greendave

19 hours ago, GaWx said:

Fwiw hot off the press this is the average of the last 12 CFS 4 member ens runs for 2/22-2/29: this follows a mainly pretty mild first half of Feb; then sustained significantly colder first comes in near midmonth and intensifies; strong +PNA and -AO 2nd half of Feb; also a weak -NAO 

Dr. Jonathan Wall with addl sources of evidence to support the CFS.

https://twitter.com/_jwall?lang=en

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

Sometimes you just need a Hail Mary!

Oh how I miss Boone winters....and football......and food....

53 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

We're late in the 4th quarter by then, at least in the upstate of SC...

Well - of 272 NFL games this year, there's a running average of 13.5 games that go to OT. So there's always that 5% of OT turning out in our favor....and look how much chaos ensues after the 2min warning. 

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

LOL ridiculous although the last place I want to be stuck is in Graham

Well - if you know what freezes over - i'll meet ya'll for a good plate of 'cue, burger, or a hazy IPA if that's your thing....lil' ol' Graham is coming around....there's even a little barcade we can rent out....do i smell a Spring Equinox party?

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Hey, look, the perfect storm track!

And....cold rain

1 mi ESE of Elon. Microscopic flurries. 

Just now, CentralNC said:

need to see some ground truth before I get too excited.  mountains dont count lol

point is - the atmosphere "appears" to be juicing up. And we already have groundtruthing in areas lacking echoes- most recently union co. nc

2 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Lol that is most likely the heaviest fantasy computer snow I've ever seen. Pretty wild the euro has a similar solution. I figure  I probably have about as much chance for that to happen  as winning the PowerBall.  

 

sharing is caring and winning is giving.... let's reel it in!

its already been eluded to - but radar beginning to liven up - particularly around Wadesboro, Albemarle, and most noticeably to the west - Wilkes County.

1 mi. ESE of Elon and i'm finally seeing flakes mixed in @ 7:09pm - 34.9 degrees

38 minutes ago, KyleEverett said:

Rock Hill and Charlotte Insert any SC or NC city/town here are really rough spots to be. So many storms to the west, north, and east of us.

#truth

Brad P. on board 4-6" bullseye on RDU - extending west to Burlington, as far south as fayetteville. 2-4" ring from GSO down to NW and W side of CLT.

I'll leave this here....posted at 11am. 

nervous anticipation in the "Burlington bullseye" nothing new here ya'll don't know- CAD always hangs tight here and overperforms - crazy gradient b/t my location ~2miles north of I-40 - and say SE side of Graham - never fails.

I will say - the track of this system is different than i ever recall, and as such the modeling of p-type changeover is extremely different in that there doesn't seem to be a "pocket" that hangs on - its a swift straight-line transition moving from SSE to NNW in a line from the SC border all the way to the VA border. We'll see.

Generator ready, gas tanks full, 10gauge 100ft cord arriving tomorrow. Did i mention we have a TON of old oaks 'round here? Hopefully sleet saves us - but flashbacks to Feb 2014 when we lost power for 6 days.

FWIW - the referenced storm dropped 10" in Burlington and definitely overperformed most forecasts. reel it in.

On 3/19/2021 at 3:45 PM, btownheel said:

No wonder I heard it so clearly. That’s maybe 3 blocks from me. Looks from that like it almost went right down University Dr.

 

 

So yeh, y’all can stuff that bust talk, at least here. Very glad I knew well in advance and had wife, daughter and our cats tucked away.

So - it started on a NW track out of Whitsett - but turned almost due east once it hit Williamson Ave. It crossed University Dr. but didn't go up it.

This all leads me to the other part of my observation and story. I believe (and yes I know its Preliminary) that the NWS damage survey missed the duration of the tornado. I witnessed the larger broad rotation, and heard it, well east of Williamson Dr. and have groundtruthed damage as far east as Rockwood Dr (near Turrentine Middle School) - i have not looked farther east than that. 

I'm attaching groundtruth points of damage to mostly downed trees - some impacting structures. The damage was strangely sporadic - never a noticeable path of limbs snapped in a line or path. Starting with the flipped daycare van @ Hwy 70 and WIlliamson - it was a tree here or there, some shingle/gutter damage intermittent, then nothing, then another large Oak, then 5 large trees all within a 500yd circumference - then nothing..

I suspect the tornado was on the ground twice as long if not more, than the preliminary report.

For those familiar with Burlington -after crossing Williamson Ave. the tornado turned due east and impacted the areas b/t Hwy 70 (S. Church St.) and Edgewood Ave. My residence is within the blue circle - and witnessed the rotation, intense burst of constant lightning for ~2mins, followed by a white wall of what i feared had turned into a larger wedge tornado. Thankfully the rotation that dropped to the ground was small and fairly weak as indicated by the video taken along S. Church St and passed roughly 0.5mi south of me. Yellow dots are rough locations of groundtruthed damage.

I can't believe i just said this in regards to putting Pre-emergent down....

"I'm gonna keep an eye on soil temps, but going to hold out as long as I can until we get a solid chance of rain."

At least we're behind schedule on soil temp avgs....

We got really close to issues here on the NW side of Burlington. But sitting at 33.8 and rapid melting - unless the overnight precip overperforms - should be issue free. Photo is from noon which is right when temps rose above 32.

Burlington looks to be a "sweet" spot - generator unboxed, fueled and ready (purchased 2 weeks ago - due mostly in part to this forum and the expertise - so thanks), new chainsaw chain and bar oil purchased, steak and pork chops and libations procured, 12gal. of ethanol free on the ready. Ya'll be safe and on the ready. 2014 event had power out for 4 days, 2003 reported 7-10 day outage, what will this one hold?  A soggy winter with 3.5" in MBY the last 5 days doesn't bode well for root balls on old Oaks that's for sure.

31.6 / 31.1 - will be watching like a hawk - maybe that generator purchase (for next week's (non) storm) wasn't such a bad idea....

7 minutes ago, hickory said:

15 miles NE of Greensboro. Currently sitting at 31.5 with ice still in the trees from this morning. I just came back from Burlington and it was no ice in the trees from what I saw. 

I'm in Burlington - and not very visible but you can hear the ice in the tops of the trees - I confirmed very little ice on front porch vinyl railing - but nothing on leaves, wood, metal (oddly enough) - but as we lose daylight - just a matter of time.

6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I wouldn't go to no extremes just yet... just keep checking back and hopefully their will be some consensus soon

I've been on the fence about a generator for quite some time now - today's the day. BTW - I mostly avoid Harbor Freight - but I was told their return policy is as easy as it gets - buy the extended warranty: best case keep it in the box unless needed (no warranty needed), worst case if it ever fails- drain fuel/oil - exchange at store no questions, and buy the extended warranty on that one. I will say - their Predator line unbeknownst to me are powered by Briggs&Stratton produced engines. I'd rather have peace of mind than an empty shelf come "go time"

Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said:

It’s notable to have ice storms in late March. I has to be one of the latest In recorded history 

The last one - photo is dated 3/18/14. - It was an overnight 3/17-3/18 storm if memory serves me.