bil more damaging and practically wiped out much of PCB and downtown Panama City with surge. Also would've completely destroyed my parent's place by St. Andrews State Park if not by the 160mph winds then definitely the 14ft surge versus the wind ripping the roof off and ripping siding away.

    It was surreal being stationed at Keesler AFB and watching it unfold relatively not far away.

    I know it was intensifying up until landfall. One can wonder how much stronger it would have gotten if it had another day over water. 185 mph? 190 mph?

    Major Hurricane Delta

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    GFS and ECMWF trend the past few days didn't really have any upper or mid level shear until the 12z run. Past few days had very light VWS beyond the steering flow. So I guess using models to forecast is chaotic at best these days. Might as well pound me head against an anemometer.
     

    What do you think of the HWRF. It weakens Delta just below major status before the 1st landfall because of shear. 

    • Like 1

    Major Hurricane Delta

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Amped said:

    Looks like concentric eyewalls on sat and radar even though there's no sign of it on recon.  Both eyes are pretty small so recon might have missed a second wind max.   That would explain why the pressure isn't tumbling like wilma and the eye is having trouble clearing out.

    if true that is good news

    STS Alpha

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    In regards to Subtropical cyclones, I wonder why this is 

    Quote

    Subtropical cyclones with hurricane-force winds of 33 m/s, (119 km/h, 64 knots, or 74 mph) or greater are not officially recognized by the National Hurricane Center. Once a subtropical storm intensifies enough to have hurricane-force winds, it is then automatically assumed to have become a fully tropical hurricane.

    Is it because it is assumed that it is a meteorological impossibility for there to be a subtropical storm that has at least 74 mph winds?

     

    Upon further research, it seems there was a subtropical storm that was not classified as a tropical storm that had wind speeds at 70 mph. So is it that far-fetched that you could have a "Subtropical hurricane"? Sorry about being off topic. I have just wondered about this for a while.

    @Windspeed

    Quote

    Throughout May 1972, a series of weak troughs moved across the eastern United States. In the third week of the month, an upper-level cutoff low developed along one of these troughs, located southeast of the United States and removed from the Westerlies. The origins of Alpha were from a surface low northeast of Florida, associated with the larger-scale, cold core upper low.[1][2] It organized, and late on May 23 it could be classified as a subtropical depression, east of the Georgia/South Carolina border.[3] While southeast of Hatteras, North Carolina, a developing ridge blocked its northeast motion, and so it slowed to turn to the southeast. On May 25, a small, intense low-level center organized rapidly, and by the next day it attained gale force winds, by which time the storm turned southwestward.[2] At 1600 UTC on May 26, the National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Subtropical Cyclone Alpha, when the storm was about 225 miles south of Cape Hatteras.[4] Around that time, it reached its peak winds of 70 mph (110 km/h).[3]

     

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