Huriken

Current Day 3 SPC outlook:

SPC AC 130703

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING NORTH
   INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms, some severe, will spread across the Southeast
   and parts of the Middle Atlantic Sunday.

   ...Discussion...

   Significant large-scale forcing is expected to spread across
   portions of the Southeast and Middle Atlantic region during the day3
   period as strong mid-level flow translates into this region. Latest
   model guidance suggest a pronounced surface front will surge into
   GA/FL Panhandle early in the period then into the lee of the
   Appalachians Sunday evening. Frontal forcing is expected to aid a
   significant squall line along the wind shift as it advances east,
   aided by mid-level height falls. Strong shear profiles will support
   organized updrafts but the primary storm mode should be linear due
   to frontal forcing. Greatest buoyancy is expected to extend as far
   north as southern GA into coastal SC and there is some concern that
   a few discrete storms could evolve ahead of the front across this
   region. Have focused 15% severe probs for areas of potentially more
   instability where isolated supercells may evolve in addition to a
   linear MCS. Farther north across the Middle Atlantic, low severe
   probs should suffice where forecast buoyancy is expected to be
   considerably weaker. Even so, a strongly sheared forced squall line
   should advance across portions of NC/VA. Damaging winds are the
   primary threat with this convection.

   ..Darrow.. 04/13/2018

4 hours ago, jjwxman said:

CWASP Percentages via the 6z NAM on Sunday afternoon.

The NAM seems to be very bullish for Sunday's event. Taken verbatim, anything that develops ahead of the squall line would certainly be capable of producing tornadoes. 

D4 severe risk for VA down into FL

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0336 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

   Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
Latest runs of the medium-range models are exhibiting fairly
considerable differences from one another with eastward progression of an eastern U.S. cold front Day 4/Sunday.  The differences in handling of synoptic features become even more pronounced beyond, as the next Pacific trough enters/crosses the U.S. in the Day 5-8 time frame.

   Despite the Day 4 variability in the models, it is apparent that an ongoing line/band of storms will progress steadily eastward across the Appalachians early in the day, and then continue east across the Atlantic Coast states.  While warm-sector instability remains a substantial uncertainty -- in part due to variability in the speed of the frontal advance toward the coast -- the kinematic environment will support organized convection.  As such, will introduce a 15% area extending from parts of Virginia south to Florida, with damaging wind likely to be the predominant severe risk until frontal convection moves offshore.

SEL8

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 18
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1240 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southeast Georgia
     Coastal South Carolina
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM until
     700 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous storms are expected to develop
   across the coastal plain this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Some
   of these should be severe with a risk for tornadoes, large hail, and
   damaging wind.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 35 miles south southeast of Waycross GA
   to 55 miles north northeast of Charleston SC. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 17...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
   storm motion vector 25035.

   ...Grams

SEL7

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 17
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1020 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northern and central Florida
     Far southeast Georgia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1020 AM until
     700 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are expected through this
   afternoon, capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
   winds.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
   either side of a line from 60 miles west northwest of Jacksonville
   FL to 35 miles west southwest of Avon Park FL. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 26035.

Just thought I'd put this here...

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSWakefieldVA/status/953365789930909698

We'd be talking a greater threat if it weren't for the meager instability. Looks to be another case of a low CAPE/high shear event, but to be expected for this time of year, of course.

3 hours ago, FallsLake said:

As I said before, in this pattern of suppression we may have to pin our hopes on a clipper. Usually clippers stay just a little too far north for many on this board but with these massive highs and deep troughs we can now score. The last two runs of the GFS show something at ~ day 9. It's definitely too far out to get excited about but I believe this more that a big storm showing 5 days out.

6z GFS (similar to the 0z):

 

Better than nothin', I suppose. Hopefully it doesn't disappear or get squashed!

I'm bout ready for a warmer pattern. No snow, no cold!

Bring on the thunda! 

Let's take that HP and push it somewhere else! 

So are most of the models showing nada for the New Years "storm" too?

Why don't y'all just look at the positives in life. At least we got the cold! 

16 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Euro is another big hit!

 

 

Wow, this escalated pretty quickly for my area. I was only expecting an inch but it seems I could get 3+ inches now. Although it could go the other way around...