SnowLover22

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

BS IMO.

BS that the Nina will weaken or bs on a snowy winter or both. Which one is it?

Dec 20th is the one 

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Worth pointing out that Central America was hit very hard and we shouldn't forget that. Though Louisiana was certainly beat up this season, the US still has the resources to mitigate and assist our fellow citizens. We shouldn't forget them either. That being said, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua and the SW Caribbean were already struggling. Millions of of people are suffering there economically. Now we have a humanitarian crisis as many localized regions are currently devastated. This was a horrific hurricane season.

Pretty cool that the season ended with a bang (literally). 

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

P27 and call it a winter 

I really do not think you are serious are you? 12-15 inches in December and nothing the rest of the way?

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This look

With that SW-NE ridge axis across Canada centered just north of Hudson Bay is actually a really good one that has lead to many moderate snow events in our region historically.  I’m not getting into the “but will it happen debate”. But I am of the mine it’s better to look good than bad. Last year proved having the long range look awful all winter isn’t a good thing.  Additionally seeing the pattern look nothing like a typical Nina (and that feature is not way out in fantasy land) is a positive development. The pattern analogs are littered with nino years right now. And even Nov 1995 in there. Sometimes we get lucky and the atmosphere just does something crazy. Not saying I feel optimistic yet...but there are positive signs. 

are there specific analogs to it being a Nina but the atmosphere looking nothing like that. If so how did we do those years? So I guess the question is are there analogs to us doing well in Nina years because the atmosphere did not respond to what was expected.

13 hours ago, yoda said:

Barring a last second storm... I think we can close the books on this record hurricane season and actually turn out the lights... finally lol

Kappa is the next storm on the list. Looks like there is a good chance for "subtropical storm kappa" out in the open Atlantic. NHC currently has 30% odds through 5 days.  It would be appropriate if we ended the season on Kappa to "cap off" the hurricane season. 

2 minutes ago, Quixotic1 said:

You meant “country” right?

I think he actually meant county

5 hours ago, UIWWildthing said:

Three months after Hurricane Marco the Pacific responded: 

you should really reference your sources

1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I'd choose that one as well.  Tough, but still, 2013-14 was gate-to-gate winter pretty much.  No HECS, but several moderate events.  When even @Bob Chill says he was exhausted and nearly tired of tracking at the end, you know it was a good winter!  And it snowed on my birthday in late March, so that wins for me!  Don't get me wrong, I loved 2002-03 of course especially as it came on the heels of a winter (2001-02) that totally sucked around here so it was a refreshing change.

anyone know if he is okay? his last post was a little before the pandemic turned this country upside down. 

2 hours ago, cptcatz said:

With nothing showing on any global models now, it looks like the season may be a wrap.  Quite a crazy season.  I think the most impressive stat is out of the 13 hurricanes, 10 made landfall at or near maximum intensity.

famous last words dude. Do not jinx it. 

9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The Moderna news is bigger than the Pfizer news. Higher efficacy and lower temperature needed to store. I cannot wait to not wear a mask at the gym again and to travel international! Big plans next year. Kilimanjaro hike got moved twice already, now schedule for Nov. 2021.

Maybe ill be able to study-abroad in Australia after all.

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

eta name should be retired...

it can't be retired. This has already been talked about. 

5 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I have updated the two scoring tables for Theta's addition to the never-ending total (29/12/5 now).

you will be updating it again within the next 48 hours. 

1 hour ago, sojitodd said:

Edging ever closer to Louisiana...just sayin'.

 

This storm has apparently killed up to 250 people(251 it appears so far) in Central America(at least half in mudslides) at this time. What does it take for a storm to have it's name retired?

Greek letters don't get retired. It would be known as "ETA 2020" but the name does not get retired. 

6 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

 

So you can see from the plot that they flew a circle. Each of those wind barbs is a data point. They weren't embedded in the circulation, they flew a circle inside the eye. They basically found an opening and took it. 

I assume that means you can identify a mesovort with the radar. I would assume they used their plane radar to know when/where to exit.

7 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

The biggest thing that makes me think that is the timing of the aborts being almost identical.  With that tiny of the eye it will be very hard to avoid the mesovorts.  I'm thinking the turns around the eye were to time the exit to avoid mesovorts.

what makes flying through mesovorts even more dangerous than the eyewall itself?

7 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Umm...

I think the argument can be made that the data is there for a low-end cat 5 at least.

2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

If the VDM verifies the 922 mb, that's a 5 mb drop in 1 hour. This is still rapidly deepening. Bit of a chase to see how long the eyewall can continue this pace until the outer band takes over. This probably does reach Cat 5 tonight.

 

 

is an eyewall merger out of the question. Maybe the concentric band just merges with the inner eyewall and does not take over?

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not likely to find a lower pressure, but winds could still be impressive with additional sampling of the eyewall.

LOL though  

 

intentional or not, great call

LOL what a let down hahaha 

extrapolated: 927 mb

SFRM:  knots

extrapolated: 994mb .3 degrees from the eyewall. If it is sub 900mb that is one hell of a pressure gradient

next update should do it if not close

Okay officially "in storm"

revising my guess same pressure as my guess before but ill up my wind guess to 200 mph (EF5 Tornado)