Hurricanegiants

I’ll take Weather for $300.

When a Winter Storm Warning that calls for 6-8 inches of snow and then turns into an Advisory with 1-1.5 inch(ES) of pixie dust laced with slush. 
 

What is: The Mid Atlantic from 2016-2021. 
 

Correct. Pick again. 

Assuming we will change to warnings by noon tomorrow? Then we fight the mix (snow sleet) line for 12 hours. Sounds like the best shot this winter. We’re not fighting the usual—I’ll take it. 

Think LWX will start canceling the winter weather advisories in some areas? That may be the true kick in the teeth. But seeing them still there when the verbiage is now an inch or less in many areas—just painful. Pull it. On to next week. 

Wow. And to top it off—this confidence building boiler plate quote from LWX next week. 

A slight winter threat exists for Saturday and Tuesday. If these
threats materialize, it may cause travel disruptions.

It’s been a while since we have had an upgrade to the WWA. Today, would be a good day to break that pattern. 

1 minute ago, Yeoman said:

10% chance of 4".. lock it up!

When I first saw this, I thought sweet that’s the 4-8 inch/heavy snow potential drawing! I’ll show myself out with the hot dog. 

4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Come on GFS to make us feel a bit better.. then the EURO for the real better feel. NEED THAT NORTH TREND.. on Wave 2

 

I agree. Still time (not a lot) for some models to push this North and the vibe can flip in this forum this evening. Glass half full. Or if my unicorn thinking happens. Make that a full glass please. 

2 minutes ago, ILIKERAKE said:

Bust - Rain

Prediction - 1-8in

Boom - 8-25in

 

Lol  exactly. LWX holding somewhat strong with “generally 5-8 region wide”

Interesting. The WSW are from 3am to noon. That is rapid. 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Full tuck!!!

Words we just couldn’t quite get to last weekend. Finally (I mean hopefully)

I should know better than to pull up a forecast from the local Mets: “The weekeend looks mainly dry as a system Sunday more than liklely stays well southeast of the region. The arctic air we were watching for next week is now aiming at areas to our north.”

I mean really. Do they have to be such realists. Take the storm and the cold freeze. Ugh....these (last 4) winters. 

Hey while we await Dr. Nos arrival, question: I remember for years we would always talk about the jet stream—not something I’ve heard lately probably bc it hasn’t been close to our favor for the better part of 4 years. However, for this one, doesn’t it favor our odds a bit bc it is forming more to the south? I know that also increases % of OTS as well but...just wondering if this track (not that it’s defined yet of course) is better than the one last weekend for our purposes?

18 minutes ago, jayyy said:

another foot for NYC you say? 

I know. I’ve thought about that like 4..5..100 times today. 

I’m thinking now is the perfect time to set ourselves with a mindset of 1-3 inches by late Sunday night (including the squall on Friday)—-safe expectations. Until, of course, the weenie model that pops up with more ——and then, well, I fold like a cheap card table with disappointment of less than 6. 

I know I’m grasping here. Incoming weenie question: is there any precedent for a coastal surprise where it actually could drop 6 inches at this point or have we solidified the goods are gone? 10%? 20%? Trying to remember when it’s happened. I know 1997 maybe but that was called late the night before. 

And the kiss of death from LWX:
“Further South ,(I.e DC and surrounding counties) the precip amounts will be on the lighter side Monday and Monday evening. With snow accumulations less than an inch or two. “
ugh. This hobby—now you see it and taketh away 

So, thank goodness for the banter thread. I love this forum. It’s awesome to have this hobby. I love it. To that end, quite frankly, certainly this qualifies as a typical bust for DC and the surrounding counties. I’m all in for hope but how many times do we need to be shown the door when the forecast states “a lull but wait for round 2!!”  It rarely materializes. Once we start taking about the second round, it’s the kiss of death. I hope I’m wrong but as people get ridiculed for having hopes too high—walking away with 4....maybe 5 inches after the average model projection had 6-10 or more—I can’t find fault in the disappointment. I’m hard pressed to remember the last time the snow “picked back up” in this area due to a coastal bomb. Not to mention even up to 9:30 am, the model projection and banter said 10:00 am to 4:00 pm is the “heavy snow.”  That didn’t happen. Here’s hoping I’m wrong but 3-4 on Sunday with pixie dust at 4:00 pm presently??—I hope to be surprised. 

21 minutes ago, George BM said:

 

THIS! He thinks he has it bad with 2 feet. I'm right by Dulles and somehow only have 2.4" as of 10am w/ flurries. Perhaps extreme substance right by the epic snow-band? 

I know. I know. Never will forget the double quotation mark again. 

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Can’t believe you are complaining with two feet on the ground. Some people /s

HA! Good point. My math markings leave a lot to be desired. Good call. 2 inches...and that’s stretching the yard stick down. 

Dulles 2’—been essentially dry slotted the last hour and a half.  Time to run to the radar in a panic; knowing there is more but.....but.....

30 minutes ago, dukeblue219 said:

Why am I sitting here analyzing HRRR dry slots instead of enjoying the snow while it falls? 

Completely understand. It’s this addictive hobby where it can be pouring snow IMBY for 12 hours and I need somebody to tell me to stop staring at coastal models for tomorrow. Or even worse—long range. 

Hey a novice question here. But don’t we do much better when the weaker Low develops in the gulf coast region and feeds/redevelops to the primary Low off the NC/VA border?

it seems to me that, like our current situation, when the weaker Low comes from the west (farther North if you will) and we have to wait on that L to feed the coastal, we tend to bust more often as it becomes too far North. 

FWIW Local Mets for the 11:00 news essentially took 7-8 inches area wide—12 plus just north of Baltimore 

Got it. Thank you 

FWIW I just watched Bernie Rayno’s update. He wasn’t bullish—definitely cautious as he kept focusing on the upper level still being a rather large question mark to steer the coastal pivot etc...I don’t believe we have seen any models that lack that formation up to this point correct?