Ontherocks

11 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Interestingly many of the models hand a handle on this showing slightly warmer temps for a few hours in the mid levels before cooling back down. 

Wind is really starting to howl out there now...gusting over 20 here...yucky 38. 

At what time will we know we’ve missed our Hrrr or fv3 window...if we aren’t transitioned/wedged out by midnight? 

35.4/35.1. Pretty steady temps here in NEGA, constant drizzle. Come on, come on, come on. 

2 minutes ago, Lookout said:

fv3 still showing a changeover to very heavy snow for a few hours down to gainesville. Nam still says no and only shows a change to freezing rain toward sunrise.  Hrrr still showing a changeover to heavy sleet.  Going to be fascinating to see which model, the fv3 or nam, wins this one. 

If the NAM wins, it seems that the freezing rain could produce some significant damage. It’s interesting as it seems the level of uncertainty with this storm could create a decent amount of impact, and not sure if people are prepared cause everyone confused about what it’s gonna do.....

39 minutes ago, Lookout said:

If i could have i would have took off to clayton again because i think they will do really well  but unfortunately there are things going on keeping me from doing it. At any rate, i'd be excited if i was you.  It looks like once mixed precip or snow starts mid morning tomorrow  it  shouldn't stop for a long time and It's just a matter of how much of which....although if that warm nose above 850 isn't as strong as advertised or rates are heavy enough it could very well end up being  mostly snow...except the light freezing stuff after the dry air punches in aloft sunday. 

Hope that rings true for Lumpkin/White county too....seems the warm nose may come get us, but also we typically do great with CAD....

9 minutes ago, Lookout said:

yep....850 mb low and thus winds are more easterly than southeasterly  in the upstate and north ga. it's very very close to snowing in much of ne ga by late in the day. The killer for north ga continues to be the warm nose the nam shows between 700mb and 850mb though but it's much cooler this run with it. Considering how heavy the precip is i wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of mixing though now just about area wide. 

Also, the trend in the models here lately is to be a little further north with that finger of precip. That has possible cooling ramifications for ne ga too as the air is colder over the western carolinas so after wetbulbing that air advects into north ga. It does north ga no good to have it so far south as the models have been showing until recently. 

Overall a much better look if one is hoping to see something other than freezing rain or rain in ne ga and a better overall snowy look for the upstate.

 

Will the fact that the rain has already arrived in NGA have an effect? Keep our temps cooler? This precip seems earlier, as there was suppose to be some sun today.....looks like the NAM maybe showed this some